Can the Gujarat Model Work Nationally?

CAN THE GUJARAT MODEL WORK NATIONALLY?

Economists, like astrologers, vary widely in quality and root bias. Both are into handing out prescriptions on how to improve one’s fortunes, and both do not worry over much about the burdens of efficacy or proof. By the time the results are out, astrologers and economists alike, have wrapped themselves in layers of protective caveats and codicils, or pushed off to the World Bank, IMF, the United Nations, or some professorial job/well paid think- tank abroad.

Some are mealy-mouthed about the actual growth of Gujarat during the Modi years, grudgingly admitting a higher trajectory, but caviling that it is still not all that great, not good enough to justify the hype and hoopla. These worthies need to be reminded of the difficulties of a state turning Right into market-driven economics, pushed by a dedicated but one state act of a Chief Minister.

This, while the country at large has been turning determinedly Left, in a paroxysm of statist socialism, orchestrated by a ruling party with a nostalgia for the seventies and eighties. Back then, majorities in parliament were the norm, and nobody in power circles talked about gauche things like money, or the necessary evil called ‘the economy’.

It was, instead, a high-minded orgy of employment over profit, social objectives over viability, ideology over truth, and other such stirring nonsense much beloved of the thinkers of the time. Remnants, no, entire continents, of this kind of date-expired belief still come from the worst run states, drowning in misery and squalor to date.

States such as Communist Kerala, which would be worse off than almost anywhere on this planet, if it were not for the hard earned Gulf money of millions of Keralites gone abroad. And West Bengal, ruined in mind and body by years of Communism, and now, muddle-headed populism. Its unjustified culture of entitlement without work and discipline, that has retarded Bengal. Or the gasp inducing backwardness of Bihar, where any stone thrown will tend to land on an anti-social of some kind, and any improvement, however miniscule, is still called an upswing.  

These states are also the loudest in proclaiming they have done excellently well, and Gujarat has achieved nothing compared to them. Oommen Chandy calls the Gujarat Model ‘a farce’, and well he might, because if he doesn’t laugh, he will surely have to cry.

Less than a year ago, Congress propaganda had it that the architect of the Gujarat Model, its Chief Minister Narendra Modi, had no takers outside the state borders of Gujarat. When this lie was nailed with the Modi Wave surging across the country, the attack was modified to include his model of governance. Meanwhile, Modi had grown in stature and popularity with talk of development, growth, jobs, industry, super-fast railways and the like.

Congress, smug in its assumptions, was waiting to pounce on the BJP’s Hindutva agenda when revealed, and, poor chaps, they are still waiting, even as the 7^th stage of polling is concluded.

 In between, alarmed at Modi’s success even as campaign head, the Congress tried their ‘Anybody but Modi’ tactic by having their media minions try and sow discord. They feverishly suggested the names of various other BJP leaders. This too fell flat, and Modi was nominated the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate after all.

NaMo meanwhile, kept working throughout with a vigour, stamina and determination not previously seen in Indian electoral politics. This degree of application and demonstrated leadership is a key, if intangible, element of the much vaunted Gujarat model. A system is only as good as its driver after all.   

Congress now said Modi had done nothing special to foster the relative prosperity evident across almost all parameters in Gujarat; it was the innate industriousness of the Gujarati people, and that he was just taking credit for it. Conversely, finding this line was actually perceived as back-handed praise, Congress switched tack once again: Now Congress said the statistics, even those compiled by national agencies outside Gujarat Government control, were fudged, the reality on the ground was different, only certain sections prospered, big business were the only beneficiaries, and so on.

The flummoxed Congress could not however explain how Modi had won three consecutive terms with healthy majorities, every time. Besides, there was the ever present communal slur, but belied by the fact that BJP has won, even the municipal elections in Muslim majority wards, not once by fluke, but time and again.  

Still to the Congress, Modi is a ‘Feku’,  a name coined by the substantially out-of-work Congress General Secretary Digvijay Singh, a minor royal, and author of a thousand outrageous quips. He is only rivalled in the arena of boomeranging insults, by fellow senior Congressman Mani Shankar Iyer. But ‘Mani’, to give him his quixotic due, laments his own irrelevance with the same prominence as he insults Modi and the Gujarat Model of development.

Actual Right-leaning economists, as opposed to politicians from the UPA or the regional parties, like Bibek Debroy, tend to praise the Gujarat Model, even placing it at No. 1 in the state rankings three years running now. And Jagdish Bhagwati from Columbia University, along with his colleague Arvind Panagariya, have made clear they want to contribute significantly to a Modi-led NDA government.

