BOOK REVIEW- Raghav Bahl's SUPER ECONOMIES: The Triumvirate Of The Future?

BOOK REVIEW

Title:                         SUPER ECONOMIES-America, India, China & The Future Of The World

Author:                    RAGHAV BAHL

Publisher:               ALLEN LANE, Penguin Books, 2015.

Price:                        Rs. 699/-

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The Triumvirate Of The Future?

There is a David Lean-like sweep to this book. You could be looking at the vast beach in Ryan’s Daughter, that timeless metaphor, and setting, for much of the tight human drama that film portrayed.

Super Economies presents a breath-taking vista, and makes you wish for a role in government for its author, one that can utilise his considerable ability for lateral thinking, his articulation, and his most engaging sincerity.

This book, is in large part, a Churchillian recounting of recent history, to act as backdrop for Raghav Bahl’s vision for the future, particularly that of India’s place in it. This is the media mogul’s second book, again on the broad socio-politico-economic landscape. It positions India as an emerging super economy, not just because of the potential financial numbers, but its global utility, particularly to America.

And India is positioned affably alongside America and China, to make up a new global triumvirate . One that postulates an interdependence that may be ideal according to the author, but one that might not quite fructify on future ground. There can be, in the structural conceit of ‘sovereign nations’, as Tim Rice wrote once for the musical Jesus Christ Superstar, ‘No King but Caesar’.

Nevertheless, are we then, per Super Economies, looking at three countries, in a preeminent class by themselves, standing in for a new Julius Caesar, Pompey Magnus; great generals both, plus a rich as Midas Crassus?

And if so, will not the ancient, time-worn jockeying for personal advantage fray and eventually destroy the synergies once more?  Bahl thinks not, though that first triumvirate did collapse, despite its many theoretical gains.

If there is a soft spot in Bahl’s considerable erudition, it is probably his idealism. Because the world has singularly failed to run on idealism so far, but then again, nothing worthwhile has ever been accomplished without the integrity of idealism either.  Undoubtedly, a man with a vision like Bahl’s, cannot help but leave his mark on global geopolitical strategy.

But there may be also, a fundamental miscalculation in Bahl’s thesis, one that will strengthen, not weaken America’s top-dog status. That fundament is the US hold on a fountain of original technology, that no country on earth comes even close to mirroring.

America is the world’s number one inventor. Ergo, unless this changes, it will always lead the known world, no matter how militarily strong, ingenious, thrifty, industrious, or competitive, countries such as China and India may become.

The eventual solving of the global pressure over petroleum, extant since Sheikh Yamani’s first oil-pricing shock of the 70s, is just one dramatic case in point. Today, a combination of enhanced domestic production and shale oil has created US self-sufficiency, up from being 50% importer of the world’s production.

And let us remember that it is America’s invention and proven efficacy of the nuclear bomb, a zero sum game today assuring mutual destruction, that has put a harness on naked aggression beyond a point; and globally.

Besides, did China make its own economic miracle, or did America make it for it? Was it Deng or was it Nixon? And was the purpose to outsource low- grade, labour intensive manufacturing, or put paid to the USSR; or both?

‘Geopolitics’, it may well all be, as Bahl, and Kissinger before him said, but one cannot overplay the hand of interdependence.  There will be very few future changes in borders allowed to further a hegemon’s ambitions.

Today, the little old Baltic States, and the Eastern Provinces etc. once under the yoke of the USSR, have found their independent feet again - for the first time since 1914.

This, if it comes to it, is what will strain the triumvirate any day of the week. So China will not be allowed to annex Taiwan any time soon; and certainly not before it becomes democratic, effectively dismantling the way it is today. But though Bahl expects this democracy to come to China too, will it survive intact when it does, any more than the USSR did?

And, ‘America, China and India will not unite to staunch Islamic terrorism’ either. This might look logical to Bahl and many of his readers, but history does not support such common sense.

Yes the jihad will end, but only after the blood-letting of countless battles eventually purges the radicalism. The gush of oil and drug money that fuels it will have to first reduce to a trickle, and then stop.  

