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Sunday, July 26, 2009

INS Arihant:India's Very Own Nautilus


INS Arihant: India’s Very Own Nautilus

With the launch of India’s first nuclear submarine on Sunday 26th July, indigenously built at the Vishakapatnam Ship Yard by the Navy and the DRDO, albeit with Russian help, we have decisively crossed a very important strategic threshold.

The Indian Navy has proudly named it INS Arihant, meaning “enemy” (Ari) and “slayer” (Hant). We can now potentially launch nuclear missiles from under the sea with little chance of detection.

By the induction of this submarine India becomes the 6th country to manufacture and possess such nuclear powered submarines and joins a handful of Western countries, namely the US, Russia, France, the UK, and China in this regard.

This happy day coincides with the 10th anniversary of the hard-fought Indian victory at Kargil, a war thrust upon India, and not for the first time either, due to Pakistani adventurism.

Besides, in the context of an intractable Kashmir problem, and the constant cross-border subversion and terrorism we are enduring, an ever aggressive Pakistan does not hesitate to repeatedly threaten a nuclear “first strike” if we were to launch a full-fledged conventional war against it, no matter what the provocation offered by it.

India, on its part, has been steadfast in its “no first strike” policy. And therefore, it becomes all the more important to have a nuclear second-strike capacity. And nuclear submarines make it possible to launch strikes from hard to detect and moving launch-pads hidden deep under the sea or from locations devastatingly close to the enemy’s coastline.

We will, given successful sea and weapons trials, soon have a nuclear delivery capacity equal and perhaps superior to that of China. Pakistan, as yet, has no nuclear submarines in its fleet though it will probably acquire some from good friend China before long.

But China itself only has ten, even with its nuclear submarine programme launched in 1971. This is modest when contrasted with America’s 74 deployed in the world’s oceans followed by the 50 odd that belong to Russia.

But, in matters concerning nuclear weaponisation, even the one Rs. 3,000 crore submarine in India’s possession, can, and probably will, act as sufficient deterrent against suffering a “first strike”.

We will, the experts estimate, need several more of these 6,000 ton Arihant Class submarines, comparable in speed and capabilities to the American nuclear “Ohio Class” submarines. Two more hulls have already been completed in Gujarat and will be sent to Vishakapatnam soon for the next stage of the operation towards our “10 nuclear submarines in ten years” programme.

Our strategic and defensive needs include the patrolling of our immediate neighbourhood: the Bay of Bengal, the Arabian Sea, The Palk Straits, and large portions of the Indian Ocean. And there is a increasing demand from America and its NATO Allies that India assume its regional defence responsibilities in a more tangible manner.

The Indian Navy and our political establishment seems to be on board with this thought, ever since the Vajpayee Government gave this nuclear submarine project a push, announcing that it will also indigenously build a variant of the Russian “Akula Class” ( Shark) nuclear attack submarine in the future.

Combined with India’s efforts to build its own aircraft carriers after being grievously over-charged in the yet to be refurbished and delivered “Admiral Gorshkov”; and given that we already have a respectable ballistic missile building programme; the declared policy of creating a nuclear “triad”, meaning a nuclear attack capability from land, sea and air, is now on its way to becoming autonomous of any other nation.

The INS Arihant, will now be put through two years of sea and weapons trials before being “operationalised”. But at a pinch, this submarine can launch 12 of our “Sagarika Class” ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads and a range of up to 700 km much sooner.

In addition, India has several diesel fuelled conventional submarines, 16 variations of the Russian “Kilo Class”, and another 4 which are variants of the German-made HDW-but these need to come up frequently for air, water, and to recharge their batteries, and are also very much slower.

The Arihant however can go on for months in the deep. It can make its own oxygen, and desalinate its own water. It only needs to surface for replenishment of its food supplies and for its crew to go on restorative visits ashore.

The great nineteenth century science fiction author Jules Verne coincidentally had an Indian protagonist, a mysterious visionary called Captain Nemo of the Nautilus, in his celebrated classic “Twenty Thousand Leagues Under The Sea”. In its most recent film version,“The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen,” Captain Nemo was played by our very own Nasiruddin Shah.

In Jules Verne’s captivating story written in 1869-70, Captain Nemo was a decided futurist with utopian ideas in counterpoint to the ills that were besetting the world he knew, nearly 150 years ago. And this may well turn out to be the larger purpose of nuclear submarines, beyond its military possibilities.