But, inevitably, then there are others, like the welfare economist Amartya Sen, and his chela Jean Dreze, who trash GDP growth and jobs/industry oriented Gujarat, and for that matter, all of Sonia Gandhi run India too, for its inadequate record on alleviating poverty at ‘the bottom of the pyramid’ as the late Management Guru Prahlad had it. They want more given to the poorest of the poor, never mind what it does to the balance sheet.

It does, of course, set the politician up as an annadata, a far loftier position to comfortably occupy, than wanting to be judged and juried on performance, like the erstwhile chai-walla  Narendra Modi. The Gujarat Model puts the cat amongst the pigeons. So it is natural to hear a lot of squawking and seeing feathers that fly.

(1,003 words)

April 30th, 2014

Gautam Mukherjee

THE RATTLED DYNASTS

THE RATTLED DYNASTS

Rattled to their back teeth by the spectre of an  electoral rout, Congress is desperately casting about for a way to reverse their predicament. Unable to convince anyone that giving waste-land in Gujarat to Gautam Adani at a concessional rate for him to set up job-generating industry is tantamount to crony capitalism, Congress strategists are looking around for new spit balls to throw.

They’ve mostly finished trying to malign Modi on the matter of his wife Jashodaben, as she is legally married to him still, and has not featured in his life for decades by mutual consent. Congress backed off from its mock horror and fake morality on this issue when confronted with the threat of the BJP going public with a number of illicit and juicy scandals concerning the Gandhi family, past and present, as well as a number of senior Congress ministers.  

Next, Farooq Abdullah of National Conference in Kashmir,  who was quoted just the other day saying that the Congress game was more or less up, and that it was ‘too late’ now. And that Rahul Gandhi should have joined the government at least ‘three years ago’ to establish his governance credentials. Overnight, the self-same gentleman is seen spewing intemperate and insulting fire and brimstone. Kashmir is a hot button issue, and Farooq going ballistic is either an oblique critique of Modi and the BJP at a minimum, or an effort to fan the separatist movement at the maximum, in order to polarise Muslim votes further in the rest of India.

Ironically, a communal riot is difficult to organise in the Kashmir Valley because there are no Kashmiri Pandits left there to attack! Still, son Omar Abdullah lost no time in blaming the Opposition PDP for the ethnic cleansing of Pandits, holding his own Abdullah dynasty blameless. Omar also expressed a mealy-mouthed hope that the Pandits would return to the Valley, and dared Modi to visit to campaign, inadvertently underlining the communal and hostile atmosphere rife there. With friends like this, Congress does not need enemies.  

The sudden rodent images, coming from Congress missile cum dynastic port-of-last-resort, Priyanka Gandhi, is understandable. The numbers, of deserting people, and dwindling probable wins, is enough to unnerve anybody. Coupled with the massive Congress corruption and culpability, it must be the stuff of nightmares.

Senior Congressmen have given up their electoral ghost. Many have been busy buying property abroad and shifting large sums of money out of the country. And some have found themselves nominated Rajya Sabha berths.

Rae Bareli and Amethi however must be secured as a sine qua non, because a Nehru-Gandhi kicked out of Uttar Pradesh, is a Nehru-Gandhi more or less on its way to be kicked out of politics.  Nevertheless, erstwhile southern bastions being considered, even this time; Medak, in now messed up Telengana, Chikmagalur in Karnataka and Alappuzha in Kerala. Still, to the heat and dust the dynasts must go, and wheedle out another victory out of their not so quiescent ‘pocket boroughs’. Going south, for insurance, in this keenly contested election, is not going to look so good, despite a surging Narendra Modi standing from both Vadodara and Varanasi and poised to win both.

But if either Sonia or Rahul, or both, actually lose in Uttar Pradesh, despite Priyanka pitching in, it will tell quite a story of terminal decline. But, I hasten to add, this may be as much of a pipe dream as Mulayam Singh’s persistent ambition to become prime minister.

Aggressive Priyanka, like milder brother Rahul, ailing mother Sonia, and over the last decade or more, husband Robert, live behind high walls and in protected compounds, surrounded by fawning courtiers. At least Robert had his hardscrabbling back history, full of bankruptcy, suicide, and sudden death, to draw practical experience of life from. Sonia Gandhi, coming from a modest background too, well appreciates the decades of benefits she has enjoyed by marrying into the Nehru-Gandhi family.  But Robert worked quite fast to monetise his influence with the dynasts, and became an instant fat cat with many toys to match.

The Gandhis themselves, uniformly low on education, and with little knowledge of economics or governance, always play the emotional card at the hustings. They have nothing to drone on about except the dynasty itself, its ‘greatness’ and its ‘sacrifices’, because theirs is a totally self-referenced world. 

