A
Waltzing Matilda Moment
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to
Myanmar for the ASEAN Summit and the East Asia Summits starting November 11th will be over-shadowed
by China as the dominant presence. This even as Modi enjoys the newly minted charisma of a hugely
successful politician that has entered the Forbes’ Most Powerful List at an impressive No. 15.
But then, President Obama, crisscrossing
the region after attending the APEC meet in Beijing, before going on to Myanmar,
and then to Australia, cannot expect to
be the main draw either. Particularly after losing control of both the Senate
and the House of Representatives to the Republicans in recent mid-term Congressional
polls; and heading into the lame-duck tunnel of his final two years on the job.
As for the bilateral yield from Myanmar for
India, it is best to calculate that it will take time to make a dent where
China has been munificent. It is also entrenched as a bilateral partner for several
years now. China, on its part, wants to marshal and emcee closer links between
India and Myanmar too. Except that it needs it to be a three-way split of
influence and benefit - with China having a controlling interest. The revival
of the old WW II Stilwell Road and other trade routes linking Myanmar,
Bangladesh and India with China, is seen by President Xi Jinping, rather
poetically, as ‘the new silk route’.
In fora like ASEAN, APEC, East Asia, India
is a late entrant and weak investment or grant prospect when compared to the
bulging moneybags and military heft of China. So it can only expect small and
incremental gains at first.
The most substantial results from Prime
Minister Narendra Modi’s forthcoming November visits are definitely expected
from Australia.
Both countries are eager to ramp up
bilateral economic cooperation. This
even as Modi goes to Australia to attend the 9th Heads of Government
Summit of G-20 on November 15th. There will, in addition, no doubt
be multiple meetings with fellow leaders on the side lines of the multilateral
summits in Myanmar and Brisbane. Plus other useful encounters with businessmen,
scientists and thought-leaders as is Modi’s wont.
Nothing much happened when former Prime
Minister Rajiv Gandhi visited Australia 28 years ago. That, it has taken so
long for another Indian Prime Minister to visit, is telling of the vacuum in
perceived common interests. But this time it is going to be very different. The
axis of the whole world is in process of developing an economic tilt towards
India, where major and unprecedented, across-the-board growth, is imminent.
Europe, an economically troubled America
and Japan, and a slowing, greying, China, all recognise that the abundant new
opportunity is in India. Australia, under Prime Minister Tony Abbot is clearly
enthusiastic about it. And India, has much it can learn from the Australia,
particularly in the area of modern and ‘green’ mining.
Modi has a red carpet ride in store. He
will attend the G-20 Summit at Brisbane, followed by his address to the Australian
Parliament in Canberra. He will also visit the legendary Melbourne Cricket
Grounds in Prime Minister Abbot’s company, and grace another Madison Garden
Style rally at Sydney’s Olympic Park for
the Indian-Australian diaspora.
Abbott came to India himself recently and
unequivocally agreed to sell India the strategic resource of uranium on favoured-nation
terms. This, after much prevarication by previous Australian regimes, even while selling vast quantities of the
nuclear raw material to China.
Obama may well want to check on the loyalty
card held by Australia with regard to President Putin of Russia, an implied
obligation under the ANZACS umbrella perhaps, but this is clearly not the main
game in the casino for many of the participants from the Asia-Pacific region.
On the way back, Narendra Modi will stop in
Fiji, another island nation with many ethnic Indians, even as it functions
practically as a protectorate of Australia. To forge stronger bilateral ties
with Fiji also contributes towards anchoring India firmly in a multilateral
cooperation with Japan, Australia and Vietnam.
This, even as India simultaneously partners
China in another, parallel coalition, and quest to make the 21st century
an undeniable Asian phenomenon.
What then of the two Koreas, Malaysia,
Indonesia, Thailand, Brunei, etc., even the Pitcairn Islands? Like SAARC, and
those others close by, such as mineral-rich Afghanistan, and some others in
West Asia like Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Oman, the UAE and Kuwait- a historic
realignment of diplomatic and economic cooperation is very much in the offing.
With an economically weakened America and
Western Europe, with no quick recovery possible, being part of the Western bloc
is losing traction. Under the circumstances, it may even be high-time Pakistan
changed tack, taking a cue from the mentoring Chinese; and before it loses all
regional relevance, except, of course,
for its nuisance value.
(803
words)
November
6, 2014
Gautam
Mukherjee
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