The Nautilus too was probably nuclear powered, capable of great speeds and staying in the deep for weeks on end. Nemo farmed the sea for its food and harvested other treasures of a more worldly nature from shipwrecks. And he reprovisioned and made repairs at a secluded and remote island base, completely hidden in those pre-satellite days.

But the romance of Jules Verne’s amazingly prescient story apart, it is a decidedly powerful trend today, to calibrate the relative importance of peoples and nations in terms of military capability and economic power.

The successful launch of the INS Arihant , coming, as it does, after various other recent achievements including the induction of the long-awaited Arjun Main Battle Tank is India’s recognition of this ground reality.

And in due course, this emerging military building programme will underpin India’s status as a leading nation emerging out of an ambivalent policy fog. This in turn is bound to serve this country well, making some aspirations such as permanent membership of the UN Security Council rather easier. It will also rationalise the costs associated with our mounting defence needs and hold our security needs in good stead. It will also keep us safe from would be regional domination from China, both in the seas and in the North East.

The nation owes its scientists, policy makers and military men a debt of gratitude.

(1,052 words)

26th July 2009
Gautam Mukherjee


Published as Leader Edit in The Pioneer entitled "India's Very Own Nautilus"
on Wednesday,July 29th, 2009. Also online at www.dailypioneer.com and archived there under Columnists.

Monday, July 13, 2009

Glory Be!




Glory Be!


"I don't care if it's a white cat or a black cat. It's a good cat so long as it catches mice."
Deng Xiaoping


Deng Xiaoping, China’s great reformist leader of the eighties and nineties, often referred to as “The Venerable Deng” by his countrymen, indicated, at the start of the Chinese move towards a strong market–export-led economy, that being “rich” was “glorious”.

This clear statement, made on his accession to supreme power in the eighties, took the confusion out of the pro-poor but often unproductive policies typical of Communist regimes everywhere, and the excesses of China’s own preceding “Cultural Revolution” that had led it to near bankruptcy.

Deng’s policy shift arrested the anarchism and set China on a growth path that has it one of the leading economies of the world today. In fact, the Chinese economy is widely expected to overtake that of the US soon. Estimates on the time frame for this to happen vary, but almost all analysts are agreed that this will come to pass by 2050.

Currently, in the worst global recession seen since the self-same eighties when Deng took the helm in China; it is supporting its economy, affected by a drastic fall in exports, with over $2 trillion in reserves. A further trillion dollars in Chinese reserves supports the US economy by being invested in US Treasury Bonds.

China, which needs a minimum GDP growth rate of 7-8 per cent in order to stave off massive unemployment and social unrest, is driving its GDP growth by massive government spending on domestic infrastructure. But, unlike India, it is doing the spending with its surplus and not through potentially troublesome deficit financing.

This happy Chinese circumstance is the result of years of strong export growth supported by a soft Chinese currency and favourable exchange rates, kept benign by careful Chinese government intervention to prevent its appreciation. This in turn set off a virtuous cycle. Predicated upon being one of the most competitive manufacturing nations of the world, there were strong trade balances in China’s favour. The riches gained have also allowed China to grow into a formidable military power over the years.

All this is the spectacular result of Deng’s pragmatic vision. Deng had the courage to dump the innate povertyism, revolutionary victimhood, and paranoid self-reliance that was endemic to Communist regimes all over the world. Indeed, Deng survived several purges over the Mao years with his skin intact only because of the tacit support of Chinese Communism’s other stalwart, Premier Zhou En Lai. Still Deng could give vent to his ideas only after the death of both Mao and Zhou and the sidelining of their designated successors. It was fortunate for China that Deng was able to act when he did, because in the rival Communist state of the USSR, glasnost and perestroika came too late in the day to save the Soviet Union.

Of course, there were sacrifices made for Deng’s vision of prosperity, certainly; near sweated labour, subsidised utilities and pricing to capture hard currency markets. And there were some unfavourable results too, such as the widening gap between the wealth and prosperity levels in the cities and the countryside. But, these issues too are being addressed now, even during a global downturn, using the trillions China has in reserve.

In this comparison between town and country, India is often praised for being more inclusive in its policies. But then, the Indian economy is less than a third of the size of China’s. And India does not have the resources to bridge the gap in any significant manner unless the rate of growth in GDP tends towards the double digits in percentage terms. Otherwise we are looking at the debt traps, downgraded financial ratings, and economic weakness that bedevils ambitious but less successful economies all over the developing world.

