When they begin they begin

When they begin they begin

Is the Chief Minister of West Bengal a little touched? Perhaps she is, because she conducts herself like Idi Amin Lite addled by Banquo’s Ghost. Which in this instance is no apparition in armour, but stamped in red and coming for her with hammer and sickle at the ready. The resultant paranoia is overwhelming her common sense and the benighted people of Paschimbanga are paying the price. It appears as if the toxicity induced by the lengthy affair with Leftism in the State will take at least a generation or two to leach out.

Back at the national capital, the BJP has won all three sections of the trifurcated MCD and retained its hold on the municipality, as it did when it was one large, unwieldy entity. This repeat MCD win, added to the growing number of states run by the BJP and its limited set of allies, suggests it is time to change gears to prepare for the main prize in 2014.

But here you’ve got camps within the Sangh Parivar. The ideology camp says Hindutva brought the BJP and its like-minded allies such as the Shiv Sena, all the way from two seats in Parliament to Principal Opposition Party with a full turn in power at the Centre. And that’s without mentioning the MCD, the Mumbai Municipality, and the States under its stewardship.

The change wallahs say this is all very well, but Hindutva puts off a lot of potential voters and cannot take the BJP any further, particularly in the active absence of a charismatic and inclusive leader like AB Vajpayee. So even though Centrism is the mantra to this lot, the unexciting roll out of such a thing lacks traction. The issues and stances that might show the BJP as Centrist are difficult to turn into emotive voting issues. Besides, it is all mainly about economics.

In contrast, it is argued, what are the chances of a political party that lets go of its core beliefs for electoral gain? This counter argument is indeed emotive and chooses to ignore the twists and turns of all parties in power in the name of pragmatism, whether they professed one belief or another in their manifestos or at the hustings.

Nevertheless, what is clear for the looming general elections in 2014, is that the BJP must build alliances based on quid pro quos well before the elections. Otherwise, it is going to find itself about a 100 seats short of a shot at the brass ring.  To get beyond a somewhat wobbly alliance with the JDU and another with the Akalis, albeit reinvigorated by the recent win in Punjab, is an unavoidable requirement.

Many analysts have indeed been saying this, but it is a tiger changing its stripes conundrum. The worry is that it won’t work with the voting public. And what if even the loyalists and faithful mistake it for a Zebra, stripes still intact, but quite a different animal nonetheless.

The answer might lie, as it does for the rival UPA alliance, in the pampering, finessing and assuring of regional aspirations. For the BJP, it also means a blunting of anti-minority rhetoric, even a ramping up of minority candidates, which saw it to victory in Catholic South Goa recently.

It is a model that can work very well elsewhere, with Muslim BJP candidates in Muslim majority areas and so on. This, along with a studied silence on the Hindutva shibboleths and a gag order to the RSS, the Bajrang Dal, the sadhus and mahants et al to cease and desist till at least the national elections are done with.

Sure, such strategic silence might be interpreted as no more than a temporary abeyance, but it might prove to be a good enough platform for moderates and fence-sitters to climb on board. And a postponement of Hindutva war cries such as the temple at Ayodhya, and the revocation of Article 370 in Kashmir, may not necessarily be regarded as abandonment of core beliefs for the ideologues.  Even those that argue that the overwhelmingly Left-Liberal-Secular Media are not necessarily representative of the actual voting public. They too can also take comfort in the fact that this is exactly what the Vajpayee led NDA did to both form itself, and stay in power for the full term.

But who in the BJP can be credible in delivering this series of messages to a national public? The name that springs to mind immediately is the Leader of the Opposition in the Rajya Sabha, Mr. Arun Jaitly. And reports state he has made up his mind to contest for a Lok Sabha seat at last. Mr. Jaitly certainly has the necessary articulation and could well be a Vajpayee-like consensus builder given his head.

And in a fragmented polity, a consensus builder is the crying need of the day whichever national formation one belongs to, lest both be held hostage by the regionals. They would then have no one to blame but themselves.

Other stalwarts in the Party, such as the redoubtable Mr. Narendra Modi, can be selectively deployed, along with Ms. Sushma Swaraj, Mr. Venkiah Naidu, veteran war horse Mr. LK Advani, Party President Mr. Nitin Gadkari, young firebrand Mr. Varun Gandhi. All of them and others can be tasked to manage various aspects of the consensus building and be committed to the need to not pull in different directions at once.

State satraps too can be very useful in building up this operation “Raft”. Amongst the allies, there is Mr. Nitish Kumar and the Badals and one time familiars to be wooed back such as Mr. Patnaik and Madame Jayalalithaa. The question of the PM’s gaddi can be left till after the elections are won and be arrived at by consensus too.

It may seem like a tall order given the demonstrated inability of the Sangh Parivar to work in unison after the retirement of AB Vajpayee from active politics. But if the DRDO can launch an ICBM with just three years of sustained effort led by a lady scientist, Ms. Tessy Thomas, dubbed the “Agniputri”; it is by no means impossible.

