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Monday, June 23, 2008

How to Steal a Trillion!




How to Steal a Trillion

There’s a new Global Commodity Game that puts mere high-risk jewel thievery, as in the hit Peter O’ Toole and Audrey Hepburn starrer: “How to steal a Million” (1966); firmly in the shade. It is called “Trading in Oil Futures and Options”, and everyone with money to spare, including those oil–rich Sovereign Funds from UAE, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, seem to be playing it.

Our Finance Minister P Chidambaram named quite a few other names in Jeddah. He said: "Surely, demand and supply dynamics cannot explain what has happened over the last 12 months. How is it that oil prices were USD 70 a barrel in August 2007 and how is it that they have doubled when there has been no dramatic change in demand?" He cited ample evidence that large financial institutions, pension funds and hedge funds have chanellised billions of dollars into commodity investments and derivatives. "It is common knowledge that these financial transactions are unregulated and highly opaque. The demand for oil generated by these funds is purely speculative," he said, and urged producers and consumers to wrest control of oil trading from the hands of speculators.

Ah, but the profits it yields, this rank speculation, what of that? And all you need to access these profits is nerve, a head for numbers, a large amount of ready-cash, and a gambler/robber baron’s instinct to keep playing it for double or quits.

The best part is that it takes less money in Commodity Futures Trading, including Oil, to put down a deposit, called “margin money” in the trade. In Equity Futures, or shares, by way of contrast, one needs to pay 15 or 20 per cent as margin in order to buy a “Futures Contract”. But in Commodities, including Oil, all it takes is five per cent. This is because, traditionally, there has been low volatility in commodities. But significantly, this margin requirement has not been raised, even though, crude futures fluctuate at least USD five per barrel daily of late, excelling itself by climbing USD 11 on a single day recently. It helps to stay unregulated, and oil-profits-tax-free, when the US President and Vice President are both ex-oil-men and the Treasury Secretary is an ex-head of Goldman Sachs!

But, keeping this nugget aside as an incurable fact, if you had a million dollars to invest, you could, notionally speaking, buy oil futures worth USD 20 million. Of course, you’d need to have the 20 million stashed away to cover your bet, or the part of it gone bad, if the chips don’t fall your way on “settlement” day. So, if you really had that million, you’d probably put down about USD 50,000/- worth, to take a contract worth USD 1 million. That way, you’d be well placed to cough up the million, if, God forbid, the gamble goes against you. Because, if you can’t cover your bets, life can suddenly become very dangerous!

At NYMEX, (New York Mercantile Exchange), the Oil Commodities Futures Mecca, this is how it works. You need to buy a minimum Futures Contract for a 1,000 U.S. Barrels (42,000 gallons), or about USD 139,000 worth at, say, USD 139 a barrel. But, on the other hand, you’d only have to fork out USD 6,950/- up-front, before they hand you an “Option” for: “One NYMEX Division light, sweet crude oil futures contract”.

An Indian oil speculator has it 10 times better. He can get in on the action by purchasing a minimum lot of only 100 barrels of crude oil, through a Broker like Religare; which consolidates 10 like-minded punters to buy one contract on NYMEX. To purchase a Futures Option like this, valued at Rupees six lakhs at the self-same USD 139 per barrel, you’d need to pony-up a mere Rs. 30,000/- up front!

Next, you’d learn that the Crude Oil Futures Market is traded for 30 consecutive months before going long for 36, 48, 60, 72 or even 84 months ahead. So, not only can you bet on oil prices going forward seven years ahead, but also for each one of those 30 consecutive months, using, if you like, just a single contract! Do you begin to see how you can keep oil prices high, especially if you can work in concert with a number of like-minded people?

The Futures and Options trade is recorded on a daily basis, with a minimum fluctuation counted as 1 cent a barrel a day, and a maximum cap on USD 3 a barrel a day. If the market closes at USD 3 up, or down, then the cap is raised to USD 6 a barrel and if there is a USD 7.50 per barrel move on any given day, trade is halted for an hour, before a USD 7.50 cap is placed on further fluctuation either up or down depending on the trend for that day. Trading in Options, the preferred vehicle of “paper” speculators, for what would they do with a “delivery” of crude, is stopped three business days before the expiry of the underlying futures contract.
Mr. Chidambaram, coming, as he does from a country where he can control the prices of steel and cement at the Government’s pleasure, suggested a lower and upper price band at Jeddah. It’s too bad that most OPEC members would have smirked up their burnooses at the suggestion if they weren’t too polite to react...