And in policy terms, India, with its socialist past enjoying a nostalgic revival, is once again not very sure about riches being glorious!

It is prevailing wisdom that India has weathered the storm of the global meltdown better than most partially because of the size of its domestic market, its relatively low dependence on exports, and its protection of institutions such as banking and insurance from too much foreign investment. And in defensive mode, all of this is true enough. But not losing as much as the next country is still not a formula for future growth.

India readily urges the West not to erect protectionist barriers in the aftermath of the global recession, but is reluctant to further open up its own markets. And ironically, more so now, when the current Government enjoys little opposition; than when it was struggling to work with the Left and in the face of a much stronger opposition over the previous five years.

But the fact is, our infrastructure development needs alone, of over $500 billion, cannot be financed by domestic deficits alone. And in order to attract the foreign investment needed, India will have to make concessions and issue guarantees, particularly with the threat of a weaker currency, a slower economy, probably higher petroleum prices, and inflation spiking upwards once more provoked by the high fiscal deficits.

How much better it might have been at this juncture, if like China, which only started its reforms a decade before we did in 1991, India had been bolder. We do have several things going for us, such as a greater transparency, a thriving democracy, a sophisticated if slow judicial system, several thousand publicly quoted companies with their shares traded every working day and a developed and free media.

There is little reason for us to move ahead always with the kind of caution that has become the hallmark of Indian policymaking. But it is perhaps necessary to first stop equating socialism with wealth redistribution as if it was a finite resource, and like Deng’s China, turn our attention to wealth creation that can be harnessed towards our laudable social objectives.

After all, it need not necessarily be an either/or dichotomy of choice. There is every chance we can alleviate poverty while growing richer at the same time going by China’s example. But first, we need to be able to look the prospect of wealth in the eye without embarrassment if inclusive growth is to work.


(1,050 words)

13th July 2009
Gautam Mukherjee


Published in The Pioneer as "An eye to China" on July 25th, 2009 and online at www.dailypioneer.com. Also archived online at www.dailypioneer under Columnists.

Monday, July 6, 2009

Yet Another Lacklustre Budget That Turns Sharp Left





Yet another lacklustre budget that turns sharp Left


If anyone in India was expecting a kick-start to the economy via the Union Budget presented in parliament by veteran leader and Union Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee on Monday, then he or she would be sorely disappointed.

The presentation was a tinkerer’s effort, defensive, lacking in accountability, navel-gazing in its self-absorption and band-aidism; and reeking of its self-serving politics of “inclusivism”.

No-one in his right mind does not want to help the poor or underprivileged in this country, but to attempt to do so at the expense and exclusion of the haves is extreme populism of the kind that was the hallmark of the Indira Gandhi socialist years. But it seems to be yesterday once more in 2009-10 with a slew of expenditure programmes that show no real source of income other than an ever growing programme of deficit financing.

Sure, the budget emphasises infrastructure development with an increase in allocation (23%) for the much delayed roads sector; and radically increases spending for farmers and the rural poor in particular, while not entirely forgetting the urban poor either.

But, in terms of the grand intent, the actual allocations, still constitute dribbles and drabbles in absolute terms, given the size of the constituency being addressed, unlikely to go very far to alleviate conditions even in these two or three thrust areas. Besides, the approach being taken is one of providing immediate relief for the distressed rather than creating a reusable resource, except for the rural roads programme and the thrust to the highways programme nationally.

But then, how can it, without simultaneously pump-priming and helping those sections of the economy, namely India Inc. that earn most of the money and accounted for most of the 9% growth we experienced during a part of the UPA I Government? But today India Inc. is suffering the effects of both low domestic demand and the global recession. But for this section, there is little concrete except sympathy and empathy and the tinkering with a few tax heads.

The Budget has not only under-whelmed the Stock Markets which fell 900 points in response, but also almost every constituent of modern, non-rural and poor India including industrialists, corporate employees, professionals of various hue, India watchers, and the important FII and FDI contingents.

The timid disinvestment target of just Rs. 1,100 crores is a case in point considering the size of the public sector that runs into over Rs. 100,000 crores.

But, it appears UPA II is concentrating on the voters, right from the start of their new term in office. And they have identified their core constituencies in the fields and huts of rural Bharat. It has calculated that the disappointment of India Inc. and the global investment community seeking growth in India is worth the candle, if in the bargain they gain the support of the all important and comparatively numerous aam aadmi.