So when Priyanka emerges into the light and thunder of electoral battle, she looks, to put it in her own words ‘baffled’ and ‘spooked’, just like her brother or mother. They can’t believe a real challenge can be mounted against them democratically. Priyanka is also apparently convinced, being the wife, and proverbially the last to know, that her husband Robert, an Anglo-Indian with the Errol Flynn moustache, is blameless.

Of course, the accuracy of Robert Vadra’s own description of India, run by his mother-in-law for the last decade, being a nation of ‘Mango people living in a banana republic’, tallies with the ease with which he defrauded it. So what if there is no legal wrong doing except in minor infractions, it is the limitless influence of the Gandhis over its functionaries and appointees that he put to good use. If  Rajat Gupta can go to jail for insider trading, so can Robert Vadra for the exercise of undue influence over government chief ministers, bureaucrats, real estate companies, and others.

Priyanka too is probably not the ‘pained’ and ‘outraged’ ingénue she pretends to be, because not too long ago when Robert allowed he might join active politics, she smiled her dimpled smile, and said she thought it was extremely unlikely, as he was too much the ‘businessman’. 

But Priyanka Gandhi Vadra is presently on the offensive, posturing about her ‘big heart’ and being an ‘insider’, invoking Indira Gandhi’s determination, promising to retaliate against BJP ‘lies’. It is ironic to hear her squealing about Modi’s crony capitalism, when a major beneficiary of the very thing levels the charge!

 Meanwhile, the Congress is losing credibility at an alarming rate.  Not only are Congress politicians, high, medium and lowly Congress ‘workers’ deserting, but erstwhile Congress intellectuals, voters cum supporters, urban and rural, rich, middle-class and poor.  

Now the last hope that Congress is nursing, is a wishful barrage of ‘internal assessments’ which are far more optimistic than the opinion polls, or indeed the B JP’s internal assessments.  Congress war roomers think, improbably, that it will win 140 seats on its own, presumably out of some 160, they have tagged as Congress leaning vote-bank seats. And then, they say, they are all set to prop up a third front government.  

(1,099 words)

April 28^th, 2014

Gautam Mukherjee

THE RAT DIARY

THE RAT DIARY

The sudden rat imagery coming from Congress missile cum dynastic port-of-last-resort, Priyanka Gandhi, is understandable. The numbers, of deserting people, and dwindling probable wins, is enough to unnerve anybody. Coupled with the massive Congress corruption and culpability, it must be the stuff of nightmares.

Senior Congressmen have given up their electoral ghost. Many have been busy buying property abroad and shifting large sums of money out of the country. And some, favourites like Kumari Selja from Haryana, have found themselves nominated Rajya Sabha berths.

The expendable old war horses, like Captain Amarinder Singh, the unpopular royal from Patiala, and Ambika Soni, the grandmother who was once a glamorous Sanjay Brigade Youth Congress figure, are fighting in the heat and dust of Punjab. It was fight or be counted out as politically useless, and so they will do their best.

Rae Bareli and Amethi however must be secured as a sine qua non, because a Nehru-Gandhi kicked out of Uttar Pradesh, is a Nehru-Gandhi more or less on its way to be kicked out of politics.

Nevertheless, erstwhile southern bastions being considered, even this time; Medak, in now messed up Telengana, Chikmagalur in Karnataka and Alappuzha in Kerala. Still, to the heat and dust the dynasts must go, and wheedle out another victory out of their not so quiescent ‘pocket boroughs’. Going south, for insurance, in this keenly contested election, is not going to look so good, despite a surging Narendra Modi standing from both Vadodara and Varanasi and poised to win both.

But if either Sonia or Rahul, or both, actually lose in Uttar Pradesh, despite Priyanka pitching in, it will tell quite a story of terminal decline. But, I hasten to add, this may be as much of a pipe dream as Mulayam Singh’s persistent ambition to become prime minister.

Aggressive Priyanka, like milder brother Rahul, ailing mother Sonia, and over the last decade or more, husband Robert, live behind high walls and in protected compounds, surrounded by fawning courtiers. At least Robert had his hardscrabbling back history full of bankruptcy, suicide, and sudden death, to draw practical experience of life from. Sonia Gandhi, coming from a modest background too, well appreciates the decades of benefits she has enjoyed by marrying into the Nehru-Gandhi family.  But Robert worked quite fast to monetise his influence with the dynasts, and became an instant fat cat with many toys to match.

The Gandhis themselves, uniformly low on education, and with little knowledge of economics or governance, always play the emotional card at the hustings. They have nothing to drone on about except the dynasty itself, its ‘greatness’ and its ‘sacrifices’, because theirs is a totally self-referenced world. 