(900 words)
Gautam Mukherjee
23rd June 2008

Also published in print in The Pioneer on 24th June 2008, OP-ED Page, and online at http://www.dailypioneer.com/ as "How to steal a trillion".

Monday, June 16, 2008

Coming of Age

Coming of Age

And then I think of old George Pollexfen,
In muscular youth well known to Mayo men
For horsemanship at meets or at racecourses,
That could have shown how pure-bred horses
And solid men, for all their passion, live
But as the outrageous stars incline
By opposition, square and trine;
Having grown sluggish and contemplative.

William Butler Yeats : From “In Memory of Major Robert Gregory”


In the avowedly Socialist days of the later Indira Gandhi years, there were two celebrated hostile takeover bids involving Escorts Limited and Delhi Cloth Mills (DCM). Both prominent Delhi-based companies were being run by promoter-directors on the back of very slim residual promoter shareholdings. The tacit understanding with the financial institutions, mostly government owned, that held the bulk of the shares, was that they would be passive, except in matters of the public interest.

Certainly, they were never to threaten the promoter-director “ownership” to effect unwanted changes based on notions of synergy, efficiency, better financial ability, technological advantages and so forth, as these notions were Capitalist, devil-take-the hindmost ones, not likely to promote social equality. The policy framework was reasonably inflexible in its interpretation of the rules that governed the “mixed economy”, put in place by India's chief architect Pandit Nehru, himself.

Enter stage right: Swaraj Paul, now a Lord of the British realm, and then a confidante of all powerful prime minister Indira Gandhi. Paul decided to challenge this cosy assumption by mounting a takeover bid on both the companies. Both were ultimately thwarted by their alarmed promoters, with the help of the self-same Indian government when it was pointed out that allowing Mr. Paul to succeed might set a “bad precedent”. It was, in hindsight, an idea before its time.

Later, in prime minister Narasimha Rao’s term, akin, in India’s economic history, to Sleeping Beauty being awakened by the handsome prince from years of a deep sleep; a new development took place. This was in the first flush of liberalisation, after the restrictive provisions of the Monopolies and Restrictive Trade Practices Act (MRTP), of 1969, were removed at last, in 1991. The 33 per cent foreign shareholder of ITC, British-American Tobacco (BAT), made a spirited attempt to wrest board-room control, as a creeping acquisition manoeuvre was not enough to assure it a majority stake. But this too failed, with a little help from Delhi.

Except, this time, the reasons were far less ideological. The Indian management, backed by the majority shareholders, composed, once again, largely, of the financial institutions and the general public, did not agree with the BAT vision. BAT ostensibly didn’t like ITC’s diversification ideas, and wanted it to stick to tobacco and financial services. The Indian side of the company resisted stoutly. Still, BAT could hardly be blamed for using the issue to try and get back their dominance. It was 1994, and time to take back the control it had been forced to cede in the seventies, along with a large number of big-name foreign companies.

They had all fallen victim to the mighty bludgeon of the MRTP Act aided by the cosh of the Foreign Exchange Regulation Act (FERA), also enacted in the “hard currency” starved sixties. These laws nevertheless came in very handy for some Stalinist intimidation of big business, whenever Delhi felt inclined to do so. And all the government control of the time had a good side too--kicking out IBM with the dilute-or-leave dictation, and their choosing to do the latter, gave wings to a new born HCL, and led to the nascent home-grown software revolution, with Infosys and Wipro as its best known “poster boys”.

But while ITC remains an Indian majority company to this day, happily pursuing its many non-tobacco interests; many others, such as fast-moving-consumer-goods ( FMCG) major Unilever and advertising No.1 JWT, were able to buy back their shares, post liberalisation, with their Indian counterparts only too happy to receive a God-sent windfall profit in exchange.