Like the barbaric crusading, inquisitorial excesses of previous centuries,  Islamic terrorism too will be rejected, by Muslims themselves. It will die a natural death of neglect. No guerrilla war has ever been snuffed out by state intervention, and neither will this one. More so, in this Age of the Internet and extreme connectivity.

Also, diverse, pluralistic, India, geographically distant from America, will never quite become its strategic partner and British-style ‘poodle’ from across the ‘pond’. At best, these two countries will be benign allies going forward, but not at the expense of India’s strategic friendship with China, the Far East, Australia, Canada, Europe, West Asia, Africa, Russia, our neighbours in SAARC, including, willy-nilly, China’s stooge, Pakistan.

Bahl’s book is quite the grand-tourer, and segues into many destinations with engaging readability, but the hard reality it glosses over, even as it expects India to be a $ 5 trillion economy by 2025, is that India will not catch up to China for decades to come. This, despite its 9% projected growth per annum. It will therefore, at best, qualify as a junior partner or senior associate in the scheme of things.

Both America and China, growing at a much slower rate, are in a different economic league, expanding from a size that is many multiples of India’s.

Besides, India’s much touted ‘demographic dividend’, has yet to prove itself; not just in terms of discipline and productivity, but also because of a primitive patriarchal culture that looks down on its female population.

But yes, Bahl never asserts that it is going to be an equal triumvirate.  Fact is, India will become the third largest economy in the world, and that, by itself, is nothing to sniff at.

For: The Pioneer On Sunday

(1,024 words)

April 29^th, 2015

Gautam Mukherjee

Incoherence

Incoherence

There is a sense of frustrating drift in the Indian Government’s progress. Its image is taking a daily beating. But perhaps the steep downward curve has been arrested by natural calamity.

With the powerful earthquake in Nepal on the 25^th of April, followed by prompt and decisive relief action from India, the Modi Government has been able to once again seize the initiative. Of   course, without the right spin in the messaging on its actions, even this yeoman effort could boomerang against it as the days go on.

The devastation in Nepal and bordering parts of India, China and the Mount Everest area, has put a temporary lid on the Government’s struggles. It is sad to see it battling to get the Land Bill passed though it will certainly help the marginal farmer. Likewise, the GST bill being introduced, which will both streamline and improve the revenue collection of the States.

But, no one in the Government is succeeding in putting these things across, either to the parliamentarians, or the public, and the RSS is speaking in  many tongues as well. Meanwhile, why is the Government not using the Land Acquisition Ordinance, re-promulgated recently, to push things through, even in the flagship DMIC initiative?

Instead, its seeming timidity, disarray, and confusion, is being exploited by an Opposition that probably can’t believe its luck.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Government have certainly not been given the credit for their many small achievements in its first year in office. This, probably because after raising expectations sky-high, very few of the moves have been particularly dramatic or big-bang in nature.

Because of high expectations, whatever has come through, is still seen to be underwhelming. The passage of the long pending Insurance Bill, along with the Coal and Mining Bills recently were indeed important reformist gains. But, as far as the public goes, they took too long, and are not enough to get things moving again.

The auctioning of Coal Blocks and telecommunications Spectrum, the deregulation of diesel prices, were all handled well. This Government has also been very good at evacuating its nationals from war zones and jumping to disaster relief. But it can’t seem to get much credit for it.

Meanwhile, its ‘Make in India’ programme is yet to take off, giving many analysts a chance to criticise its premises and assumptions. The infrastructure push has not yielded much as yet. The effort to streamline subsidies and help farmers is commendable, if unspectacular. The ‘smart cities’ are waiting to be born. The Railways are still languishing - and so on. 

Perhaps the biggest thing that has happened over the last year is the halving of oil prices, beginning to climb a little again. The resultant benefits are a lower import bill and a perceptible drop in inflation. But the Modi Government can scarcely take the credit for either. 

The overall PR/Advertising/Social Media strategy of the Modi Government over the first year of its operation, has clearly failed. Where is the focus? Has the budget for this crucial activity been cut? Who is driving it? Why is the glass regarded as half empty? Why does the rest of the Government beyond Modi and Arun Jaitley, and perhaps Rajnath Singh and Parikkar too, seem so amateur and idle? What is the Niti Aayog doing differently?

