Opportunity in search of a supreme leader
With the unexpected unravelling and loss of authority of the UPA quite early into its second term in office, an opportunity for the Opposition led NDA exists in 2014, or possibly as early as next year, if the parliamentary logjam persists.
The UPA could be forced to throw in the towel and call for general elections in the face of its mounting inability to govern, particularly in the forthcoming budget session. It is not inconceivable today that there could well be a no-confidence vote from the combined Opposition aided by a sizeable breakaway faction of the ruling combine, as early as the first half of next year.
The Government, on its part, seems confused about how to resolve its problems and persists in trying to drive a wedge between members of the Opposition, while simultaneously exerting considerable pressure on certain of its nominal allies to keep them threatened, involuntarily subdued, and functionally cooperative.
Despite a steady clamour both from the media and the combined Opposition, the UPA Government has done little to clean up its proverbial Augean stables, bedevilled as it is with more scams and evidence of maladministration than has been seen all-at-once in the history of independent India.
Of course, the UPA’s situation is further complicated by the ironic fact that their own designated and dynastic heir apparent is unable to graduate from his long-winded apprenticeship in the political arena. Nor is the young champion of the idea of the aam aadmi able to garner the votes on the strength of his charisma. Or implement his strategies as chief rejuvenator of his party for that matter. And neither is the Government able to bring succour to that very ordinary citizen with spiralling food prices and inflation pressing down on him without respite.
But to mirror the UPA’s hobbled situation for other, pedestrian reasons of power politics in the NDA, is hardly a recipe for success! To be a proper and credible alternative, the Opposition must project a much greater strategic cohesiveness that it does at present, particularly within the upper echelons of the BJP and its ideological backdrop, the RSS.
A clear sticking point for the Opposition combine, even in its four-party residual strength today, is the lack of a clear prime-ministerial candidate from within the BJP or the NDA. And this, quite apart from the urgent need to beef itself up, to use an unorthodox simile, by bringing back lost and new allies into the fold, so that its electoral heft is sufficient to actually capture power.
The situation is so glaring that various spokespersons of the UPA continually smirk at this Opposition disarray and blatantly count on the NDA’s internal power struggles and lack of clear-cut leadership to perpetuate its own hold on power, however undeserved; not only for the rest of this beleaguered term, but beyond 2014 too.
In a country saddled with such horrific bad governance, the deep rot of corruption, and lack of accountability, the people may yet be presented with no more than a Hobson’s choice. The UPA are, not surprisingly, counting on this to weather every storm.
Meanwhile back in the NDA, there are several possible prime-ministerial contenders, theoretically speaking, from generation next, such as the electorally popular Mr.Nitish Kumar and Mr.Narendra Modi, who may however prefer to continue in their states where they are doing an excellent job. They may well prefer the certainties of experienced state administration with their comfortable majorities, rather than facing the head-winds of coalition government at the centre.
There are others, more “staff” men and women than “line”, as the distinction goes in management circles; such as the feisty Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, Ms. Sushma Swaraj, the urbane and polished Leader of the Opposition in the Rajya Sabha Mr. Arun Jaitley, and leading light from the South Mr. Venkiah Naidu.
They are all well known nationally and used to projecting the overall concerns of the NDA. And then, of course, there is party elder and pater familias Mr.LK Advani and several others from his generation, most notably, Mr. Murli Manohar Joshi.
There are more accomplished state level satraps like Mr. Shivraj Singh Chauhan from Madhya Pradesh, and erudite and capable people of prime ministerial calibre, with perhaps lesser electoral or administrative credentials, including several who have occupied senior ministerial berths during Prime Minister AB Vajpayee’s terms in office as well as professional people associated with the NDA as MPs and advisers, in addition.
Having said all this, BJP Party President Mr, Nitin Gadkari, party elder Mr. LK Advani as well as RSS chief Mr. Mohan Bhagwat, must collectively acknowledge that the public deserves to have some idea of who will lead the NDA at the centre, should the opportunity arise. The public that votes for the leading Opposition combine, already significantly placed in the states, deserves to think there is a good chance of victory with everyone working together for such an objective rather than undermining the overall effort for byzantine reasons.
I say byzantine, because it has been difficult to pinpoint responsibility after the losses suffered by the NDA in the last general election, even as the general public was treated to the spectacle of disunity, veiled criticism and innuendo that is not exactly inspiring.
The other matter is the need to enunciate a more inclusive right-of-centre agenda for governance rather than the bare-faced championing of majoritarian positions in a crude and unsettling manner for people from other communities. Such people, as also those from the majority community with a more pronounced secular bias, who may not be enamoured of the UPA after all that has happened, but certainly do not want to associate with a combine branded “communal” without seeming to demur.
The existing constituents of the NDA including the crucial JDU from Bihar are discomfited by blatant majoritarian posturing bearing in mind the mixed electorate they have to deal with. And modifying the ideological stance will give the NDA much greater political acceptability amongst those who want to break away from the UPA.
The trouble is, all this has long been known, but just as the UPA can’t seem to control corruption or resist the temptation to cynically pander to the minorities, the NDA seems wedded to a certain rigidity of position on core issues that ends up being exclusive rather than welcoming.
(1,055 words)
23rd December 2010
Gautam Mukherjee
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