Congress Crying Time

 Congress Crying Time

The NDTV commissioned Opinion Poll gives the NDA 259 seats with 53 out of 80 in Uttar Pradesh. This total is without counting seats via the TDP Alliance  just announced today on BJP's Foundation Day. And the B JP/NDA is seen to be getting votes from urban and rural people alike across the length and breadth of the country. In fact the rural vote share is trending upwards!

The Congress must be baffled how all that welfare spend has made no impact on its fortunes with the poor. Every usual stratagem and time-tested device of theirs is failing in a face of an overwhelming rejection by the people, and they have no new ideas to stem the rot.

So their dirty tricks department has gone into overdrive to raise old bogeys, but alas, once again without success.  Alleged Congress sponsored slurs and resurrections are coming thick and fast. It must be terrified of an en masse abandonment by its Muslim vote-bank in particular. So it arranged for Sonia Gandhi to beg the Shahi Imam of the Jama Masjid, the largely discredited Ahmed Bukhari, who seems to favour different political parties at different times. He has even been dubbed ‘Bhikari’ in the social media for reasons best known to them beyond the strength of the pun.

In addition, Cobrapost, a spin-off from Tehelka.com, both regarded as well known agents of the Congress Party, came up with an old hat sting, swiftly rejected by the CBI as ‘nothing new’. It alleges current B JP leaders LK Advani, Uma Bharati, and Kalyan Singh who was then Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh and even the late Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao were in the know about the Babri Masjid demolition and variously aided and abetted it.

This whole matter has of course been very thoroughly investigated by the authorities over more than two decades, and the conclusion was that it was a spontaneous action by some of the lakhs of Kar Sevaks who had gathered there at Ayodhya, nothing less, nothing more.

The Babri Masjid story has been resurrected now because the caterwauling about the Godhra Riots to malign Narendra Modi has been effectively countered both by the Supreme Court supervised SIT, and by the spontaneous resurrection of the Congress engineered Anti-Sikh Pogrom of 1984 and the desecration of Operation Bluestar that preceded it. This came from various aggrieved people including the Sikh diaspora, who have not received either justice or closure over the last thirty years.

Congress must be hoping against hope that Bukhari’s bare faced interference in matters political will agitate the Muslims in Uttar Pradesh in its favour, where it is otherwise facing a rout. Incidentally, the media and various commentators talks often of decimation, but that Roman technique only refers to the destruction of every tenth person literally, thereby leaving 90% intact, a fate not likely to favor Congress this time.

The Cobrapost claim on the destruction of the Babri Masjid, based on mere remembered reflections of old Kar Sevaks in the Ayodhya area, accuse the BJP leaders of a planned involvement in 1992. However, this diabolically timed damp squib seems to have done absolutely nothing to help the Congress. The Muslim target audience is both angry and disillusioned by Congress serial betrayal of their aspirations over decades of rule, and refuses to be provoked by such attempts.

The other bit of scurrilous defamation comes from still surviving but dwindling fast British newsmagazine, The Economist, which attempts self-importance by writing an arrogant opinion piece damning Narendra Modi’s character. Many Congress people try it every day to no avail and the out-of-date British magazine should have known better. Besides, the British today enjoy negligible influence in India though we like to be polite about it and readily adopt those amongst their number who demonstrate a special love for this country. But the hard-up Economist   appears to have succumbed to a Congress funded lateral PR effort by damning Narendra Modi with faint praise and facile, convent- school logic. Apart from expressed surprise at the unsolicited poison-pen advice from the magazine, the b road-spectrum intelligentsia has largely ignored the piece, as it does occasional efforts along the same lines by the arch-leftist New York Times and The Guardian of the UK.

Congress, of course, is also trying to deflect attention from its cap-in-hand entreaty to the Shahi Imam by calling it a personal appeal on both sides, though the Election Commission is likely to let Congress get away with it for the small impact it will make.

In fact, Bukhari’s brother was quick to publicly disagree and identified the Congress Party as the most communal of all and renowned for letting down Muslims everywhere in the country. Several other Muslim clerics and leaders have  also been prompt to state that the Shahi Imam of Delhi’s Jama Masjid does not speak for them or the Muslims in general.  