Later still, the business of mergers and acquisitions (M&A), share buy-backs, raising of promoter stakes, and flotation of new 100 per cent subsidiaries; all became a reasonably welcome part of the corporate lexicon. In fact, the farther we get away from Socialism, with changes in the Companies Act too, enacted in 2003, the less alarming it looks.

Once it began in the nineties, the process snowballed: Standard Chartered bought out and merged ANZGrindlays with itself; in succession to ANZ buying out Grindlays Bank. In the Vajpayee years, Jet Airways bought over Sahara Airlines in a great show of headlines and grins, garlanding and hugging, only for something to go sour for a while with the legal fine print, before being resolved, like a Hindi movie, in the end.

Recently, in the current Sonia Gandhi/Manmohan Singh dispensation, Kingfisher Airlines merged Air Deccan into itself. And this process was more or less smooth, expect for a few grimaces and howls of pain emanating from Air Deccan’s promoter Capt. Gopinath, no doubt struggling to digest his own good sense.

Around the same time, the Arun Sarin led Vodafone of UK, with particular frisson in India because Sarin is indeed a proud son of Punjab, used quite a few of its dollars and pounds to buy-out telecommunications notable Hutch-Essar. There was little demurring from the Indian government—Hutch, and its dog, was foreign anyway; and the Ruia brothers of Essar seemed willing enough, at the right price. The "right price" leveraging may however be the reason for Sarin alleging some desultory interference from North Block. But then, what is high finance without a modicum of high drama?

Essentially, our policy makers have demonstrated nervousness in the face of foreign takeovers. It is the post-colonial nightmare after all. Liberalisation takes some getting used to.

But now, in 2008, we seem to have come of age. We like it enormously when our companies go forth and conquer. We even claim victories for any corporate achievements by the global Indian diaspora, most notably Laxmi Mittal’s wholly Europe-based merger of Mittal Steel with Arcelor. Domestic greats, notably in the TATA Group, have been doing us proud by snapping up quite a few iconic names including Corus Steel of the UK and Jaguar/Land Rover. We don’t like it at all when an Orient Express Group calls TATA names and resists her overtures.

At the moment, we are cheering Bharti and Walmart. We are watching with approval as Reliance Communications (RCOM), talks to merge with MTN of South Africa, interference with first-right-of-refusal litigation from Reliance Industries (RIL), notwithstanding. And we’re glad that Bharti didn’t agree to become an MTN subsidiary after all, because, the urge to regress into notions of economic patriotism is still strong.

So it takes courage and vigour to move India’s corporate history forward one large and irrevocable step. And this has now come in the form of the Singh brothers of Ranbaxy declaring they have sold their entire 38.4 per cent controlling stake to Daiichi Sankyo of Japan. Malvinder and Shivinder Singh have willingly turned Ranbaxy into a subsidiary of the Japanese pharmaceutical company! It is an audacious move, laudable for its stark unsentimentality and modernity.

The Singh brothers will realize Rs.10, 000 crores or USD 2.4 billion for the sale, and benchmark the value of the company, that their family built over more than half a century, at around USD 8.5 billion. The promoters selling off their shareholding has allegedly prompted international drug major Pfizer to go after the remaining financial institutional and public holdings. This will give Daiichi a run for its money. They will have to try harder to effect control, because Daiichi wants 51 per cent via an open offer to the public shareholders and preferential shares promised by the Singh brothers. The biggest pharmaceutical company in India is indeed a worthy prize, and these, in rapid succession, are exciting developments; of the kind that could turn India into a global M&A destination.

The young Singh brothers can put their handsome sale proceeds to good use in their Fortis Healthcare and Religare Financial Services ventures, of course; or start something new. Ranbaxy, the Daiichi subsidiary, will also be the stronger, more competitive and better-funded for its change of ownership.

Perhaps it is time to realise that if the British and the Americans and the Europeans can countenance the sale of their prominent assets to the best bidder, so can we.