Indeed, it appears that even as the Left has lost a good deal of voter support, the space vacated by it is being usurped at the first opportunity by the decidedly left-leaning new UPA Government.

But if these measures, such as they are, help revive the agricultural sector, fallen to a growth rate of 1.7% in 2008-09 from 4.7% the year before; it will prove to be salutary.

But are measures such as: targeting agriculture credit of 3.25 trillion rupees, arranging for the payment of additional interest subvention of 1 percent to farmers who pay short-term farm loans on schedule; the provision of an additional 10 billion rupees over the interim budget for irrigation; the extension of agriculture debt waiver by 6 months and recasting farm subsidies on fertilizers towards nutrient-based assessments and even direct subsidies to farmers, going to be enough?

Or are we plugging a leaking dyke by this outdated socialism when the situation is crying out for massive modernization and overhaul using bold new initiatives that are completely missing in this budget?

There is more for the small man in this budget: some 40 billion rupees to encourage lending to small firms, 1 billion rupees for banking services in unbanked areas, 391 billion rupees for rural jobs programme in 2009/10 , 144% more than in 2008/09.
The rural roads scheme allocations will go up by 59 pct in 2009/10. The Bharat Nirman infrastructure programme will receive an enhanced funding of 45%. And there is going to be a further 70 billion rupees for the rural electrification scheme. Another 20 billion rupees will go to rural housing under the National Housing Bank.

All this might make the intended recipients of the Union Budget’s focus, farmers, small businesses and the poor, somewhat happy; though the largesse intended for them is neither large nor game-changing in nature.

But what is difficult to understand is which component of the budget will act towards achieving the Government’s intentions to return the economy to the path of 9% growth once again in the shortest possible order.

It is hoped, no doubt, that the emphasis on infrastructure will stimulate the core sectors of the economy and result in this growth. It is possible that the export tax sops will stimulate this moribund exports sector but again will extending interest subvention to exporters in 7 sectors till March 2010 do the needful?

The banking sector has welcomed the removal of certain taxes in exchange to the enhancement of certain others but they too seem to be making the best of a bad job.
Even in the matter of removing subsidies on petroleum products, long in the air, there is no definitive commitment beyond saying it needs to be done and that there will be an expert committee set up to go into it.

Similar vague assurances have been given in the matter of increasing the production and availability of LPG. And not to forget the disaster affected, there is even an allocation of Rs. 5 billion to prevent further floods in Mumbai.

There are some tiny concessions to pensioners and individuals in terms of tax relief; too small to bear mention, keeping in mind the consumer price index and the prospects of a slow and painful recovery for India, predicated almost entirely on the revival of the global economy.

Just as inflation fell in 2008 at last when oil prices plummeted, so will we see revival when international revival raises all boats including our becalmed Indian ones too.

(1,061 words)

6th July 2009
Gautam Mukherjee

Thursday, July 2, 2009

The New War Tools Are Counterinsurgency & Infiltration




Painting--"Madonna" by DAWN MELLOR


The New War Tools Are Counterinsurgency & Infiltration

Union Home Minister P Chidambaram’s recent operationalisation of three regional NSG
(National Security Group) “Black Cat” Commando hubs at Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata in addition to its HQ at Manesar, has come not a minute too soon.

Mr. Chidambaram has indeed kept the Government’s promise by making this long overdue beginning for the Indian citizen’s protection within seven months of the terrorist atrocities committed in Mumbai on 26/11 last year.

It is most encouraging that India is waking up to the fact that the nature of Internal insurgency from the Maoists in Central and Eastern India and others in the North East, and foreign terrorism, need more than the attentions of an ill-equipped and under-manned state police. The police, after all, are trained to use minimum force in the administration of law and order on city streets and the rural “sadar” hinterland.

The Government of India is also coming around to the notion that the conventional armed forces including the CRPF and the BSF tend to use too much force in what are, after all, domestic situations. Perceived as “occupational forces”, they also find it difficult to win over “hearts and minds” or utilize the advantage of surprise.

Such conventional armed forces, however well trained and disciplined, are designed to engage a similarly configured foreign enemy. And full-fledged conventional war is being increasingly checkmated between nuclear states as in India, Pakistan and China in our immediate neighbourhood.