The tussle over the Muslim vote between the BJP and the Congress is likely to continue in the remaining days of the campaigning, of course, but there are enough signs that the minorities will vote according to their own convictions. And that they may turn away from bad experiences with the Congress, the SP and the BSP. 

Past attempts of this Shahi Imam Bukhari to back any political party, unlike his father in the 1980s, has not been very effective. But the days of Muslims being ordered to vote via fatwa as it were, may indeed be over. Someone may need to tell the Maulanas and Imams to stick to their religious duties before it backfires on the polity.

(922 words)

6^th April 2014

Gautam Mukherjee

Modi Mission 300

Modi Mission 300

Who is putting the top 30 stocks Sensex in the running to scale 23,000 when the general election results are announced? Will the new Government build infrastructure China style to finally cater to a population of over 1.2 billion and counting? The optimism is based on much more than getting rid of a discredited and tired incumbent. India is seen to be at last on the threshold towards becoming a developed country.

Besides, the rally so far accounts for just a 11% rise in US dollar terms for foreign investors, and there is much perceived undervaluation still on the table due to a weak rupee. Many FIIs expect a further 20% increase in US dollar terms from here just to even the score.

The stock market reached 22,551 points a couple of days ago, and the moribund but crucial small-cap and midcap stocks too are moving up at last. The latter, partly because the FIIs are reaching their statutory limits for large-cap stocks, and have no choice but to broaden their stock picks. There will be some fatigue and profit-taking from time to time of course, but the graph seems to be on the up and up.

The strengthening rupee, 20% or more coming up given a stable new Government, will make it better for FIIs investing now when it comes time to cash out. This FII money on top of the ever reliable NRI remittances is adding to our hard currency reserves too.

Congress may claim that the stock markets are rallying because of its belated ‘good performance’, but not one analyst seems to agree. Even the Current Account Deficit (CAD), brought under control now, begs the question why it wasn’t done earlier. Besides, it has only been achieved by choking imports including gold, and kicking the huge welfare debt can down the road, to the next fiscal and beyond.

Besides, there is the scandal of the massive non- performing assets (NPA) of the public sector banks, the highest ever, that are blithely being written off now. This is combined with the highly stressed borrowing of most corporates, running into trillions, necessitating loan restructuring. Both are sinister time-bombs that could collapse the banking system, created entirely under UPA management, and tell a murky and collusive story of its own.   

So, an altogether unconvinced set of observers, fed up of being fed half-truths and outright untruths, are saying that in any case stock markets rally on expectations of a better future. And in this instance, a future that involves a Modi-led BJP/NDA Government. Many noted international investment banks/brokers like Goldman Sachs, CLSA, Nomura etc. have been categorical in welcoming this. And also why there is a flood of new dollars coming in.

Every successive Opinion Poll is giving a few more seats to the BJP/NDA combine, bringing it ever closer to the half-way mark.  A lot of this is due to the Modi emphasis on development, jobs, infrastructure, growth, high speed trains, 24x7 electricity and water, healthcare for all, education, women’s empowerment , quick decision making, streamlining of processes, good governance, speed of implementation , checking  corruption, responsiveness of government etc. to the exclusion of the old mandir-masjid politics that puts  most people off.  

The BJP’s prospective post-poll allies are also looking good, particularly in the South of India and in West Bengal. It is not surprising therefore that every Congress worthy is looking shell-shocked on TV. In fact, many of the established spokespersons have gone missing in action, substituted by new and unknown horses for these now altogether perilous courses.

It is a rare general election indeed when the outcome is to all intents and purposes is known and predetermined in advance.  Even the  visa denying  United States has reluctantly come to the conclusion that a Modi Government is imminent like it or not, and have decided to change their UPA leaning Ambassador. The new person might even be a person of Indian origin, in fact a Gujarati, according to recent reports.

The anti- incumbency and anger being faced by the Congress Party is almost universal, with rare pockets such as Assam to offer it some comfort. The strain of being blamed squarely for the huge price rises and inflation and the suffering it has caused nation-wide is writ large on the faces of the Gandhi dynasty, hobbled further by the alleged corruption close to home in the matter of Robert Vadra.

The UPA has truly lost its credibility, and there is nothing they can do to get it back. All their poll promises, the campaign rhetoric is falling on deaf ears. There is a perceptible gap between Congress words and deeds, the enforced jollity and grim reality, the sonorous promises and bitter truth.