This action, on the part of the Singh brothers, is an admirable, non-atavistic move; and has much to teach many other Indian companies struggling with their second-rate profiles and antiquated assets floundering in a rapidly globalising world. Taken to its logical conclusions, this trend could add considerable value to embedded assets, efficiency, competitiveness and world-class standards to India’s corporate scenario; shifting companies and assets to stronger hands, infusing moribund enterprise with new life; and open the floodgates to unprecedented all-around growth.

Our public sector, sluggish and underexploited, currently being prevented from even domestic privatisation by a recalcitrant Left, could benefit enormously too. Not only would this enrich the government with monies that can be used to strengthen infrastructure, health and education, all crying needs of the nation; but it could also go to areas such as defence production, where privatisation and international input could lead to quantitative and qualitative leaps!

It is clear from the ways of the global marketplace that India is now an unshakeable part of, that sometimes the only way forward involves more finances and expertise than one has access to in-house, or indeed in-country. It is seen, again and again, that the “inorganic” growth route of acquisition and merger have actually prevented many proud assets from going under. Far too often, it is the very weight of once-upon-a-time pre-eminence, or relevance, contrasted with a terminal decline brought on by changed times that needs to be addressed. The top 10 Indian corporations of today are hardly those of twenty years ago, and several of them have become multinationals in their own right.

The ability to turn pressure and competitive disadvantage into a triumph, by a boldness of thought is a new Indian option, thanks to the way shown to us by the Singh brothers. Chairman Mao’s “Let a hundred flowers bloom” exhortation comes to mind. His ghost may be bemused to see it put to such capitalist purpose, but, then again, his modern-day Chinese successors would not. After all, they too have come of age and the future is calling.

(1,738 words)

Gautam Mukherjee
Monday, 16th June 2008

Also Published in print in its 1,050 words version in The Pioneer on June 19th,2008 and online at www.dailypioneer.com as "India comes of age".

Thursday, June 12, 2008

How Eau de Cologne Overwhelms Perfume

BOOK REVIEW


COLD STEEL
Lakshmi Mittal And The Multi-Billion-Dollar Battle For A Global Empire

By Tim Bouquet & Byron Ousey
Hardback 340 pages. Published by Little Brown. Rs. 650/-


How Eau de Cologne Overwhelms Perfume

The 4th richest man in the world, circa 2008, with $45 billion to his name, has a clear cut understanding of the forest and the trees, as well he might! Here’s some key Laxmi Mittal speak: “It is the shareholders who own a company. Management are merely stewards.”

It is faith in this principle, and the application of a trailer-truckload of money, that enables Laxmi Mittal to do battle with a thicket of governments, bankers, legal teams, White Knights, company boards and partisan opinion leaders; and win. The story of this epic Battle for Arcelor, in 2006, that costs Mittal $188 million-- about a million dollars a day, in fees alone, funding a dragoon of bankers, lawyers, lobbyists and communicators of his own; is the subject of this fascinating and thrills-a-minute-book.

That is, if one’s idea of excitement is true-life corporate merger and acquisition (M&A). It is, let’s face it, the only conquest-for-real game left in town. Today, if one wants a real swashbuckling sword fight, the only place to go is the movies, to watch Johnny Depp in the theme-parkish The Pirates of the Caribbean series.

The authors of Cold Steel however, have definitely managed to capture the spirit of the chase. It is written as a tightly edited page-turner, bristling with thrust and parry, by a duo of British journalist Tim Bouquet, something of a Mittal family insider, and Financial PR Professional Byron Ousey.

Target company Arcelor’s CEO, Guy Dolle, provides most of the colour in this story. He smirks that you need to take a bus to go to the bathroom at Mittal’s Kensington Palace Gardens house. He resists all friendly attempts to merge the biggest, in steel jargon “long” products company, Mittal Steel, with the most profitable “flats” company aka Arcelor, while simultaneously spouting the need for “consolidation” in the Steel Business at every Steel Industry seminar he attends. The thing is, Dolle wants to consolidate other bits and pieces of the steel industry around the world into the venerable Arcelor, and retire as Chairman of the Board of the biggest steel company in the world. He does not enjoy a predatory Mittal putting a spoke in his wheel--not when he’s already negotiated his succession plan.