Conventional forces are not best suited to engage in guerrilla warfare with a wily and multi-faceted enemy adept at using men, women and children as recruits, decoys and shields. Nor are they the best response to human suicide bombers and low intensity warfare involving disruption, subversion, infiltration, recruitment, media-borne disinformation, propaganda, entrapment, blackmail, counterfeit currency, malevolent stock market operations, drug-running, honey-trapping, random killings and targeted assassinations--in short, the effects of Pakistan’s very effective policy of “war by a thousand cuts”, come at after losing three conventional encounters against India.

Even though our armed forces have been increasingly deployed in natural calamity situations and other law and order enforcement situations like riots, it is still not the best solution to tackle internal insurgency and foreign led and inspired terrorism.

It is commando units such as the NSG which saved the day at 26/11 and also achieved spectacular results against the LTTE as part of the IPKF. The newly formed Cobra unit deployed recently for the first time at Lalgarh against the Maoists was most effective. All we need are more numbers of such units, trained, equipped and deployed, sometimes on a pre-emptive basis.

India has learned much from Israel about counterinsurgency and infiltration ever since full diplomatic relations were established in 1992.This has ensured much better border surveillance and counterinsurgency measures in Kashmir, perhaps leading, inadvertently, to the Pakistanis spreading their terrorist wings to other parts of India, using the on-site knowledge and connections of the Islamic underworld of Indian origin based in Karachi, Kathmandu, Dhaka, Bangkok and Dubai.

India does rely on state-of-the-art Israeli hardware as well, famously involving the $1 billion Phalcon early warning reconnaissance aircraft and the Barak surface-to-air naval missiles, among other matters. The Defence cooperation with Israel currently stands second only to the historically embedded relationship with Russia.

And looking at the issue conversely, through the eyes of the enemy, we must agree that insurgency, infiltration and psychological warfare is the cornerstone of the spectacular success of Pakistan’s ISI, comparable with the exploits of the legendary Israeli agency Mossad.

But where Pakistan wins over Israel is in terms of its extremely successful international public relations gambit. Unlike the bully-boy image of Israel, Pakistan maintains a highly articulate and sympathetic image as a victim of terror, even as it is, in fact, the world’s epicentre of terrorism.

Pakistan boldly holds the Western world to ransom. It garners generous financial aid and military supplies from the US and has successfully projected itself as recourse of last resort in its geographical theatre.

It not only demonises India’s “human rights abuses” in Kashmir but runs circles around international sanctions and bans by nurturing a large number of home-grown terrorist outfits forever changing nomenclature. In addition it maintains seemingly freelance non-state actors that allow it the fig-leaf of plausible deniability.

To add insult to Indian injury, it blatantly harbours much wanted criminals from India, keeping them in considerable style. And in a masterful demonstration of how to manage chaos, Pakistan keeps its domestic situation in destabilised ferment and flux by stoking sectarian, that is, Sunni versus Shia violence, and religious tensions between Islamic progressives and fundamentalists, rent-collecting on such issues from the oil–rich Islamic world as well.

For the further bamboozling of the West, Pakistan uses its blow-hot-blow-cold relationship with the Pakistani and Afghan Taliban and its hosting of the Al Qaeda as adroit bargaining chips.

It flaunts its strategic relationship with China with the latter’s tacit support. This enables Pakistan to be muscular about its armed nuclear options and hint menacingly about the possibility of its nuclear weapons falling to the Taliban as well. They also murmur darkly about the implications of clandestine nuclear proliferation activities conducted by “disgruntled elements”.

Pakistan is so good at what it does that it clearly bears imitation. India may at last be learning a little from the Pakistani version of media diplomacy, demonstrated by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh firing his “stop the terrorism” salvo at President Zardari at Yekaterinburg in June 2009 in the full audio-visual glare of the international media.

We cannot, given Pakistani nuclear sabre-rattling, safely order a conventional set of air strikes against terrorist training centres in POK and elsewhere within Pakistan. But nothing prevents us from doing as they do. We too can develop the capacity to take the battle to the enemy by infiltrating Pakistan’s terrorist assets, or making them believe that we have, in order to degrade their capabilities on their own soil.

Effective long-term counterinsurgency and infiltration operations do call for patience. But first, we need to get the infrastructure in place. And we need to put some tooth and claw back into intelligence agencies such as RAW and the IB, even as moves to coordinate and integrate their efforts with those of our fighting arms go forward. And we need to use our new anti-terror laws.


(1,051 words)

2nd July 2009

Gautam Mukherjee


Truncated version published in The Pioneer OP-Ed Page on 14th July 2009 as "New means of proxy war" and online at www.dailypioneer.com. Also archived online under Columnists at www.dailypioneer.com