Modi himself, sensing the popular mood, has upgraded his target to over 300 seats, instead of the erstwhile 272 plus. He declared this at a recent rally in Bareilly to which he arrived, uncharacteristically, hours late, as the Civil Aviation Authorities kept both his helicopter and aeroplane waiting for hours on the tarmac in New Delhi.

At 300 seats, the BJP/NDA and their post-poll allies will, of course, be able to blow away the threat of  ongoing efforts to cobble together a Third Front Government propped up by a cynical Congress. There are, in any case, truly intractable mutual incompatibilities between the prospective constituents, and the perception that it cannot function or last.

The money coming in to the Indian stock and debt market is almost exclusively foreign and institutional now. The Sensex gained 6% in March. It remains to be seen how much it rises in April, but there is no retail or local participation of note. This lot, which constitutes 80% of the investment community, both numerically and financially, may well be waiting till after May 16^th to join the party.

(969 words)

April 3^rd, 2014

Gautam Mukherjee

The Convoy Turns Right

The Convoy Turns Right

Every successive Opinion Poll gives a higher tally to BJP and the current NDA, and significantly less to the Congress and the remnants of the UPA. This is making the Congress ever more hysterical and foul-mouthed, at the prospect of being shown the door.

The desperation reminds one of Saddam Hussein’s one time propagandist/spokesman, dubbed ‘Chemical Ali’ by the international press. The late great ‘Ali’ would appear nightly on CNN to deliver fervent, if fictional, briefings on Saddam’s triumphs in the First Gulf War. He used soaring hyperbole and gaudy hagiography on the achievements of  Saddam Hussein’s side of the war, even as the Americans and their ‘Allies’ bombed Iraq into rubble. His nickname however came from his previous role in gassing Kurdish rebels to death.

The most recent Poll, and there are several more in the works in the remaining days, gives 216 seats to BJP and 236 to the NDA, a number that is within striking distance of the half-way mark of 272.

Congress, its spokespersons and adherents may pour scorn on the efficacy of Opinion Polls, but even if they are broadly on target, it indicates that the electorate itself may have turned Right. The masses of Left-Liberal intelligentsia has not quite caught on to this radical mood shift amongst the people. This is when the country redefines Secularism into its level playing field avatar, and dumps Socialism too while it is about it.

The old Commentariat may well be in denial about all this, and that is why it is still treating and parlaying in what has become an obsolete idiom. Perhaps they all agree with Rahul Gandhi that the electorate is firmly behind the Congress headed for a UPA III, his analogy of hot air balloons, failed past Opinion Polls in 2004 and 2009 et al. Chemical Ali is reincarnated, but not in his jaunty black beret and fatigues. 

Also, such thinkers must be worried about their own places in a dispensation that does not believe in Congress politics or economics, or indeed in its date-expired idea of India. Meanwhile, the Indian Mujahideen  threatens to bomb  the girls of Welham’s School in Dehradoon.

Regardless, these worthies criticise and wonder at noted activist, academic and writer Madhu Kishwar, for  moving into  promoting Modi’s  ‘even-playing field’ for all cause, and ‘development first’ vision.  Maybe Kishwar has realised, as they have not, at least as yet, that the young voting public is not listening to Congress any more. It does not believe, perhaps even finds it demeaning, to be at the receiving end of doles and giveaways. And maybe they have seen through the preposterous habit of  naming every massive public welfare programme, every arterial road and public institution, after one or the other member of the Gandhi dynasty, as if they were using their own money instead of the tax payers’!

It is ironic that this is the situation, because Congress managed to trash the BJP’s “India Shining” campaign  10 years ago precisely by portraying it, quite unfairly, as non-inclusive growth. But today, we have a ship-wrecked economy, minimal growth, and very few new jobs. The doles are paid for with frightening deficits, and designed, primarily to induce the poor into voting for the Congress. Many reports say the intended recipients have not received the welfare money. That there are wholesale fictitious disbursements and fudged official records kept by middle-men who have managed, with political patronage, to enrich themselves instead.