The pervasive, scattered, incoherent, somewhat fatigued, if not exhausted messaging, coming after a brilliant, energetic and well-coordinated election campaign, is a surprising disappointment. It is as if the Government in office does not quite know how to package itself.

Or has a premature and unwarranted complacency set in? Despite its robust majority in the Lok Sabha, and no corruption scandals to speak of, this Government is perceived to be on the back foot, struggling just to govern the day-to-day.

Why does it permit indiscipline in its ranks via repeated crude remarks from some of its unchecked MPs, and blatant opposition from its allies? It puts a new if unhappy spin on inner-alliance democracy! What will happen when the quasi federal States are further empowered with greater control of their own finances?

The NDA Government is also being undercut cruelly by elements in the Sangh Parivar itself, and embarrassed by its incipient minority bashing tendencies. Is Modi himself also complicit in the retrograde thinking to some extent, like the Mukhauta they used to call former PM Vajpayee? This would perhaps explain his enigmatic silences and refusal to act. And Congress is, once again, punching much above its weight. 

And yet this Government handles those responsible for Congress corruption when it was in office with kid gloves. It hasn’t even moved on Robert Vadra’s wrong doings!

State Governments run by the BJP outright, not to mention those in coalition, are adding to the negative perception, owing to its insensitive and provocative actions such as the recently imposed ban on beef.

Even various arms of the non-elected and bureaucratic innards of Government are adding to the problem. The CBDT’s tardy bids at retrospective taxation once again via MAT is ill-timed, particularly after the FM promised to do away with ‘tax terrorism’, and just when the country badly needs foreign investment.

The Intelligence Agencies and Home Ministry have started unnecessary new fires with their recent scrutiny of Ford Foundation and crack down on Greenpeace funding. How will this kind of ham-fisted thing encourage the foreigners? 

Quango organisations such as the  reconstituted Censor Board, are taking bizarre prudery to unprecedented new levels. A year on, where is the modern market-friendly Government that Modi persists in promoting, particularly during his frequent foreign trips?

Of course, a big programme is in the works to celebrate one year of the Modi Government in office. But the Government should realise that it is likely to end up as a defensive sarkari laundry list, and fall on mostly deaf ears.

The loss of goodwill, the lack of positive perceptual reinforcement, is probably the consequence of a clumsy do-it-yourself media strategy, bad advice, or even a disastrous  scaling down of PR/Advertising/Social Media effort. This is ironic, because after all is said and done, this Government has probably done more in one year in office, than the previous UPA Government did in ten. 

But the messaging is all wrong. Consequently, there is a substantial erosion of both the Modi Wave and the NDA Government’s image. More so after the drubbing it received in the badly handled Delhi State elections, and at the hands of a fledgling AAP. 

It is clearly one thing to win a general election, however spectacularly, and quite another to sustain the goodwill of the people over a five year term in office. Whatever has been done over the last year to explain the Government’s achievements has just not cut the mustard.  At times, the Government even seems hostile to the media and calls it names.

Meanwhile even its line-up of spokespersons is indifferent. There are presently none of the calibre of Union Commerce Minister Nirmala Sitaraman to explain complex issues with simplicity and verve. The BJP Party apparatus run by Amit Shah might be doing good grass roots work perhaps, but it is singularly lacking in charisma. 

Narendra Modi himself, who has reportedly long used PR and Advertising  agencies such as the alchemical APCO Worldwide from Washington DC, Madison, McCann, O&M, and others, in India, has apparently dispensed with them now.

This has created a vacuum and allowed a decimated Congress and other parties to get back in the fray, supported by a media that is largely sympathetic to a familiar if played-out myth of inclusive, pluralistic, and pro-poor governance.    

Modi on his part has deliberately avoided appointing a media manager and ambitiously assumed the mantle himself. He continues his one-way communication with the public via his direct tweets and facebook comments, his Mann Ki Baat radio programme on AIR, and occasional taped messages via DD. But something is badly amiss, with both the tone and tenor, and most of it lacks the passion of 2013-14.