So Guy Dolle plays the tragi-comic protagonist instead. With all the hauteur of an elderly French Engineer wedded to concepts of “economic patriotism” and other such “Old Europe” nuggets; he decides to join the fight. He names names and casts slurs and dourly tugs on his trade union style moustache. He disparagingly likens Mittal Steel to “Eau de Cologne” and Arcelor to “Perfume” and stirs an additional hornets’ nest of Eau manufacturers looking out for Dolle. He casts aspersions on Mittal Steel’s corporate governance standards, implying it is a pere et fils operation. He calls it a “company of Indians”. He compares Mittal Steel’s publicly traded share scrips, running at prices comparable to Arcelor’s, to Monopoly-style “funny money”.

But ironically, as the pressure mounts, Dolle’s search for a White Knight settles on SeverStal of Russia, owned by maverick steel-man Alexey Mordashov, an acolyte of President Putin. Dolle nearly pulls it off but the dam finally breaks in Laxmi Mittal’s favour. Of course, the vastly increased bid of Euro 40.40 per Arcelor share; upped from his opening gambit of only Euro 28.21 has something to do with it. It leaves SeverStal scrambling to find more money while the shareholders reject the Russian suitor in Mittal’s favour. Maybe Laxmi Mittal’s other principle, which good breeding and Marwari discretion prevents him from airing publicly, is: It’s all about the money honey!

The Mittal family acquires a controlling stake of 43% in the combined entity of ArcelorMittal and creates corporate history; and not just as an Indian passport holder. Laxmi Mittal also takes a giant step forward towards his “Andrew Carnegie” style ambition of producing 200 million tonnes of steel a year. His prize, ArcelorMittal, is not only the world’s largest steel company but produces over 120 million tonnes of steel a year, about 10% of the world total.

Since this great milestone achievement, we have, of course, seen Tata Steel acquire Corus of the UK, with similar attendant drama, catapulting itself to a ranking of Number 5 in the world. But this is in the new liberalised India, with bulging foreign exchange reserves, where domestic corporations are being encouraged to go global.

But, as Laxmi Mittal says, had he not moved out abroad in 1977, to set up his first mini-steel mill in Surabaya, Malaysia, to produce a modest 26,000 tonnes of steel, much of what followed may not have been possible. Also, as the Arcelor shareholders and management eventually acknowledge, Mittal Steel was, in fact, a European company. Mittal Steel was listed and incorporated under European laws and in conformity with European standards of corporate governance. And, while Commerce Minister Kamal Nath and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh did weigh in on behalf of Mittal; the fact is, even without the backing of a resurgent India, the prospects, the possibilities and the expectations for the global Indian are indeed looking very good.

(850 words)

Gautam Mukherjee
Thursday 12th June 2008

Appeared on the BOOKS page of The Sunday Pioneer and online www.dailypioneer.com on 29th June 2008, as "The man of steel".

Monday, June 9, 2008

A Post Modern Look At Oil Prices

A Post-Modern Look At Oil Prices


What demand-supply imbalance can induce a surge of $10.75 or 8.4% in oil prices in just one trading session on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX)? Answer: none; unless the 85 million barrels per day global supply of crude oil, matched, almost exactly, by world demand, is inexplicably hit by a demand upsurge or supply failure that nobody has reported.

However, that is exactly what happened on Friday, June 6th 2008, accompanied, handily, by a Goldman Sachs pronouncement from Jeffrey Currie, Head of Global Commodities Research at New York. This near perpendicular up-tick represents the largest ever gain in US dollar terms and the biggest percentage increase in crude prices since June 1996. Currie said he expects oil prices to touch $150 by July 4th, America’s Independence Day.

This price surge came on top of 4.5% on June 5th, the day before; ostensibly because the European Central Bank’s Claude Trichet said that the bank might raise interest rates next month. This led to a sharp fall in the value of the US dollar against the Euro, and oil prices are counted in US dollars.

