Independent Mobile Republic

Independent Mobile Republic


David Loyn, esteemed BBC correspondent, wrote a well received book called Butcher and Bolt in 2008. It is on 200 years of failed “foreign engagement” with Afghanistan.

The intriguing title refers to the unofficial British Raj policy conclusion, arrived at after several bloody tangles with the Afghans, that they were just too violent and rebellious for Afganistan to be occupied. The Raj description of the indomitable Afghan tribesmen echoes Writer and Activist Arundati Roy’s colourful description of herself as an “Independent Mobile Republic” in one of her high decibel essays from 2003.

The trouble, as the British found out, and the Pakistanis are learning, is that the Afghan is not easy to properly corrupt, “civilise” or finally subdue. He will take your gold if it is on offer, and your guns too, for that matter, and even politely give you a hearing. But any treaty, pact or understanding he agrees to is not binding by dint of his temperament. The Afghan owes his allegiance strictly to himself and at a pinch, and temporarily, and only for tactical reasons, to some of his tribal compatriots. He is probably Jean Jacques Rousseau’s quintessential “noble savage” in the flesh.

Accordingly, the imperial Raj eventually preferred to foray into Afghanistan for a quick incursion, give the Afghans a sharp taste of British tactical warfare, and dash back to British India. Ironically, the latest version of President Obama’s AfPak Policy seems to suggest a similar strategy, couched in much oratory, with the announcement of a surge juxtaposed with a phased withdrawal come 2011.

As for aerial bombardment, so spectacularly effective in reducing rubble to rubble in the first flush of Dubya’s wrath in 2001, it is difficult to bomb populous Karachi into dust.

Because, it is there, and in Rawalpindi, and Islamabad, that much of the Taliban/Al Qaeda leadership, plagued by those unmanned drones in forward areas, have moved to. Besides, it is getting very difficult, as in the days of the Vietnamese and the Vietcong, to recognise which is which amongst the “mobile republic” citizenry of AfPak.

Mr. Obama has sonorously warned Pakistan not to use their infamous non-state actors to advance their policy objectives. But are they truly non-state or just “irregulars” in the first place, given former President Musharraf’s proud claim of Pakistani Army and ISI “ingress” into all terrorist organisations in AfPak?

But irrespective of the sophistication, audacity and durability of such linkages, as long as Pakistan can keep American/Chinese largesse flowing by playing on their separate needs and wants, they are not in any urgent need to comply with any one benefactor’s wishes beyond a point. As a result, President Obama may have finally recognised the need to leverage China for greater effectiveness of his Pakistan Policy.

From the Pakistani point of view, terrorism and its AfPak epicentre has proved to be a veritable golden goose that it would be foolish to throttle. This despite the brinkmanship in diplomacy it entails along with the growing threat to its own cohesiveness and nuclear assets.

David Loyn writes confrontation is futile in Butcher and Bolt. He advocates negotiation with the Taliban. He points out the historical failure of occupation. He does not think much has materially changed, despite awesome employment of technology in the latest US led version. A little bleakly, Loyn points out that the Taliban, has a ready resource of over one and a half million new recruits being indoctrinated in Saudi Arabia financed madrasas in Pakistan.

Of course, the West intends to train opposed Afghans to look after themselves. This will mean the arming, training and financial sustenance of anti-Taliban militia and an induced civil war fuelled by the formation of a new pipeline of gold for all concerned.

But in any case the West is tired of Afghanistan and decidedly weary of the fight. The British, Germans and French have not even committed additional troops. The policy of confrontation and playing one side against the other without taking into account that they may well be meeting in the middle has conclusively failed. The Taliban/Al Qaeda and other comrades in arms are simply waiting for them to leave.

So what is next in the coming decade? Call it the responsibility that goes with emerging as the fastest growing economies in the world with a thirst for global recognition and greater influence. The new guardians of the Afghanistan-Pakistan theatre in the medium term will be India and China, large regional powers conjoined at the geographic hip.

Both China and India are themselves buffeted by internal security issues. India, as a democracy with a thriving fourth estate more so, and China, a totalitarian state with its robust forward policy on any manifestation of internal dissent, less so. But it is clearly recognised by the US that China can do much to rein in the Pakistani predilection to run with the hares and hunt with the hounds.

Without China’s provocative material support, Pakistan will be forced to curb its international terrorist based adventurism. It will also have to cut back on its regional strategic policy objectives including the infamous doctrine of “force multiplication” via a Talibanised Afghanistan.

China, on its part will have to rein in its own hegemon’s harassment of India both directly and via Pakistan. And the US will play umpire and underwrite China’s good behaviour even as India will have to considerably beef up its own self-helping military muscle.

India's role will be in the stabilisation of Afghanistan. It is well regarded there to Pakistan’s great chagrin. But India has gained from having resisted military involvement in favour of rebuilding the country’s infrastructure. India will be required to continue on this path and stay the course as America and its Western allies pull out.

And without a doubt there will be numerous carrots for both India and China on easier terms as a result. These will include more say in the World Bank and the IMF, in the G-8 and the G 20, in the WTO and Climate Control fora, and for India, almost certain enrolment in the Security Council.

The US and its NATO allies will indeed butcher and bolt. It is the new order of things for the next decade that will have to fill up the vacuum, manage things in their own backyard and bring order and prosperity to it.

(1,054 words)

December 4th, 2009
Gautam Mukherjee