But of course, Narendra Modi is also the Prime Minister and the de facto Foreign Minister. This is quite a work load, and may be why the messaging is suffering.

Meanwhile the messaging from the Government is sporadic, infrequent, incoherent, without the overarching purposes coming through. It also lacks sophistication. There is no classic ‘key message’ being drummed home, unless it is ‘Sabka Saath Sabka Vikaas’, itself left over from the highly professional election campaign, along with ‘Abki Baar, Modi Sarkaar’, and other such brilliantly emotive slogans.

But the current reality simply does not match. The soft-pedalling of bold stage two reform, the glacially slow pace of interest rate cuts, the non-existent tax or labour reforms, all flies in the face of it. A year on, the early promise of millions of manufacturing jobs does not look like it is coming through.  

But despite all the restiveness and criticism, this Government continues to be mired in a meek incrementalism, and a fearful over-caution.   This is inexplicable, given the size of its electoral mandate, the wins of several big states in subsequent Assembly elections, and Modi’s continued copious and bold promises.

Modi’s goodwill too, while eroded, is far from gone. But which Ivory Tower on Race Course Road is Modi locked up in? There is a growing disconnect between the public and its leadership, a credibility gap, that has set in all too soon in the life of this Government.

It is not enough to plough on doggedly. The image of the Government needs the urgent attention of communication professionals, to tell it like it is, but put best feet forward, to set things right once again.

For : Swarajyamag

(1,606words)

April 27^th, 2015

Gautam Mukherjee

The Unglamorous World Of Implementation

The Unglamorous World Of Implementation

It was probably CNN, when it was owned by Ted Turner, which first gave credence and pride of place to the ‘Citizen Journalist’, particularly for eye-witness footage, and man bites dog stories.

Not only was this amateur footage used on international satellite TV, but the production values were jollied up as much as they could be, and seamlessly integrated into the big-tent professionalism that CNN injected. Many other broadcasters followed this gritty lead into the authentic and unvarnished, till today, it has become commonplace.

But CNN was full of firsts back then. Wasn’t Turner’s satellite TV channel the first to cover that one-sided Gulf War I of 1991? And we all had ring-side seats and popcorn to Bush Senior’s Iraq pounding, one that just stopped short of ‘taking out’ Saddam. All   of it in full colour and ‘live’. There was even a genial interview with Saddam to boot.

It was an All-American aerial fight, no Yankee boots on the ground whatsoever, terrific precision bombing, from miles away in the stratosphere, and way over the sea.

That photogenic war, unlike Bush Junior’s wade into Gulf War II, was neatly funded by the Kuwaitis too. The neighbours were naturally outraged by Hussein’s earlier invasion, and pretentions to annexation, oil fields and all.

Some say Saddam was deliberately led astray by the Americans. They apparently backed his claims till he fell for it, letting him violate and call Kuwait no more than Iraq’s traditional 19^th province.

Ah nostalgia! Remember all that pretty anti-aircraft gun tracery lighting up the night sky? And those Diwali-style bomb explosions, as entire streets in the Government districts of Baghdad were obliterated?

And then CNN also covered those daily briefings, unedited, given by that hilariously unselfconscious ‘Chemical Ali’. ‘Ali’ was the unlikely chief spokesperson for Saddam. There, in his jaunty black beret, his impossible syntax and Arabian bombast.

Chemical Ali, Saddam Hussein’s first cousin, was hauled up and finally hanged for war crimes in 2010. His evocative moniker, given unto him by the gradually sizeable international press corps, camped in Baghdad in 1991, was for being the hero of an earlier comprehensive gassing of the revolting Kurds in the North.  

Ted Turner himself was then married to Jane Fonda , famous (and admired), ever since her young turn as Barbarella, and later, not just for her acting  and activism.  Besides, Ted wore white cowboy hats and string ties on occasion. He also bought thousands of acres of pristine forest land in Montana, mostly in order to preserve it.

To come across that same citizen reporter spirit of CNN, applied to a dire need, unsuspectingly, in Goa’s Assagaon; was something of a surprise.

There, in the tree-shaded courtyard of an old Goan bungalow. That courtyard serves as an al fresco restaurant on every day, except a weekly off.