But just before, at the beginning of June, the US Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Ben Bernanke, indicated he wouldn’t lower US interest rates further, currently at 2%, even if he made no remarks about increasing them. Oil prices actually fell on this news, taken as an indicator of returning calm in the US economy. Equity prices on NASDAQ, Dow Jones and Standard & Poor (SP) 500 rose; accompanied by rallies in the European, Asian and Emerging markets. But the nabobs of Wall Street expected more bad news. And sure enough, on June 6th, it was announced that the US unemployment rate was at the highest in two decades.

The upshot of all this -- in two days oil prices rose fifteen dollars, even hitting a record high of $ 139.12, intra-session, on June 6th. Crude has become a safe harbour of high demand, a place to recoup losses, an inflation hedge. It seems surreal that on the 4th of June, oil prices were hovering at $123, down from an earlier all-time high of $135 a barrel. High oil prices may cause consternation, alarm and pain on high streets around the world; but in 2008, they look very reassuring to financial men gouged by massive losses in other fields.

The current price movements are incomparably sharp, several dollars a day, pursued by hundreds of billions of dollars, translating to an estimated 2.5 trillion dollars in “oil futures” alone, according to The Economist. This can be contrasted with earlier oil and other commodity “futures” and “spot” trading movements, being counted in seemingly quaint cents, that too over a week of trading sessions!
And in those times, only a year or two ago, the difference between “paper barrels” of the “futures” trades was much greater than the “real” prices on the “spot” markets. But, today, the prices are just cents apart on the futures and spot markets. Anticipation of future higher prices, quite often deliberately “talked-up” are upping real prices too. You might soon see spot prices outstripping futures quotes, at least in between the 15 minutes it takes to update rates on the Bloomberg site!

So, if this ruinous price inflation isn’t caused by a demand upsurge or a supply breakdown, what exactly is going on?

The answers lie in the ability of the global financial markets, led by those in New York, to lead the “real” demand-supply based ones by the nose and by several lengths. It is a virtual and post-modern phenomenon that has dwarfed the importance of producers of actual goods and services for all time. It is now possible to outstrip any reporting mechanism in real time and make the anticipation a reality before it is registered to be so. The power positions of the trade have shifted irrevocably from producers to traders.

All those who have lost a lot of money on Wall Street and its counterparts in the G-8 countries in recent times, have found, in commodities, and particularly oil, a place to not only recoup their losses but earn bumper profits to replenish depleted coffers. And to deflect attention, a curious element of public relations disinformation has been pressed into service. It speaks of India and China as the cause, of, amongst other things: global warming, food shortages and last, but not least, high oil prices. But the reality is that future projected demand growing at 15% p.a. in China and 6% p.a. in India do not constitute a present day fuel demand crisis. Nor does the doubling of the US strategic oil reserves from 350 million barrels to 700 million barrels. The current oil price rise merely marks a permanent shift from the real economy to the financial one.
Today, OPEC as the world’s largest oil producing block, accounting for 40% of the world’s oil, barely calls the shots even to the extent of its statistical strength. When Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al Naimi said that the surge in oil prices is “unjustified” and when the official Saudi Press Agency added that it is being driven by “non-fundamental factors”, they was not being hypocritical.

The power to decide oil prices today is on Wall Street, Broad Street and North End Avenue, making hay with an inevitable nod and a wink from Washington. In June 2006, a Senate Committee of the US probed the role of market speculation in oil and gas prices. The report pointed out that US energy futures were traded on regulated exchanges within the US and subjected to extensive oversight by the Commodities Future Trading Commission (CFTC), a government agency. But the number of trades on the unregulated over-the-counter (OTC) electronic markets is anybody’s guess, because no records are overseen.

Trading in energy and other commodities by large firms on OTC electronic exchanges is exempt from CFTC oversight by virtue of a provision inserted at the behest of the somewhat notorious and now defunct Enron Corporation into the Commodity Futures Modernisation Act of 2000.

So when will it stop? When the bad economic news stream in the US stops, and it is profitable for the money men to return to equities. Then, as suddenly as it began, it will be time up for commodities.

(1,050 words)

By Gautam Mukherjee
Monday, 9th June 2008


Published in print and online in The Pioneer www.dailypioneer.com on the EDIT page as "Greed fuelling price hike" on Saturday 14th June, 2008