If this poll trend keeps up, the cynical Congress plan of propping up a Third Front Government too is doomed, particularly if the NDA stitches together a number closer to 300. And the country can truly look forward to a stretch of stability, decisive governance and prosperity in line with the anticipation of the stock market, the money market, and several learned observers from both home and abroad.

But Congress, losing hope of leading any post poll coalition, is totally preoccupied with preventing a Modi-led Government. The polls are giving it between 75 and 91 seats at present, precipitously down from 206 in 2009. Still it is determined to keep power by the back door if possible, while portraying its blatant skulduggery as inclusive politics in the service of the nation.

Of course, the arithmetic must favour it. And then it must somehow persuade enough regional parties and independents etc. to cobble together a third or alternate formation. This won’t be easy, given the rampant egos, massive ambitions and intractable internal rivalries it will have to deal with. Nevertheless, Congress is wooing the Left already. It wants to recreate the political scenario of 1996 in 2014, says the media, irrespective of the harm it will do to the economy and in utter disregard of  the real will of the people.

However, if these projected numbers do hold up or better themselves, there will simply not be enough coalition-minded MPs to make up 272 for a Third Front circus. Which outcome is to be fervently hoped for, because a hodge-podge of political parties thrust upon the public by an unscrupulous and unprincipled bazaar bartering process will only create instability and stymie governance.

Congress does not seem to care what effect such chicanery and political spoiling the pitch will have on the country, its image, and its economy. It knows a strong BJP/NDA Government could put paid to its return for at least the next two terms, and probably result in its disintegration in the interim. In a sense therefore the mood in the Congress is funereal, and concerned with its very survival.

The welfare juggernaut however is going for broke. The Congress manifesto, dubbed a ‘deceitful’ document by the BJP, is another weighty bushel of socialist promises and rights legislation, planned on everything short of the right to breathe.  It has however had no impact, because of negligible implementation in the past of many fine sounding laws.  And then there is the avalanche of corruption under its watch. Governance too has been marked by policy paralysis throughout.

The B JP manifesto promises jobs for the masses, taxation relief for the middle classes, and infrastructure development, water, electricity, education, health facilities, for all. Through all the noise and bluster of the electioneering, it feels credible when  the B JP promises things. It is easy to believe the development rhetoric of a man who has delivered 12% growth for a decade or more in Gujarat. Perhaps this then is how an era draws to a close, brought to its knees by its own incompetence. Not with a bang, as TS Eliot, the great modern poet had it, but with a whimper.

(1,101 words)

April 1^st, 2014

Gautam Mukherjee

Chidambaram Spins A Yarn

Chidambaram Spins A Yarn

P. Chidambaram wears his arrogance like a halo at all times. It persuades himself to think that he is somehow blameless and above the common fray. He called the first of his farewell press conferences, in which he dressed up an apology as triumphalism. The surmise is that most probably he was instructed by his High Command to try and steal some of Narendra Modi’s thunder with regard to the country’s finances and economy. 

So Chidambaram came, his frustration writ large on his tired face, and talked down his nose to the media. He glossed over his own dismal performance. He spoke instead about the stability imparted lately because of a controlled current account deficit. He was asked about growth. He was asked about the state of industry. He was asked about gold imports. But when Chidambaram feels under pressure, he responds with an even more withering haughtiness rather than answers.

Nevertheless, his recent actions tend to speak louder than his stone-walling words. He claimed once again that he is not retiring from politics even though he has handed over his constituency in Tamil Nadu to his untried son. He knows there is little chance of winning this time either way. His fragile grass-roots credentials also must have played its part.

Why then did Chidambaram call a press conference? When he has been, more than once, publicly distraught, at the economy being burdened by colossal debt due to Sonia Gandhi’s reckless welfare initiatives. Of course, he had absolutely no say in the matter, and was required to just juggle the books to find an accommodation.  

The strategic brief now must have been to try and wrest some of the credit for the sharp rise in the stock markets and the value of the rupee for himself and the Congress Party. He tried to dispel the widely held view that the money and stock markets are rallying in the expectation of a Modi-led government. One that is expected to be stable, decisive, and deliver good governance to boot.