I witnessed a presentation of the work being done in various parts of India by an American NGO called Video Volunteers(VV) . It was established circa 2003 by a young lady called Jessica Mayberry in New York who still runs it in India along with one Stalin K.

VV works in Brazil and the US too, and posts a lot of its work both on facebook and Youtube. Its videos are rebroadcast, on occasion, also by some Indian news channels, digital platforms, and the well-known Huffington Post.

Predictably, the general public and the bulk of the national media tend to ignore its unglamorous but useful efforts. VV provides a video-camera and rudimentary training in its use to grass-roots activists. These people are drawn mostly from rural and semi-urban local areas, and pays them a salary too.

What is refreshing about VV’s work, and merits kudos, is that its attitude is not on the usual Far-Left collision course with the establishment. Instead, it is focussed on the ‘last mile’ implementation of so many of our Government welfare schemes, notorious for their pilferage and non-delivery.

There were tales of village level exclusion of Dalits for Government benefits and infrastructure engineered by their higher caste neighbours. This, till the taken video was shown to the DM.

It was former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi who remarked that it was perhaps 5% ,or at the most 15% of the money and benefit, that actually reached  intended recipients. And that was said over 30 years ago. 

VV essentially tracks the deliverers, and does it through local residents who manage, more often than not, to persuade the local administration and the designated providers of Government largesse to pony up.  Remarkably, there is no shaming or punishing. 

What then is VV’s deep-throat other purposes apart from helping the disadvantaged? Are they looking for converts? Are they fomenting class or caste war? No, apparently not. It is as peaceful and non CIA as the erstwhile Peace Corps. VV is unassumingly HQ’d in North Goa, but recognised and funded by several international institutions and governments, including that of the British. 

Of course, in India, NGO work is considered for reporting on mass media only if there is a celebrity around.  So, Arundhati Roy helping out Medha Patkar qualifies, as does Rahul Gandhi slumming it in the depths of  Kalawatiland in the company of  David Milliband.  Arvind Kejriwal, a long-term activist cum NGO type himself , protest  sleeping on the pavement in the chill of a Delhi winter, certainly hacks it!

An unleavened peasant, rambling on, or whining about his woes on TV, is considered edit-outably tiresome. With the kind of attention span most people have, and the TRP ratings TV news channels have to compete for, this is not surprising.    

Some of the bigger global outfits in the NGO cum Foundation space, such as Greenpeace and Ford Foundation have recently been put under the Indian Government’s scanner for suspected activities that are once removed from doing good. The intelligence and tax agencies are both looking into it.

Taking issue with NGOs and their supporters, predictably anti-nuclear, anti-dam, road and bridge, pro-terrorist and separatist, is thought to be anti-democratic. The Modi Government, undaunted, seems to be cracking down on some of these organisations anyway.

Is VV into blocking things too? Well, it doesn’t want builders building on every square inch of paddy field in Goa. Or the Government building a bridge to reach a proposed golf course, when there is already a ferry, digging up a beautiful beach in the process.

But true to its gentle style, VV doesn’t protest too vigorously. Video Volunteers could, in fact, be very useful as an independent outsourced resource, to test the efficacy of various Government nostrums.

For: The Pioneer

 (1,090 words)

April 24^th, 2015

Gautam Mukherjee

The El Dorado In Indian Temple Vaults

The El Dorado In Indian Temple Vaults

There  is an estimated 3,000 tonnes of gold in India’s temple vaults worth billions of dollars. This  quantum of gold alone is about two-thirds of that held at Fort Knox by the US Government. Another 17,000 tonnes approximately, is held by the citizenry, as a hedge against inflation, the vagaries of paper money, and for traditional and religious reasons. And there is more pouring into the country every day.

The Modi Government could well tap into much of this El Dorado shortly, if it is willing to pay at least 5% on the gold deposited, with an any-time withdrawal scheme alongside.  But there is a lot of detailing yet to be done,  many sophistications to be incorporated, before the proposed scheme/s can work in a dynamic fashion.