So when Priyanka emerges into the light and thunder of electoral battle, she looks, to put it in her own words ‘baffled’, just like her brother or mother. They can’t believe a real challenge can be mounted against them democratically. Priyanka is also apparently convinced, being the wife, and proverbially the last to know, that her husband Robert, the Anglo-Indian with the Errol Flynn moustache, is blameless.

Of course, the accuracy of Robert Vadra’s own description of India, run by his mother-in-law for the last decade, being a nation of ‘Mango people living in a banana republic’, tallies with the ease with which he defrauded it. So what if there is no legal wrong doing except in minor infractions, it is the limitless influence of the Gandhis over its functionaries and appointees that he put to good use. If  Rajat Gupta can go to jail for insider trading, so can Robert Vadra for the exercise of undue influence over government chief ministers, b ureaucrats, real estate companies, and others.

Priyanka too is probably not the ‘pained’ and ‘outraged’ ingénue she pretends to be, because not too long ago when Robert allowed he might join active politics, she smiled her dimpled smile, and said she thought it was extremely unlikely, as he was too much the ‘businessman’. 

But Priyanka Gandhi Vadra is presently on the offensive, posturing about her ‘big heart’ and being an ‘insider’, invoking Indira Gandhi’s determination, promising to retaliate against BJP ‘lies’. It is ironic to hear squealing about Modi’s crony capitalism, when a major beneficiary of the very thing levels the charge!

 Meanwhile, the Congress is losing credibility at an alarming rate.  Not only are Congress politicians, high, medium and lowly Congress ‘workers’ deserting, but erstwhile Congress intellectuals, voters cum supporters, urban and rural, rich, middle-class and poor.

Now the last hope that Congress is nursing, is a wishful barrage of ‘internal assessments’ which are far more optimistic than the opinion polls, or indeed the B JP’s internal assessments.  Congress war roomers think, improbably, that it will win 140 seats on its own, presumably out of some 160, they have tagged as Congress leaning vote-bank seats. And then, they say, they are all set to prop up a third front government.  

(818 words)

April 28^th, 2014

Gautam Mukherjee

Brazen Corruption Is About To End

Brazen Corruption Is About To End

There is an uncanny resemblance in the political trajectories of Rajiv Gandhi and Benazir Bhutto. Both were hereditary scions of the top political dynasty of their respective countries and young prime ministers at the same time in the now distant eighties.

Both had spouses who were allegedly corrupt, and not much interested in the welfare of the people, but wielded great influence over their spouses. Asif Ali Zardari, a feudal lord, earned the notorious sobriquet of ‘Mr. 10 per cent’; and ‘Mr. Clean’ Rajiv Gandhi, was brought down from the greatest parliamentary majority this country has ever seen, by the squalid Bofors scandal.

It involved the purchase of some excellent Swedish field guns, 38 in number, some still serving the Army after all these years. The gun purchase involved unproven but smoking gun payola for Rajiv Gandhi and his family with bank accounts code-named ‘Lotus’. It also involved, mysteriously, close family friend, the Italian company representative from Snamprogetti in Delhi, the infamous Octavio Quatrocchi.

The scandal broke in Sweden, rather like the Augusta Westland helicopter scandal of recent times, that broke in Italy; and once again featured the self-same Quatrocchi, albeit out of reach this time.

The Indian government did not prosecute Quatrocchi in the eighties, and not only let him leave the country without hindrance, but years later, absolved him of any wrong doing, and gave him access to all the money allegedly obtained as commission from the Bofors deal, stashed safely in European and British banks. 

There was a clumsy investigation than meandered on for years, involving many foreign trips for officials of the government, with clear intent to be an eyewash. So nothing was ever proved against the Gandhi family, or anyone else, including the Hindujas, Quatrocchi, agent Win Chaddha, and many others who were duly investigated.  This is in keeping with most ‘for show’ government probes including two that examined the anti-Sikh pogrom of 1984. Still, it did Rajiv Gandhi and his reputation in. Soon after losing power, in the wake of the Bofors scandal, Rajiv was dead, killed on the campaign trail, blown up by Tamil terrorists in Tamil Nadu.

Evidence of Zardari’s immense wealth sprouted in the form of palatial homes in Britain, Dubai and the United States. He, like the widowed Sonia Gandhi, who soon took over the Congress Party here, became President of his PPP in Pakistan, immediately after Benazir was gunned down by Islamic terrorists in the garrison town of Rawalpindi, during her attempted comeback in the end days of the Musharraf presidency. He then did more than a single term as President of Pakistan as well. 

