The Convoy Turns Right
Every successive
Opinion Poll gives a higher tally to BJP and the current NDA, and significantly
less to the Congress and the remnants of the UPA. This is making the Congress
ever more hysterical and foul-mouthed, at the prospect of being shown the door.
The desperation
reminds one of Saddam Hussein’s one time propagandist/spokesman, dubbed ‘Chemical
Ali’ by the international press. The late great ‘Ali’ would appear nightly on
CNN to deliver fervent, if fictional, briefings on Saddam’s triumphs in the
First Gulf War. He used soaring hyperbole and gaudy hagiography on the
achievements of Saddam Hussein’s side of
the war, even as the Americans and their ‘Allies’ bombed Iraq into rubble. His
nickname however came from his previous role in gassing Kurdish rebels to
death.
The most recent
Poll, and there are several more in the works in the remaining days, gives 216
seats to BJP and 236 to the NDA, a number that is within striking distance of
the half-way mark of 272.
Congress, its
spokespersons and adherents may pour scorn on the efficacy of Opinion Polls,
but even if they are broadly on target, it indicates that the electorate itself
may have turned Right. The masses of Left-Liberal intelligentsia has not quite
caught on to this radical mood shift amongst the people. This is when the
country redefines Secularism into its level playing field avatar, and dumps
Socialism too while it is about it.
The old Commentariat may well be in denial
about all this, and that is why it is still treating and parlaying in what has
become an obsolete idiom. Perhaps they all agree with Rahul Gandhi that the
electorate is firmly behind the Congress headed for a UPA III, his analogy of
hot air balloons, failed past Opinion Polls in 2004 and 2009 et al. Chemical
Ali is reincarnated, but not in his jaunty black beret and fatigues.
Also, such
thinkers must be worried about their own places in a dispensation that does not
believe in Congress politics or economics, or indeed in its date-expired idea
of India. Meanwhile, the Indian Mujahideen
threatens to bomb the girls of
Welham’s School in Dehradoon.
Regardless,
these worthies criticise and wonder at noted activist, academic and writer
Madhu Kishwar, for moving into promoting Modi’s ‘even-playing field’ for all cause, and
‘development first’ vision. Maybe
Kishwar has realised, as they have not, at least as yet, that the young voting
public is not listening to Congress any more. It does not believe, perhaps even
finds it demeaning, to be at the receiving end of doles and giveaways. And
maybe they have seen through the preposterous habit of naming every massive public welfare programme,
every arterial road and public institution, after one or the other member of
the Gandhi dynasty, as if they were using their own money instead of the tax
payers’!
It is ironic
that this is the situation, because Congress managed to trash the BJP’s “India
Shining” campaign 10 years ago precisely
by portraying it, quite unfairly, as non-inclusive growth. But today, we have a
ship-wrecked economy, minimal growth, and very few new jobs. The doles are paid
for with frightening deficits, and designed, primarily to induce the poor into
voting for the Congress. Many reports say the intended recipients have not
received the welfare money. That there are wholesale fictitious disbursements
and fudged official records kept by middle-men who have managed, with political
patronage, to enrich themselves instead.
If this poll
trend keeps up, the cynical Congress plan of propping up a Third Front
Government too is doomed, particularly if the NDA stitches together a number
closer to 300. And the country can truly look forward to a stretch of
stability, decisive governance and prosperity in line with the anticipation of the
stock market, the money market, and several learned observers from both home
and abroad.
But Congress,
losing hope of leading any post poll coalition, is totally preoccupied with
preventing a Modi-led Government. The polls are giving it between 75 and 91
seats at present, precipitously down from 206 in 2009. Still it is determined
to keep power by the back door if possible, while portraying its blatant
skulduggery as inclusive politics in the service of the nation.
Of course, the
arithmetic must favour it. And then it must somehow persuade enough regional
parties and independents etc. to cobble together a third or alternate formation.
This won’t be easy, given the rampant egos, massive ambitions and intractable
internal rivalries it will have to deal with. Nevertheless, Congress is wooing
the Left already. It wants to recreate the political scenario of 1996 in 2014,
says the media, irrespective of the harm it will do to the economy and in utter
disregard of the real will of the people.
However, if
these projected numbers do hold up or better themselves, there will simply not
be enough coalition-minded MPs to make up 272 for a Third Front circus. Which
outcome is to be fervently hoped for, because a hodge-podge of political parties
thrust upon the public by an unscrupulous and unprincipled bazaar bartering
process will only create instability and stymie governance.
Congress does not seem to care what effect
such chicanery and political spoiling the pitch will have on the country, its
image, and its economy. It knows a strong BJP/NDA Government could put paid to
its return for at least the next two terms, and probably result in its disintegration
in the interim. In a sense therefore the mood in the Congress is funereal, and
concerned with its very survival.
The welfare
juggernaut however is going for broke. The Congress manifesto, dubbed a
‘deceitful’ document by the BJP, is another weighty bushel of socialist
promises and rights legislation, planned on everything short of the right to
breathe. It has however had no impact,
because of negligible implementation in the past of many fine sounding laws. And then there is the avalanche of corruption
under its watch. Governance too has been marked by policy paralysis throughout.
The B JP
manifesto promises jobs for the masses, taxation relief for the middle classes,
and infrastructure development, water, electricity, education, health
facilities, for all. Through all the noise and bluster of the electioneering,
it feels credible when the B JP promises
things. It is easy to believe the development rhetoric of a man who has
delivered 12% growth for a decade or more in Gujarat. Perhaps this then is how
an era draws to a close, brought to its knees by its own incompetence. Not with
a bang, as TS Eliot, the great modern poet had it, but with a whimper.
(1,101 words)
April 1st, 2014
Gautam Mukherjee
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