The interest rate that will be paid is indeed crucial to the initiative’s success, because a similar scheme launched in 1999 failed for this very reason, amongst others. At that time, only 2.5% was offered by way of interest. So the Government could garner only a paltry 15 tonnes of gold by way of deposits.

India imports at least 1,000 tonnes of gold every year, representing over 25% of its trade deficit, and the Modi Government wants to substitute a lot of this with its internal gold reserves, if the intended new scheme works well.

The personal and some of the hundi offerings of gold , if deposited with the Government, will be turned from jewellery and ornaments, into bullion, wherever applicable. This will destroy both sentimental attachments and virtuoso workmanship in certain cases.

This uniquely Indian, largely handmade workmanship, is acknowledged globally to be amongst the finest. Some jewellery pieces therefore are priceless, worth much more than their grammage and gold values.  Some gold deposited in jewellery form may  also be replete with embedded precious stones. These will need to be separated and returned promptly. The worked gold encasements can however only be returned in the form of equivalent coins and bullion, albeit with Government certified 24 carat purity. The precious stones can presumably be returned soon after the deposit is made, and before the assaying and  melting process begins.

Most Indian jewellery/ ornaments tend to be of at least 21 carat purity. This is distinct from jewellery of European or American provenance, that is not only often machine- made, except when made by the very best jewellers, but largely in 18 carat.

For the purposes of these Government schemes, it is the melted and reconstituted gold in 24 carat Government certified and hallmarked purity, that will, of course, be the norm and standard. 

Fortunately, some of the gold both in the temple vaults and in family safe-keeping, is in the form of coins or bullion too. And it will be both simpler and ideal to press this into the nation’s service at first.

The Government will have to maintain sufficient buffer stocks at all times to tackle the issue of smooth withdrawals. This could happen at any time, to varying degrees, for multiple reasons, rather as in open-ended mutual funds. But more especially, if the international gold prices rise sharply and individual depositors want to sell their physical gold to book their profits.

Institutional temple gold may behave differently, and that is why the Government may prefer to deal with it at first. Besides, just one famous temple, the Shree Siddhivinayak Temple in Mumbai, dedicated to Lord Ganpati, has an estimated $ 67 million in gold (some 158 kg in gold offerings), in its heavily guarded vaults.  And this temple seems willing to support this Modi initiative given the right terms.

Temple administrations may not be attracted to liquidating their assets even at much higher prices. They may instead prefer to renegotiate even higher rates of interest from time to time, as with a bank, that may well be the vehicles that the gold deposit schemes will use. This could be based on higher gold values that may obtain in future years.

Besides some institutional gold investors may prefer to have the Government pay a healthy, floating rate of interest, rathher like a housing loan, on their enhanced and constantly revalued hoard. Others may prefer to hedge against falling prices by going in for a fixed rate, for a fixed and predetermined period and tenure.

There are many pointers the Government can take from international Gold Exchanges and their practices, including the involvement of Gold Hedge Funds, and existing schemes that offer gold shares and units. This could let the Government also speculate in the commodity, while securing the investor with Sovereign guarantees.

The Gold stocks held by the Government, even during a specified lock-in period, if applicable, will need to be revalued according to daily gold prices, both domestic and international. In the domestic context, because of a constant high demand for traditional, ceremonial, and marriage purposes, particularly during the auspicious marriage season, gold is generally at a premium on the international pricing.

So, all Indian and NRI/PIO /diaspora/institutional physical gold depositors, will expect their gold to be valued at the higher of the two prices, both day-to- day, or even moment to-moment as in the case of equity and currency, during share and commodity trading hours internationally; and at the time of withdrawal.

And the daily interest rates payable, must be calculated on the fluctuating daily value of the deposited gold, on a real-time basis, as well. There may be an attractive arbitrage opportunity here, as in the case of NRI bank deposits too.

There is, of course, some orthodox sentiment against this proposal to leverage ‘God’s Gold’ for the mere sustenance of a trade or fiscal deficit. But at the same time, the forces of Hindutva, tacitly backed by many amongst the 80 per cent Hindu majority, are not opposed to the idea of helping Narendra Modi’s sarkar, rooted in the nationalist/patriotic RSS traditions.