Sonia Gandhi’s wealth, has allegedly grown manifold over the years, from the ‘64 crore’ Bofors Scam days. It now reportedly runs into many billions of US dollars stashed in two banks in Switzerland and one, till lately, in the Vatican, Italy. The Vatican deposit came to light because she allegedly withdrew $10 billion at a go, because new banking norms in the Catholic citadel and ‘God’s Bank’, now involve disclosure of the names of account holders.  

The much read US website Huffington Post also suggested in a sensational report a few months ago, before  it was taken down abruptly, probably to avoid litigation, that Sonia Gandhi, is now amongst the richest women in the world, richer by far than the Queen of England.

Rajiv’s only son Rahul and Benazir’s only son Bilawal, are in the process of inheriting their respective political legacies, but coincidentally again, both are weak leaders, with little gift for sub-continental politics. They are also, by default, extremely wealthy. Ambivalent, misfits, with rumoured dissolute lifestyles. Both have made half-hearted netagiri efforts, but neither has been able  to    make his mark.

In India, Rahul’s sister Priyanka, likened by some, rather hopefully, to grandmother Indira Gandhi, is  seen as a possible alternative. Priyanka is also the mother of two children, unlike the as yet bachelor Rahul. But the stink of corruption in several highly lucrative land and property deals hangs in the air. Robert Vadra, Priyanka’s husband, seems to have benefited from the misuse of influence through Congress Chief Ministers in Haryana and Rajasthan, and prominent real estate giant DLF Limited. DLF, now one of India’s biggest private sector companies, in fact got started on its real estate development work in Gurgaon thanks to Rahul’s father Rajiv. It is, in a very real sense, a very small world.  

Congress lawyers cum spokesmen are loudly proclaiming that Vadra has broken no laws, because such massive influence peddling is not the same as specific legal infraction. Nevertheless, the flamboyant and colourful Vadra, once a handicrafts dealer and brass artifacts exporter, is cited nationally and internationally as the beneficiary of sudden and substantial wealth. Wealth of an order, acquired in a manner, that another person in his place could not have come by it with such consummate ease.

As a consequence, Priyanka’s poll prospects are considerably dented, at least till public memory fades.  In the meantime, she can certainly console herself that the Vadra family have become dollar millionaires many times over, thanks to the power of her Gandhi family, and her husband’s prowess at exploiting it.

In this election season, when the Gandhis in particular, and the Congress Party in general, have been extraordinarily vitriolic and harsh in their casting of aspersions and name-calling directed solely at Narendra Modi, they now find that it all seems to have boomeranged. Modi is going from strength to strength while the Gandhis, with no political traction, seem to be in terminal decline.   

The Congress problem is that there is absolutely no corruption to point to in Narendra Modi’s life, career or circumstances. In response to the hullabaloo on Congress corruption however, Modi has pledged to investigate expeditiously when the NDA government is formed. The stress however will be on preventing such rampant corruption in future, even as the law will be allowed to take its course on the tainted from the past, and in a time bound manner. 

Modi himself intends to keep his singular focus on development, because it is the only way to change the destiny of this country, mired in poverty and backwardness for a good third of its population.

The change coming up is indeed authentic, much desired by a people who have been let down for decades. Modi is a genuinely poor man made good, a workaholic determined to serve the nation. This has not escaped the notice of the voting public, who have noted the contours of this unique leader, and are responding with the Modi Wave engulfing the nation.  

(1,098 words)

April 23^rd, 2014

Gautam Mukherjee

Concentrate On The Essentials

Time To Concentrate On The Essentials

Narendra Modi’s rise to popularity and national leadership has been both awe inspiringly swift and spectacular. There must, inevitably, be several people who are jealous, both near and far, people who thoroughly underestimated him. And others who are feeling insecure because they have never been friends of Modi.  Even US President Obama has been quick to blame former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, somewhat fraudulently, for the anti-Modi American stance so far.

On his own part, NaMo has promptly suggested that over-zealous supporters of the BJP/NDA,  some purporting to be his own supporters as well, must watch what they say in this highly charged atmosphere during this election season. They should not say or do anything to stir up communal passions or hurt the sentiments of any section of the population. This tactic may be routine for the Congress, with their illogical, if truly impotent, sneering about fascism, communalism, divisiveness, poison, dictatorship etc. who nevertheless are indulged in their perfidy by most of the intelligentsia.

But are the fringe elements trying actually to undermine Modi and his development-first message? It may well be, given the obscurity of the people spewing the hatred. And are they possibly acting on behalf of those who don’t like the Hindutva agenda pushed to the back burner by the BJP/RSS of today? Or for others, with covert prime ministerial ambitions of their own? There are also those of the elderly old guard who fear redundancy in a future Modi government. All these elements are similarly apprehensive and motivated to dampen the public’s enthusiasm for Modi.

