Fighting Guerrilla

Fighting Guerrilla

 While the Vietnam War was raging, with the Americans unable to subdue the Viet Cong; there was another, little known war being fought against Communist inspired and trained mountain tribesmen in the Gulf. But fortunately for the “free world” and its dependence on petroleum, this one was decisively won in the mist-shrouded mountains of Dhofar, bordering Socialist South Yemen.

 The winning force was professional and multinational, even as the wily enemy routinely inflicted heavy casualties on it. The Sandhurst trained Sultan Qaboos bin Said of Oman wisely asked for help. And so, there were Iranians from the Shah of Iran’s Armed Forces; the largest contingent of British forces involved overseas since the Korean War; and Omani soldiers drawn from tough men of Zanzibari and Baluchi extraction.

The key to victory however was in the discipline inculcated into the British officered Sultan of Oman’s Armed Forces, ably assisted by seconded officers and soldiers from the fabled British 22^nd SAS Regiment of commandos.

And this war, largely off the world’s radar, secured the Arabian Gulf from a determined takeover attempt by Communist forces from both China and the Soviet Union, working through “Adoo” tribal irregulars.

Following the recent hardening of the conflict between the Indian State and our indigenous Maoists, the considerable similarities with that little known war in Dhofar are remarkable. Except, God forbid, that one raged on for two decades!

The Dhofar War is in mention again thanks to the appearance of a new book by British SAS officer Ian Gardiner who was there. It’s called:In the service of the Sultan,   published in February 2010.His book is relevant because it raises some of the very same issues at stake now in India, particularly when viewed from the perspective of a Chinese Communist-backed insurgency.

An insurgency, only nominally to do with tribal neglect and underdevelopment, and rather more about a determined and well planned attempt to take over the Indian state from within. The Maoists are dead serious. And their war on the Union of India is designed to ruthlessly debilitate, injure, thwart, bleed, encircle, corner, and destabilise, a thriving, if far from perfect democracy.

Yet even as India stands bloodied, it remains complacent and does not call for external help from nations like Israel trained in counter insurgency and battling guerrillas. You’d think that we were being threatened by bow and arrow wielding primitives, and not trained commandos expert at jungle warfare. And thoroughly conversant with their territory to boot. They allegedly also have ex- Indian Army trainers and military experts from China, the erstwhile Tamil Tigers and so on.

Not only have the Maoists demonstrated their savage military prowess and the penetration of their intelligence gathering; they have also managed to give a good account of themselves and their supposedly lofty motives through sympathisers amongst the NGO community, and certain Left-leaning members of the intelligentsia!

The Government has underestimated this threat for far too long. The dilemma is about what level of force to use on an internal challenge. The Omanis however did not suffer from such semantic worries. They used helicopter gunships, fighters, the best and latest weaponry and training, intense patrolling, and a powerful hearts and minds campaign. Even then, it took two decades to finally win out.

 So it is interesting to consider, as we fiddle around with debates on the choice of weapons, what kind of South Asia might obtain if we lose to the Maoists. Instead of becoming a counterpoint to Chinese ascendancy, India would all but lose its sovereignty to become a kind of Vichy State under Chinese  over-lordship.  

  

The Dhofar War had to be prosecuted not only in the mountains bordering Yemen but also far away in order to cut supply routes coming across the Indian Ocean. And also to protect the arteries that connected Omani oil fields, pipelines and highways across the country. It forced the rapid modernisation of the Sultanate from an overlooked backwater into a modern State and valued strategic ally of the West; perched, as it is, at the mouth of the Gulf of Hormuz. Again there are lessons in this for us. The Maoists have already talked of taking the battle into the cities for example.

Coincidentally, I have lived in both Bastar and Muscat. I was a little boy in 1959 when we lived in Jagdalpur. My father was a Government Civil Engineer and had volunteered for the experimental Dandakaranya Project for the resettlement of East Bengali refugees.

I remember idyllic afternoons catching mud crabs on the banks of the river nearby. And other, Mowgli like trips to the deep forest replete with tented camps, jungle sounds, thunderous waterfalls and bare-bodied, bow and arrow toting tribals. But even in 1960, the steel smelting furnaces of Bhilai were being lit. The propaganda of neglect which is treated as nearly axiomatic in the debate on causes of Maoism may actually be much exaggerated.

We lived in Oman also, through its scorching developmental years even as it fought off the Communists using the most modern means at its command. India too needs to modernise its armed response to this insurgency, even as its economy develops rapidly. We need to invest all the men, resources, planning, soft skills and technical expertise necessary to eliminate the Maoist threat in the shortest possible time. Given that we are also confronted by hostile neighbours on more than one border, in addition to the depredations of Islamic terrorists and other insurrections in the North East; we cannot afford the luxury of a long war of attrition.

Guerrilla warfare, may indeed mean “little war” in Spanish; but with its reliance on trickery, sabotage, ambushes and raids, its efficacy can be borne out by its disconcertingly successful track record. Witness: The People's Liberation Army in Mao's China; Fidel Castro's rebellion in Cuba, the Viet Cong in North Vietnam; the Irish Republican Army, the Kosovo War and so on.

In fact, guerrilla war, with its flexibility, relatively low cost, its undeclared ability to harass and weaken, could well become the preferred mode of future conflict between nations.

There are indeed many advantages to its conduct, both stated and unstated. But it is the great Henry Kissinger, who put the moot point as follows: " The conventional army loses if it does not win. The guerrila wins if he does not lose".