Modi himself, austere in his personal habits, scrupulously honest, devoted to engineering a greater prosperity for all, inspires increasing confidence, both nationally and internationally. The Indian people, as a whole, seem willing to let him access this gold and put it to work for the benefit of the country.

If this patriotic fervour communicates itself to the public, some of the additional 17,000 tonnes of gold could also be tapped. Organisations such as Muthoot have been successfully working in the space of ‘gold loans’ for individuals over a long time.

It is incumbent however to design the Government schemes will sufficient advantages over whatever is currently available from the private sector. And the ever-dreaded sarkari bureaucracy needs to be replaced by efficiency, ease of use, and speed of execution, in practice.

For: The Pioneer

(1, 107 words)

April 13^th, 2015

Gautam Mukherjee

Blow Gabriel Blow!

Blow Gabriel Blow!

Blow amongst those leaves, O Zarathustra, that everything withered may run away from thee faster!- Thus Spake Zarathustra, Friedrich Nietzsche

As Prime Minister Narendra Modi goes through his uniquely bold and cautious paces in France, Germany, and Canada, he has a substantial list of to dos.  Many of the protocols he has and will sign address the less glamorous but extremely useful areas of our development. This includes a number of agreements involving ISRO.

But of course, the 126 aircraft  Dassault Rafale fighter deal in France, possible other, civilian aircraft manufacture in India involving Airbus, nuclear power, and its fuel,  in France and again in Canada, will necessarily get top media billing.

The German leg of the journey should also leverage German industry, its economic heft, and its reputation for engineering excellence, for our mutual benefit. The Germans, on their part, are keen on manufacturing the extensive electronics for the Defence equipment to be made in India.

Flying in the first 36 French-made Dassault Rafale fighters on an outright purchase basis, as soon as possible, does away with the uncertainty that has dogged this ‘biggest ever open tender for fighter aircraft’ worth over $ 20 billion.

That it is moving into operationalised state at last, appeals to common sense, particularly given the depleted state of our aged fighter squadrons, and their reputation for being ‘flying coffins’.

But there will also be a lot, 90 odd, to be made by the ponderous HAL at Bengaluru later. But hopefully Modi will ensure private sector participation in the Rafale’s local manufacturing, and demand an adherence to deadlines.

This massive French deal also represents a major diversification of source of our critical military equipment. Similarly, in the matter of the much delayed 9,900 MW Jaitapur Nuclear Power Plant, bedeviled by the unrealistic nuclear liability clauses, and relentless cost overruns, L&T has just signed an agreement with AREVA of France that will shave off some of the expense. This, even as it fuels a $ 2.5 billion opportunity for L&T, to make some of the nuclear equipment parts in India.

In the past, let us remember, nothing tended to involve $2.5 billion domestic manufacturing opportunities, even cumulatively; but in Modi’s scheme of things, this seems like a drop in his commodious bucket.

France has incidentally also pledged 2 billion Euros in investment into three Indian ‘smart cities’, and promised to give Indians tourist visas in 48 hours, despite the formidable requirements of the Schenzen Visa!

India has bought some state-of-the art equipment from Israel and the US of late too. And there are possibilities for domestic manufacture of helicopters from the US, and news that America will help us build our own Aircraft Carriers too. Things that were impossible before are falling into place now.

Our durable all-weather military cooperation with the former USSR and now Russia will continue,  but hopefully involve more and more domestic manufacture cooperation. It is becoming increasingly obvious that the ‘Make in India’ initiative has some of its biggest investment potentials coming into the Defence manufacturing and Nuclear Power generation sectors.

But, many other areas, automobiles and their components, solar power, electronics, infrastructure development by way of roads, ports, airports, the Indian Railways, the smart cities, housing for the poor, etc., will all be enormously big ticket too.

It is not for nothing that India is on its way to being the fastest growing economy in the world, headed for annual double- digit growth, within Modi’s first five year term in office, with a massive domestic appetite to boot!