The fringe extremists who erupt from time to time into hate speech and bullying behaviour, airing their ignorance, intolerance and personal prejudice, are not doing this country, or the BJP/NDA electoral campaign, based on an even playing field brand of secularism, the blindest bit of good!

But such disruptive people are quite happy to sow discord for its own sake, irrespective of consequences, whether they be an Owaisi or a Togadia. Thankfully most people do not take such extreme views seriously.  Owaisi, nevertheless is something of a Congress pet, because his kind of savagery is more suited to its style of self-serving but divisive vote-bank politics.

And then there is the Congress candidate from Saharanpur, UP, one Masood, who threatened loudly to cut Modi into little pieces; is proud of having done so, and swears he will say so again, jail, prosecution, EC or no EC.  Rahul Gandhi thought it fit to go to Saharanpur, share the stage with Masood’s wife and brother, soon after Masood’s outburst, to campaign for his victory. Masood himself was in police custody at the time, but the Congress Vice President was apparently quite comfortable to show solidarity with the candidate. 

Narendra Modi personally however is determined to put development first, despite all these distracting noises. More so, because India is in terrible economic shape, and without generating growth, a tall enough order under the given circumstances, but without which, the new government will not be able to meet many of its   stated objectives, or indeed, the aspirations of the people. So compared to the challenge of achieving growth in a shrinking economy, all this snarling and posturing is irrelevant, trivial, and counter-productive.

Many Indian Muslims today, including some noted senior clerics, are aware of this charade. They want to put the fear-mongering theatrics of the Congress, SP, BSP, RJD, TMC, BJD  etc., who put on an unabashed if insincere play for Muslim votes, behind them. They want to vote for the sake of straight-forward progress and prosperity under Modi. The Muslim weavers of Varanasi, for example, have said they want the prosperity Modi has brought to their weaver brothers in Surat. They know Muslims have prospered in Gujarat in many fields, without a single communal riot since 2002, and they want Modi to run the country now.

The people of India who are voting for Modi now are quite fed up of communal politics, and  so is Narendra Modi. But this is perhaps difficult to digest for many people caught in a time-warp, including hundreds of well-known public intellectuals, who have made a profession out of fanning such flames, promoting old-time Nehruvian Socialism and hypocritical notions of pluralism without substance. These hollow theoreticians will be put out of business soon, and are therefore doing all they can to turn  the clock back. Back to a time when caste, sub-caste, creed, religion, class, education, cultural and geographical differences and so on, were the nuts and bolts ingredients of political calculation. They are casting shrill doubt on Modi’s pitch to promote the interests of ‘125 crore Indians’. They can’t believe their ears and are therefore suggesting it is all a lie.

Besides this, nobody in the Indian political  firmament ever wanted to be judged on performance before Modi, not from the BJP and Congress, and certainly not from the  ‘family-owned private limited’ regional parties. Modi has raised the bar in this also, providing the promise of a real accountability for this coming government, and all future governments.

Before Narendra Modi, there has never been a prime ministerial candidate who has risen to the position, by dint of merit and hard work, from poverty and a backward caste, without any family ‘influence’, and in the face of tremendous opposition. There has never been a  contender for the top job who has been a Chief Minister of a state before. This is a sign of a maturing democracy, a grass roots leader grown to seize the day, after 67 years, In a world generally ruled by money, patronage and massive privilege.  

Narendra Modi, B JP’s bold prime ministerial candidate, abused by his detractors day and night, has still captured the public mood for change; and the long established and much devalued power structure in the country is scheduled for an unprecedented overhaul and renewal.

(976 words)

April 22^nd, 2014

Gautam Mukherjee

Shame Has A Poor Memory

Shame Has A Poor Memory

Shame has a poor memory

Gabriel Garcia De Marquez

With the economy in sharp decline due to the neglect of a highly discredited government, electoral politics has temporarily displaced concern with economics. We are now in the thick of the slog overs of the campaigning and voting process, alongside the deepening onset of summer heat. Everyone is living on hope of a sea change in governance, and counting the passing days to the new government.

With about 25 days to go before the votes are counted, the Congress seems to know the outcome, and acts cornered, as if it is already defeated. This despite raising every negative point it can think of constantly in an effort to prejudice the voters against the BJP and the NDA.

The BJP too is sharpening its attack, particularly on the massive corruption allegations against Sonia Gandhi and her   ill-begotten  billions, and Robert Vadra, her exploitative and street-smart son-in-law. Many other famously corrupt Congress and UPA ministers are rightly worried about being investigated by the arms of the expected BJP/NDA government. However Modi himself, has made it clear that development, his main poll plank, will indeed be first priority.