The peculiar lack of hunger for capturing power at the Centre that some of the fractiousness suggests however, is that perhaps many in the party are content as they are. They have power and influence while the UPA carries the can. It is a having one’s cake and eating it too stratagem. But for those of us who back the BJP and vote for it, we surely deserve better treatment by our leaders.

(1,094 words)

20^th April 2012

Gautam Mukherjee

A Central Banker's Vision

BOOK REVIEW

Book Title: Emerging India-Economics Politics & Reforms

Author: Bimal Jalan

Publisher: Penguin Viking, 2012

Price: Rs. 599/-

A Central Banker’s Vision

Every page of Bimal Jalan’s new book on the economy of a broadly reformist India underscores the vast potential of India. As a highly erudite central banker and top flight economist, Mr. Jalan’s narrative balances the accomplishments since the first tentative moves to unleash India’s economic destiny from its Socialist shackles. While this began in the mid-eighties and even earlier, the breathtaking possibilities waiting to be taken up even in 2012 are most compelling.

Whenever one reads a book of distinguished essays and speeches such as this, one is reminded of the extent to which independent India has erred on the side of caution if not inertia. And this, perhaps because it is very difficult for a political class weaned on the failed promise and rhetoric of Socialism to totally cast off its brain numbing effects. That policies based on the Socialist ethos delivered little beyond spiteful beggar-thy-rich stratagems and the stifling straightjacket of the infamous licence-permit Raj is now well accepted.

But today most parliamentarians are busy operating the leverages of coalition politics with its endless jockeying for narrow gain at the expense of the common weal.   Still, since policy must be made with the existent environment, India can only make progress by working within the bounds of coalition governments both at the Centre and quite often in the States as well. In addition, factionalism within parties is also part of the dynamic of democracy today as are the demands of regionalism.

Mr. Jalan covers a lot of ground in this compendium of various papers, speeches and essays and is consistently in favour of  liberalisation and reform. He rejects, quite unequivocally, the old and failed “command and control” policies copied from the Soviets. He also questions the efficacy of the elaborate five year plans in the absence of a dynamic “public delivery system” at the “Centre, state and district” levels.

Mr. Jalan plainly states: “Without strengthening the ability of  the government to do what it alone an do, and narrowing the focus of its activities to what matters most for the future development of the country-education, health, clean environment and a functioning infrastructure- India cannot adequately seize the opportunities that lie ahead.” He goes on to say, “No amount of macro-policy reforms by themselves will be sustainable or yield permanent results.”

This manifestation of government malfunction alluded to is evident to all, but while prescriptions on what can and should be done are plentiful if only in outline, he is unable to address the dilemma of narrow vested interest that define the success and tenor of implementation in this country. At best, India can take comfort in the trickle down effect of growth which tends to blunt the hungry competitiveness of disparate interests.

Mr. Jalan, as a former RBI Governor, is particularly refreshing in his comments on the future of central banking in India. He wants to see a further “strengthening of our prudential, provisioning and capitalisation norms” to “bring them in line with best international standards.” We may however, have to devise these for ourselves because the “international” ones have not exactly covered themselves with glory.

He also wants “maximum transparency, disclosure and accountability” and votes for “increase” in the “capitalisation” of banks “quite substantially”. This of course, cannot be faulted because our banking system is much too small to meet the requirements of high trajectory growth and development.

And he wants a legal system that delivers justice quickly as the present state of affairs is not “tenable,” but this, of course, calls for substantial legal reform.

Mr. Jalan is in favour of pragmatic action for managing currency and exchange rate fluctuations rather than the adoption of rigid policy stances either in terms of a complete  “free-float” or high levels of intervention. This too makes sense as it allows the Reserve Bank of India to react appropriately to varying situations, some far away from our own borders, on a case to case basis and over the medium term.

Mr. Jalan’s latest book has a broad-brush approach and a predominantly liberal stance, but since it is a collection of writings as opposed to a book in situ, it offers few detailed insights on the topics covered.

The problem with a discussion on India’s economy is that there are precious few items such as the IITs and IIMs, a clutch of core-sector industries, and a backbone such as the antiquated but yet impressive Indian Railways worth retaining from the past. For the rest, we have to look to a vision for the future which is a fresh construct arrived at by an inductive leap without the baggage of fear of exploitation or even that of progress. This is not such a book, but perhaps we can look forward to a path-breaking economic vision for the future when Mr. Jalan finds the time and inspiration to write it.

(807 words)

April 15^th 2012

Gautam Mukherjee

Published in The Sunday Pioneer on 22nd April 2012 as "Central banker's reformist vision" on the BOOKS page in the Agenda Section.Also online at www.dailypioneer.com and in The Pioneer ePaper.

The Age of Miracles

The Age of Miracles

Innocence and the miraculous somehow go together. Take out the one and the other wilts and fades. And along with receding innocence goes youth. And this can happen at any biological age. You can have 12 year old ravagees with “tombstones in their eyes” and 90 year olds with their impish inner-child intact.

Applied to the akhara of Indian politics, and indeed the international political landscape in all its varied hue, innocence would probably transform into idealism. And idealism is definitely in short supply in today’s world.