The low oil prices will continue to help. Our international sovereign and credit-ratings are rising, albeit with many ifs and buts, mainly to do with our fiscal deficits, but nobody seems to be threatening a downgrade any more. The industrial output in February 2015 grew by 5% too, the best  showing in three months, and may be signalling the beginning of a revival.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is able to pull off breakthroughs from the bureaucratic maze that stymies most Indian good intentions, because he already has a winning foreign-policy formula. It is quite his own, though perhaps influenced by Asian doers, like the recently departed Lee Kwan Yew, whose state funeral Modi made sure he attended.

In Modi’s foreign policy, there is great energy, a clear commercial intent, a bold strategic dimension, and a deeper sense of engagement than ever witnessed in the past.  And it is ambitious. It seeks to  transact with the whole world, no less.

It is simultaneously look East, look West, look at West Asia, SAARC, the Indian Ocean littoral, the 

South China Sea, the US,  China, Japan, Australia, Fiji, Myanmar, Singapore, the UK, Brazil and so on. Soon, no doubt, Africa will enter the scheme of things like never before.  Modi is the first Indian Prime Minister going to Canada, which hosts a large Indian diaspora, after forty two years! Later this month, Modi also goes to China, on his return visit to President Xi Jinping, with the whispers suggesting that the LAC could become the border as an outcome.

The list of foreign visits made by Modi and External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj, since coming to power in May 2014, is breathtakingly long and impressive. And the economic gains, much beyond the ramped-up visibility on the world stage, the heady investment pledges, will now begin to accumulate, just short of a year into the five year term.

The recent smooth evacuation of Indians, along with those from a host of developed countries, from Yemen, suggests a subtle shift in stature. We are being both included and trusted by many major world powers, without the exasperated rolling of the eyes in private. After all, we are getting demonstrably good at it, with the earlier Iraq evacuation also under our belt.

Modi developed his foreign-policy formula in personal adversity. He was shunned by a Centre that practiced a kind of apartheid designed specifically for him as Chief Minister of Gujarat. But he has had his advantages too, working in an already prosperous state, with ingenious, business-minded people.

This, all the while, that the abidingly vindictive Congress- led Central Government did its best to denigrate and distress the Modi image, both nationally and internationally.  And, UPA succeeded in getting some leading Western countries to more or less boycott Modi-led Gujarat.

The situation however, has dramatically changed, with Forbes magazine ranking Modi as the 5^th most powerful leader in the world. What is now being called the ‘Modi Doctrine’, worked in fledgling form  in Gujarat, and is therefore a tried and tested thing. There, as a three- term CM, he made friends with Japan and China, and got them to invest.

Gujarat gradually developed a reputation for serviceable infrastructure, necessary land, competent, peaceable labour, and a responsive government that welcomed manufacturers. And one that did everything to help them get on with the job, without the Indian penchant for holding them to ransom. So others, both domestic and foreign in origin, flocked to the state to set up their industry.

This virtuous cycle is now sought to be replicated nationally, with Modi’s substantial drive to make it happen. He also wants the States competing with each other, to garner the additional investment and resultant jobs.

As an example of things to come, let us remember Modi, mercantile as ever, also started the Vibrant Gujarat Summits, grown ever more popular every year, and graced on average, not just by business barons, but by kings and heads of state. These have not always yielded the rich harvests that the number of signed MOU’s might suggest. This has been gleefully pointed out by critics, but they undeniably raised the profile of Gujarat, and got more business done than almost any other. Relativity is indeed the opposite number of Absolutism, infuriating as its persuasions might be to the envious.

So much so, that the Summits are now aped by every ambitious part of the Indian Union. Other States, unnerved by the success and fame of the much vaunted ‘Gujarat Model’, have also sallied forth with their own versions. While some do have notable merit and achievements to point out, others are just jealous caricatures, led by the brazen fantasists that run Bihar and West Bengal. Bihar of course, cites its impressive growth statistics, in Gujarat-like double-digits, but calculated upon, and from, a dismally low base!

Modi knows the efficacy of his formula though. And it is time for the naysayers to reboot their thinking and look forward to the prospect of a strong and prosperous India, where his leading slogan “Sabka Saath Sabka Vikas”, ends up meaning much more, not less, than it implies.

For: Swarajyamag  

(1, 442 words)

April 11^th, 2015

Gautam Mukherjee