Narendra Modi, acknowledged as a superior, even thrilling orator in his political rallies, has recently also given a series of lengthy one-on-one interviews on multiple TV channels as well as in the print media. He has answered searching questions in depth, with charm, finesse and authority, putting paid to those critics who were complaining that he was not available to answer questions. And the contrast with the childish and vacuous effort put up by Rahul Gandhi in his interviews could not be more stark! The Congress, which tried so hard to project Rahul Gandhi as its prime ministerial candidate has failed because the candidate itself is not up to the task.

This even as a disgraced but shameless government, which has wilfully brought business and industry to its knees, with high interest rates, scarce credit, corrupt banking practices, profligate allocation of natural resources, and spectrum, partisan behavior with the States, unforgiveable defence procurement scandals, high food prices, snail’s pace infrastructure development, critical power shortages, acute water deficits, disgraceful policing, slack law and order, poor international diplomacy, yawning intelligence failures, frequent Islamic terrorist attacks, border incursions etc.; still thinks nothing of attacking the BJP!

Congress, unashamedly, continuously tries to debunk the prosperous Gujarat model, lying about it being mere big business cronyism, while ignoring the 80 per cent development of small scale industry for example, besides Modi’s stellar track record in the crucially important area of agricultural development. Modi wants to give farmers a 50 per cent return on their produce going forward. Congress question this, calls it inflationary in its usual obtuse, churlish and sour grapes manner. It cannot see the irony of its surface concern for the poor when it won’t restructure government processes to grant dignity and prosperity to the rural population, instead of a humiliating dole. Nor has it managed to garner more than a 3 per cent agricultural growth anywhere in the country, to Gujarat’s year on year 10 per cent, that too for the last decade and more.

Typically, though it has failed on every front itself, without so much as an apology or any kind of remorse,  it feels free to air its resentment for the confidence shown by Indian business in Narendra Modi. Congress seethes at the fact that business and industry around the country, is looking forward to Modi becoming prime minister of India very soon.

Modi clearly inspires extraordinary confidence in the minds of ordinary people longing for progress and prosperity in the shape of jobs and mobility, as well as the high and mighty searching for better profits. So much so, that the strength of the Modi Wave is bewildering to his political opponents.

They find their seasoned politicking, their rural-urban divides, the constant half truths, outright lies and vicious name-calling, are bouncing off NaMo, and falling on deaf ears elsewhere. Instead they find themselves being laughed at, contemptuously disregarded, and counter-questioned, all by a mocking electorate fed up of non-performance. The public wants to know how is it that nothing has been done to benefit them over the last 10 years. It is as if Modi, with all his exhortations, has opened the eyes of the public, and now they are not willing to be fooled for another moment, let alone another day.

In Uttar Pradesh, an estimated 23 per cent of Muslims, despite ugly efforts at scare-mongering by the Congress, are reportedly in the process of voting for Modi and the BJP this time.  Minority confidence, after all the toxic and one-sided noise on Godhra, is Modi’s litmus test. His even-handed secular message of ‘One India, One people’, and refusal to indulge in Congress style vote-bank politics, is getting through, as intended. It has, after all, been working very well in Gujarat for over a decade.

Congress, on the other hand, is in the process of losing its already split and dwindling vote-bank of much exploited and betrayed Muslims. This, on top of the loss of the Dalits and Other Backward Castes (OBCs) in earlier elections to the now powerful regional parties.  

While BJP is growing more sure-footed by the day, the ruling government is in disarray, thoroughly demoralised to the extent that its stalwarts are scared to stand for elections, and in retreat. The Congress’ so called Brahma-astra Sonia Gandhi, after the insipid and uninspiring Rahul failed to enthuse, far from turning the tide, looks stricken and ill, seemingly unable to carry the burden of sure defeat any longer.

(936 words)

April 20^th, 2014

Gautam Mukherjee

The Modi Wave Gains Momentum

The Modi Wave Gains Momentum

Style is as important as substance in politics, and perception is everything. Narendra Modi, always carefully dressed, calm and controlled, has demonstrated that he understands this truth with the respect it deserves, unlike most, if not all, of the political field passing over our TV screens for these months, in the studios, and on the campaign trail.

Narendra Modi does not visibly perspire, in his coloured galaband kurtas buttoned up to the top, and pastel coloured waistcoats with the Lotus party symbol prominent on his chest. His hair is always combed and beard trimmed. Sometimes he wears colourful headgear when the mood takes him. He drinks little water during speeches, that often last over half an hour, delivered at a  comfortable pace, modulating his voice to drive his points home.

