Accountability...

Accountability…


We are being told now that actionable and reasonably precise intelligence on the recent Mumbai terror attacks came from various sources, for up to a month before the outrage. This suggests not only that the Indian state is soft but also that it is compromised, perhaps deliberately so, and suffers from lack of accountability. But the shortcomings of the Indians are like a Teddy Bear’s Picnic compared to the rogue accomplishments of Pakistan and the global threat it poses.

Yes, India was tipped off about the impending attacks by the US government, the state government of Gujarat, the Gujarat and Mumbai based Fishermen’s Associations, and home-grown intelligence agencies RAW and IB. And the information from the US specified some of the targets, the identity and origin of the attackers, their sea-borne method of entry, coordinates of their ship, and even the date of the expected attack.

Everyone knew in advance--the Government of India, the Maharashtra Government, the attacked hotels, the Indian Navy and Coast Guard, the State Police and its Anti-terror Squad.

But not only did they nobody act, but several precautionary security measures set up in response to the warnings were withdrawn a day or two before the attacks actually came. Inferential conjectures point towards a local and highly efficient fifth column, with reach in high places. It has the signature style of the Mumbai underworld, long rumoured to be hand in glove with certain influential Mumbai politicians. It is this same shadowy force that appears to have organised the detailed and professional reconnaissance. They also obtained route maps, detailed floor plans of the hotels, helped to cache the arms, ammunition, grenades, rocket launchers, RDX, obtain fake identification, real cash and credit cards.

This will be difficult to prove, despite the best efforts of not only the Indians, but also the American FBI, the British Scotland Yard and Shin Bet from Israel, all working on the case now. But, much valuable intelligence is often a matter of inference, and Pakistan knows it won’t stand up in a court of law.

And so India, even after gathering high quality intelligence from the sole terrorist taken alive, is getting nowhere in its efforts to bring the perpetrators to justice. Pakistan has shrugged off reports of the POK-based Lashkar-i-Tayeba being responsible, despite its established links to Al Quaeda and the Taliban. They can’t see how this makes the State of Pakistan culpable in any way.

It has trotted out its time-tested alibi of plausible deniability, but this time with a Jeffrey Archerish twist in the tail. Pakistan has threatened to move 100,000 of its troops to the Eastern border with India if pressed too hard, moving them from the Islamic militant infested Afghanistan border!

But then, why should India be surprised? After all, Pakistan has had this device of plausible deniability in place since 1946. It was then that their provisional government put in Army regulars in tribal-style Pathan Suits to occupy half of Kashmir.

They did it again, during General Pervez Musharraf’s misadventure in Kargil. Once again, India found itself killing Pakistan Army regulars in battle, but wearing Mujahideen disguises. What these Mujahideen were doing this time with Pakistan Army identity papers on them, is just another matter of inconvenient detail.

Pakistan has already fought three unsuccessful conventional wars with India, the last being over Kargil, before switching track very sharply towards the war “of a thousand cuts”. This same surreptitious technique has also served Pakistan well in its efforts to pressurise the West, right from the days when it was inducted by America to train and support the Afghan Mujahideen that successfully sent the Soviets packing.

Over the last decade however, Pakistan has gone into wholesale business for itself and emerged as the world’s most successful terror factory, recently characterised as an “international migraine” by former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright. Pakistan is now a past-master at using proxies, irregulars and disguised armed forces to effect governmental distance and plausible deniability. They are also very good at brazening it out under diplomatic pressure as demonstrated after 9/11, extracting more money and arms from America, even as it kept its terror network intact.

President Musharraf, a consummate ex-commando, adopted a raft of techniques that included consorting with offshore radical Islamic and criminal groups, aiding the radicalisation of Muslim youth globally and the creation of sleeper cells. He also successfully internationalised the demographics, so that Pakistani nationals are not the only ones who turn up in the terror-net worldwide.

Pakistan now hosts a veritable Jehadi International, that includes ethnic Pakistani-British, Talibanised Afghans, Chechens, Pakistan’s lawless NWFP denizens, Bangladeshis- both free-lancers and the official collaborators, malcontents from Kashmir, from India’s North East, turned Muslims from other parts of India, those from Sudan, Somalia, Indonesia, Malaysia, even Muslim insurgents from China. And let us not forget Pakistan continues to host Osama Bin Laden.

To strengthen the doctrine of plausible deniability further, the Pakistan Government also collaborates with the international “Bhai” network. This underworld connection has worked to fund terrorism and insurgency with proceeds from forgery, currency counterfeiting, money-laundering, extortion, intimidation, blackmail, drug-running, prostitution and smuggling.

Other proven State run techniques include proliferation of nuclear and missile technology. This self-help laundry list complements the shameless cap-in-hand forays to the oil rich Gulf and the over-the-barrel West. The latter are also persuaded to supply arms to “fight” the very terrorism that Pakistan has turned into its most effective international calling card.

But the global worry today is not how well Pakistan has been playing the Artful Dodger, or how effectively it runs circles around a weak Indian government, but the very real threat that the radical Islamists, once ready to do the Pakistan Army and ISI’s bidding, are poised to swallow up the State itself, and seize its nuclear arsenal. One might even see a concordat emerge between the radicals and the Pakistani establishment as hinted at by Pakistan Army Chief Kiyani.

That would end Pakistan’s era of plausible deniability, but the world would then be looking at a Talibanised nuclear power. This then, is the nightmare rogue state with the very real WMD threat. The window of opportunity to stop this inevitability has to begin with neutralising Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. Otherwise, the very definition of international diplomacy and accountability may have to be rewritten.


(1,051 words)

December 3rd, 2008
Gautam Mukherjee

Published in The Pioneer on December 8th,2008 as "It's Pakistan silly!" and online at www.dailypioneer.com where it is also archived under Columnists.