Idealism is ever denigrated as the dewy-eyed impracticality of school boys not fit for mature discourse in the thrust and parry of real politics. And where it rears its inconvenient head despite the almost universal attempt to scorn and shame it into decline, it is promptly corralled into a reservation of non-governmental activism. The suggestion is that idealism is not mainstream political activity, riddled with impracticality as it is. And thus, the baby goes out with the bathwater.

But if history and political theory is to be believed, it wasn’t always so. Great movements and struggles, we are told, were born out of lofty idealism. It was idealism that fired the imagination of people and received their commitment. It was the self- same that moved mountains of opposition and perceived injustice with its sheer motivational strength.

And yet, every once in a while, an act of political will cuts through the fog of cynicism and calibrated calculation that passes for political leadership. The bounty of $ 10 million announced for the head of brazen terrorist-at-large Hafiz Saeed by the US Government is one such clear-eyed act of idealism.

Hafiz Saeed, supported by the Pakistani Government and establishment, pretends to run a clutch of charitable organisations while preaching obscurantist hatred against the classic targets of Hinduism, Zionism and Christianity. It’s not that he doesn’t, but the charity is a cover.

But if Saeed Hafiz was just a rabid preacher and demagogue it would be bad enough. As it happens he is also a hands-on terrorist himself and a leading light of the infamous Lashkar-e-Taiba, which supports and trains killers and fanatics. They, in turn, go out and do its bidding and that of the Pakistani Government via the formidable Inter-Services-Intelligence (ISI).

Everything Hafiz Saeed’s followers do thereafter can be cloaked in the garb of “non-governmental actors” for the “plausible deniability” the ploy offers. And the Pakistani establishment nurtures a number of very competent Saeed Hafizes, many of them highly trained ex-army or ex-ISI operatives, along with their hate spouting organisations.

 It is now universally recognised that Pakistan has refined the techniques of terrorism as an instrument of state policy like no other country around the world. It has been called “the most dangerous country in the world” on more than one occasion. Even the LTTE was not the Government of Sri Lanka but only a break-away movement in the cause of an elusive Tamil Eelam, and neither was it a nuclear power!

But in Pakistan, this could change at any time, creating the first non-governmental nuclear power in the world.  So the long awaited decision to put Saeed Hafiz in the cross hairs of US accusation is not a hollow thing. After an interminable delay since 26/11 which took place in 2008, it strikes a clear cut blow at the root of international hypocrisy and selectivism in terrorism targeting.

The global nightmare is that the Pakistani Government and its nuclear arsenal could fall to the institutionalised terrorists in the country grown terribly powerful over the years. It is also a truism of history that revolution, even if one were to characterise the jihadi mindset as righteous, tends to devour its own children. While that would be very sad, particularly for the more enlightened sections of Pakistani Civil Society, it would be catastrophic for the targets of Islamic terror around the world.

The facts that have come to light since the US went into Abbotabad and eliminated Osama Bin Laden, shows him living in different locations in Pakistan with the connivance of the Pakistani Government, for most of the over 11 years since 9/11. The bluster and denial, the leaning on Saudi diplomacy to reduce the pressure from America, the petulant threats at large from the Pakistani military that violations of its territorial sovereignty, including the routine US drone attacks, would be stoutly resisted, have not worked. Neither has the admirable articulation of its foreign office and media stalwarts.

Intelligence sources around the world are of the opinion that the strategic triangle on which Pakistani political thinking is built involves first, the backing from China, second, an anti-India policy as a justification to nurture an elaborate terrorist network designed to bleed it, and third, the blackmailing of the West, particularly the US, over Afghanistan for money and military hardware to run an otherwise bankrupt economy.

The problem, as with all Frankensteinish creations, is that each tends to take on a life of its own and refuses to follow the script. And so, the “death by a thousand cuts” strategy against India has been largely stymied by the strategic depth provided by a country teeming with over 1.2 billion people. It is difficult to judge whether Maoist violence in India, or Islamic terrorism, or indeed border and territorial tensions with China have primacy here.

The backing of China for Pakistan comes at the price of being reduced to a satellite and subordinate state. It is forced to serve China’s own geo-political ambitions in the Gulf, Baluchistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, the Indian Ocean littoral and in international fora.

The West is now coming around to the view-point that crippling Pakistan’s terrorist factory is essential to draw its poison teeth, and not just in terms of its projected withdrawal from Afghanistan.

That still leaves its nuclear arsenal intact of course, but hopefully it will continue be the responsibility of moderate and reasonable people in the political and military space in Pakistan. Besides, the West knows that the main proliferator in nuclear matters in recent times is China, with Pakistan and North Korea only playing supporting roles.

But is there idealism afoot here too? Is the US Government putting the finger on Hafiz Saeed in order to seek retributive justice? Was that at the root of the action to kill Osama Bin Laden not so long ago?  Some would say that it is, and marks yet another instance of how the true and straight-forward can indeed serve statecraft and make the world a safer place to live in.

(1,093 words)

April 4^th, 2012

Gautam Mukherjee


Published as Leader Edit on the Edit Page of The Pioneer as "Return to idealism" on 16th April 2012 and online at www.dailypioneer.com