Modi strictly does not rabble rouse, and yet gets a consistent response, a sure sign of a connect with his capacity audiences. He changes his pitch to suit the venue and location with great dexterity, peppering the big picture vision with the relevance of local issues. He clearly does his homework on the stump, despite multiple appearances in different parts of the country on any given day. He looks at his audience and straight into the cameras, does not need set speeches, and yet demonstrates great fluency and grasp, both of his material and message.

The effect of all this is that the ongoing 2014 general elections are pulling in the voters in unprecedented numbers. In the 5^th phase just completed, 121 parliamentary constituencies across 12 states went to the polls on Thursday 17^th April. Almost all the concerned states had higher voting percentages than in the general election of 2009. Of course, the voter lists too are much longer, with lakhs of first time and young voters added, but there is also a palpable excitement in the air. The electorate senses it is about to bring about a profound change in the destiny and direction of this nation. Modi is clearly that man of destiny, come to change our collective fortunes. And as he likes to joke, he is no Babbar Sher, to be feared, either.

High voter turnouts and polling to date also indicates that the people are not getting tired of the elongated schedule, drawn out over 6 weeks and nine phases. This, even at this 5^th encounter, more than half way through. Incidents involving problems with the EVMs and disruptions were recorded in a few instances this time too, but all have been noted by the EC and will lead to repolling where necessary.

The BJP is on most approving lips even in casual conversation. Most analysts too, view the markedly higher levels of voting as a noticeable manifestation of the Modi Wave on the ground. And not just in the media, as alleged by an envious and deeply worried Congress. Voting, in this instance, is tantamount to believing, and the Congress has not managed to say anything new  in a long time. They have just run a rear- guard and retreating action of heaping calumny on Narendra Modi  and hoping for the best.

The EC’s own extensive campaign to encourage people to exercise their franchise supported by several other public service advertisements, endorsements by celebrities and stars,  ‘the power of 49’ campaign to bring out even more women voters, have all had their effect too.

India is today a highly televised and increasingly online country, politicians can adapt or perish on this anvil. The oldtime radio jingles, spots and hoardings are also omnipresent. Are we then, perhaps more politically aware now?

But Modi’s  commanding TV presence, impeccably turned out, soaring oratory,  sonorously compelling voice, sense of humour, easy and spontaneous delivery, ability to connect with his audience, are all new phenomena in Indian electioneering. Nobody has made so much effort to get his point across to the electorate ever before and it is working.

The sound and video feed quality in our satellite channels live coverage has also improved dramatically, even from the Vajpayee days, also a tremendously engaging orator, just 10 years ago. Further back, in the abysmal Doordarshan terrestrial TV times, Indira Gandhi, for all her innate sophistication, used to rant on the stump; and Sonia Gandhi makes every asthmatic attempt to copy her.

Rahul Gandhi, like mom, rants too, just this side of hysteria, slovenly and unshaven a good deal of the time, looking harried and cornered, but always sadly low on content. Rahul, indeed sounds childish, his sister, come on the scene lately, looks raddled and sounds petulant, as if the effrontery of the Indian public is unforgiveable for not falling at the Congress first family’s feet. Sonia, feeling the strain, looks more and more like she is about to collapse. The age of television has  become somewhat all seeing.

The Congress spokespersons, with less to lose, still sound perpetually angry and frustrated, visibly rattled, resorting to insulting language, annoyed that the public prefers the BJP over them this time. Modi, who has climbed up a slippery political slope inch by inch in the face of enormous difficulties, has gained in stature tremendously as a consequence. He looks like he is in complete possession of himself, and yes, presidential in bearing and vision. There is no question of who is making the highest impact on the voter, who is drawing ever more and more supporters to his side.  

Kejriwal, the flash in the pan of recent times, looks unhealthy, greasy, dirty; he, whines and complains endlessly, but, as his campaign crashes, looks more and more depressed and beaten. Nothing it seems can be hidden anymore.  

Modi is the best speaker in the BJP too by a long chalk, followed by Rajnath Singh who speaks beautiful cultured Hindi, and carries himself with great dignity. And then  there is Arun Jaitley, the articulate legal beagle and ideologue of the top trio, with the best delivery in English of all in the BJP.

TV presence then, in addition to his sell-out, full-house rallies, his whole measured style, in televised campaign appearance after appearance, has left all the rest of the field far behind. The NaMo led BJP looks sure of winning a comfortable majority, even two thirds, in an epochal election. The nation waits for May 16^th and the counting. 

(1,046 words)

April 18^th, 2014

Gautam Mukherjee