Hand that Wags on the Tail's Instructions

Hand that Wags on the Tail’s Instructions

Mr. Lal Krishna Advani has set a cat among the pigeons with his unambiguous blog.  The only question is, what is the BJP veteran and strategist hoping to precipitate as a result of his observations? 

Let us frame the cause in the context of a man who may be an elder statesman now, but nevertheless one who is very active as the working Chairperson of the NDA. And one, who along with Mr. Atal Bihari Vajpayee, took the BJP all the way from two seats in the Lok Sabha to a full term and a few days in power at the Centre. Managing at the same time  a large and complicated NDA then.

As for effects: the leaders of both the UPA and the NDA are squirming. Both regard their chances at the hustings warily in 2014. Mr. Advani even wrote that the Congress Party can’t expect their own seat tally to exceed double digits. He has written what insiders in the UPA are thinking privately, and he even referred to discussions with some unnamed Union Ministers. All of it implies a leadership vacuum. Only then can the tail be considered as more substantial than the dog.

That he tarred his own NDA formation with the same brush has got quite a few of the notable pigeons in his own rafters flapping their wings. Leader of the Opposition in the Rajya Sabha and Advani protégé Mr. Jaitley has given his logic, most persuasive as usual, and NDA convenor Mr. Sharad Yadav has made bold to contradict Mr. Advani. They may both be a tad defensive but it is better to evolve a consensus now rather than rue the day tomorrow.

And this without the proverbial cat, who could be a certain Mr. Narendra Modi, making an entrance as yet.

We shall have to wait for that till after the Gujarat Assembly elections are demonstrably fought and won. But, in the meantime, is Mr. Advani saying Mr. Rahul Gandhi and friends in the UPA can’t deliver? If he is, he is merely reiterating the obvious.

Meanwhile, all the prime ministerial aspirants in the NDA, enough of them to fill a bus, are probably not too amused. But they should reflect on their own vote-catching abilities nationally in order to temper their ambition.

On the other side of the aisle, certainly several of the supporting or constituent regional parties of the UPA, such as the Trinamool Congress are restive. TMC is paranoid about the CPM in Paschimbanga regaining lost ground, who knows, even in collusion with the Congress Party. It will pull out to suit itself, and join the formation that furthers its own cause post-elections. The Left however, because of its ideology, will stick to the Congress coat-tails.

And allying for a further two years with a Government adrift and helpless as the Manmohan Singh Government, is not doing very much for TMC’s own political stock. Mamata Banerjee’s West Bengal is bankrupt, and the Centre is not delivering any rescue packages, not even a tiny little token one.

Similarly, the flirtation and the minutely calibrated luncheon diplomacy with the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party at the Centre notwithstanding, it is State political compulsions in Uttar Pradesh that are going to decide their course of action. Ditto for the DMK in Tamil Nadu, smarting from its drubbing at the hands of arch rival AIADMK, as well as bruised and battered by the 2G Scam. Who will go with whom post-elections remains to be seen, but AIADMK may have chosen already.

The NDA is also embarrassed by its Chairperson’s observations, not only because one of its tallest leaders is obliquely asking for some firm leadership before it is too late. But also because the plausibility of what he has blogged cuts quite close to the bone.

The formation in 2014 could indeed be with a smallish regional party satrap as PM. It could even be Mr. Rahul Gandhi’s buddy and fellow political inheritor J & K Chief Minister, Omar Abdullah, miniscule as his National Conference Party’s national presence may be.

Besides, we cannot rule out bariatric surgery recovered National Party President of the BJP Mr. Nitin Gadkari as a dark horse. Albeit, he is politically untried at the Electronic Voting Machine and this could get in his way. Or a rustic strong man like Uttar Pradesh’s Mr. Mulayam Singh Yadav, or Bihar’s Mr. Nitish Kumar, both of whom would like very much to be Prime Minister.

There could be an articulate sophisticate like Mr. Naveen Patnaik of Odisha or Ms. J Jayalalithaa from Tamil Nadu trading places with Manmohan Singh. This particularly with a view to charm foreign Governments and investors. Though that kind of thing never hampered Deng or Mao or Stalin. Or Nikita Khrushchev and his shoe, nor KGB- bred strongman Vladimir Putin.  

And minority Governments have been formed many times before. Remember Mr. Chandra Shekhar or Chaudhary Charan Singh? And, with variations on the theme, the IK Gujral or VP Singh Governments? Short lived these “outside supported” entities tend to be, but even a few months in the primus inter pares formation does wonders for the regional party coffers and assuages the thirst for power. The regionals may have reached Union Cabinet status now and then, and certainly the brass ring of State Government formation several times, but not yet, and possibly never, the PM’s gaddi.

They probably feel if “humble farmer” HD Deve Gowda from Karnataka could do it why not me, meaning the head of every regional party with some seats in the Lok Sabha. It could be a consensus of the weak. And that kind of thing rarely has the luxury of dotting all the I’s and crossing all the T’s.

But the key point of Mr. Advani’s initiative could well be to facilitate the entry of Mr. Narendra Modi at the head of the NDA as the strongest candidate with enough proven administrative ability and stature. Mr. Modi will secure all the votes that could come to the BJP, leaving the other constituents to pick up their own decks. This may well take its collective tally somewhat higher than it is today and prove to be decisive when it comes to Government formation after all.

As for the bogey of polarisation for Mr. Modi’s perceived anti-minority bias, just think of his recent interview in Nai Duniya with Editor Shahid Siddiqui, thrown out of SP for his audacity, and shun the idea of rule by rump or tail for your answer. India deserves some good governance and Mr. Modi can provide it.

(1,098 words)

August 7^th, 2012

Gautam Mukherjee

Published as Leader on Edit Page of The Pioneer on 09 August 2012 as "If tail wags the dog, governance suffers". Also online at www.dailypioneer.com where it is also archived under "Columnists".