(1,052 words)

13^th April 2010

Gautam Mukherjee
Published as Leader Edit on Edit Page of The Pioneer on April 30th,2010 and also online at www.dailypioneer.com as "We're fighting a guerilla war". The piece is also archived online at www.dailypioneer.com under Columnists.

Nothing Risked, Nothing Gained

Nothing risked, nothing gained


The economic tide seems to have turned, inflation notwithstanding. This fiscal’s GDP percentage should easily be a goodish 7.2, as asserted by the Indian Government, the number’s impact only moderated by the relatively lightweight size of our one trillion dollar official economy. Next year the percentage is slated to go to 9, and the year after that could see the beginning of double-digit growth for the first time in India.

The rupee is strengthening steadily, and Foreign Institutional investment into the stock market is streaming in. We have received over USD 4.5 billion in the first quarter of 2010. But we might have attracted much more if our economy were larger, giving it the capacity to absorb larger inflows without overheating or creating bubbles.

Also, we can do better if our Debt Market were to be modernised to facilitate easy trading in debt instruments. Right now, it is largely illiquid in the absence of a sizeable secondary market. Consequently, even though the debt market is not particularly volatile, it only attracts foreign investment seeking to park; and as a hedge to equity investment; albeit in the positive backdrop of a rising rupee.

In addition, there is the steady inflow of Foreign Direct Investment that goes towards setting up new services and manufacturing facilities, as well as to increase capacity in existing establishments. India’s growth, principally driven by domestic demand is a more or less unique and compelling phenomenon.

Indian industry is borrowing well once again and getting on with bold organic growth and Mergers & Acquisitions based inorganic growth. These include foreign acquisitions; illustrated by the recent Bharti purchase of the UAE based Zain Telecom’s African assets. It is noteworthy that the billions of dollars involved were raised domestically by the Telecom major in under a month!

Our export numbers, including those from the most important IT software seem to be picking up nicely despite the persistent slowdown and weakness in the Western economies.

In addition, there is a renewed realisation that infrastructure development must keep pace if it is not to choke off further growth. This emphasis on infrastructure development with big-ticket investment in roads, highways, power, ports, airports, and so on in the civilian domain, plus military upgrades for our security needs, also feeds rather nicely into the GDP growth story.

The social sector moves, in continuation of the rich electoral dividend paying initiatives taken in UPA I, particularly in health and education lately, and the renewed emphasis on reaching the poorest of the poor at the most elemental level, are also, because of the expenditure (consumption) involved, good growth drivers. Millions of people at the bottom of the pyramid, variously estimated at between 300 and 650 million people, will gain from this along with the nation’s GDP numbers.

Meanwhile, even as we begin on a new census, and start recording the identities of our billion plus population via the Nandan Nilekani led UID (Unique Identification Scheme); the Indian GDP numbers are, fortunately, slated to rise four-fold from the 2006 figure of Rs. 41 lakh crore to Rs. 177 lakh crores in 2019-20, (Money Today- April 2010).

And therein lies a massive opportunity for the middle class. But there is a barrier of incomprehension that needs to be overcome first. After all, it seems unfair that so many educated and intelligent people should toil on without benefit of a respectable second income that their investments could afford them.

Nevertheless, “Investment”, says the Oracle of Omaha, Mr.Warren Buffet, hailed as the world’s most successful and consistent Value-Investor: “must be rational. If you don’t understand it, don’t do it”.

It is apparent, since only a miniscule 8 million Indians invest in shares and mutual funds, that most of the 300 million plus middle class are indeed clueless, afraid, or negatively influenced by stories of people ruined by their “greed”.

While this is true enough, most victims of this type gamble their all on speculative and volatile Day Trades and Futures and Options positions taken on a highly leveraged basis, because it is possible to trade on margin monies amounting to just 10 or 20 per cent of the total.

This kind of investment can be money for jam when the going is good but an unqualified disaster if things go wrong. But why should such rash fiscal behaviour put off the prudent investor? What benefit from savings languishing in bank deposits, postal savings accounts and the like, earning meagre returns eroded further by inflation?

Such people could aspire to double-digit returns year-on-year instead, at an average of about 15% over the medium to long-term, with investment horizons of five years or more. This underwritten by the fortunate historical circumstance of a rising GDP graph over the next many years. But this time will never come back once the economy matures.

In Warren Buffet’s America, nearly 50 per cent of the population in a 15 trillion dollar economy; does invest in the financial market directly. And an even higher percentage do so indirectly, via massive Pension, Hedge and Mutual Funds, some of which are active in India too.

While it is true that the American investor has lost money in the recent melt-down, the circumstance has much to do with risky instruments such as badly conceived derivatives,
unscrupulously foisted on the unsuspecting; combined with, once again, greedy or gullible people punching much above their weights.

Warren Buffet’s investors however, have done alright. Those who invested in his flagship Berkshire Hathaway and related funds have survived intact, protected from most of the financial turmoil due to his conservative investment style.

As it stands, most Indians with the wherewithal buy jewellery, and if better heeled, property; but very few, except for folks from Gujarat, buy stocks. This despite a near tax free scenario without limit for those who care to take the plunge.

Stocks are also much more liquid than gold or property and can be complementary to such investments. The statistics are tantalising. Domestic savings, good even now at 14% of GDP will grow to 16% of the much bigger economy in 10 years time. This will add a further Rs. 29.28 lakh crores to our investible kitty. More of us should seriously consider investing a proportion of this money in well-chosen Indian equity, through good mutual funds if not directly.

(1,049 words)

April 3rd, 2010
Gautam Mukherjee

Published as Leader Edit on Edit Page of The Pioneer on 7th April 2010 with same title. Also published online at http://www.dailypioneer.com/ and is archived there under Columnists.