What is Chidambaram’s biggest achievement as he sees it now?  It is ‘stability’, he says, by virtue of his containment of the CAD, the reduction in inflation, the rise in the value of the rupee and all round improvements in outlook. And he drummed this home despite it having come at the end of the UPA tenure. That the CAD was previously out of control because of wild and unplanned UPA expenditure earlier was not mentioned. Also he did not mention that it has been ‘contained’ now because a lot of the welfare expenditure committed has been pushed to the next fiscal. This was a trick Chidambaram performed at the Vote On Account itself. 

In his own book, Chidambaram thought he endeared himself to the media by dismissing BJP’s former Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha’s 18 questions as ‘puerile’, and asking why Yashwant Sinha was not standing for elections this time, instead of his son.

Chidambaram staunchly refused to accept criticism for his own actions, however theoretical or wasteful. But he disdainfully attributed Gujarat’s spectacular growth rates to a catch-all ‘crony capitalism’. In this, he echoes, of all people, the 49 day former Chief Minister of Delhi Arvind Kejriwal, who commands almost as much credibility as himself.  

Chidambaram and Kejriwal,, acute observers both, cannot however explain how  Narendra Modi won three successive terms of keenly contested state elections, when the only people ostensibly benefited were his extremely rich ‘cronies’.

Chidambaram also did not hesitate to blame Pranab Mukherjee, now the President, and then  his predecessor as FM, for the state of the economy under his watch. He said the ‘rescue act’ he undertook on taking over, should have begun a year before, implying that Mukherjee had failed to act. And blaming Mukherjee for why he failed to stem the rot any sooner, probably makes it alright in his own eyes.

Of course, Chidambaram’s method to control both the deficit and inflation was to slow the economy to a state of near stagflation. Very little has been happening in the economy for many quarters now and governance too is at a stand-still.

During the press conference, Chidambaram also spoke about the ‘character’ of  Narendra Modi with immense distaste, giving examples of the latter’s alleged phraseology to illustrate  what he meant. The idea probably was to trash Modi’s image and cast doubt on how his probable victory in the general elections could make the markets happy in anticipation.

Finally, to underline that he was still the FM, Chidambaram allowed that he may loosen gold imports soon. Again, what he did not say is the huge amount of gold being smuggled into the country, in a throwback to the heady days of Haji Mastan.  Chidambaram probably thinks, in his contempt for the intelligence of the general public, that stage-management is just as good as the truth. And he fancies, on the day before April Fool’s Day, that he is very good at it too.

(827 words)

April 1^st, 2014

Gautam Mukherjee

The Wheel Of Fortune

The Wheel Of Fortune

The people who spoke or wrote of Narendra Modi as a potential prime minister five years ago were few and far between. These futurists saw the flaws in a twisted definition of an essentially self-serving and vote-bank building secularism. The inequity in this, the subversion of the constitutional intent, was lost on most, because ‘it’ was accepted as conventional wisdom having been so oft repeated. It was regarded, not just as a Nehruvian shibboleth, but the very idea of India!

So this intrepid minority spoke up in favour of another vision of a Modi defined secularism, that spoke not of victimhood and entitlement, but of equal opportunity for all without fear or favour. And this vanguard pointed out its truth and efficacy being demonstrated in the form of greater prosperity for all the people of Gujarat.

Modi stood then, as he does now, not so much for the building of the Ram Mandir at Ayodhya, or even the abolition of Article 370 in Kashmir, but surging development and growth. Gujarat was posting 12% GDP figures year on year including a 10% growth in agriculture against a national figure that languishes at between 2 to 3 % per annum.   

Modi was already the epitome of the success of a right-of-centre vision, uncluttered by religious and majoritarian overtones, that has now become quite fashionable. The old Hindutva surge after LK Advani’s Rath Yatra to Ayodhya had indeed given the BJP under Atal Bihari Vajpayee a spectacular full term in power. But the Vajpayee Government was marked by its moderation, inclusiveness, pragmatism, and tremendous economic progress. Ideology was firmly and consciously put on the back burner.

But many people, thanks to persistent and fear-mongering Congress propaganda, actually lumped Modi together with a vigorous Hindutva agenda. So, only a few saw the NaMo emphasis on development politics and efficient governance to the exclusion of other notions, at first.

The NDA lost the 2004 election, despite a brilliant innings under Prime Minister Vajpayee, because the Congress managed to portray the ‘India Shining’ poll campaign to mean a cold economic growth without jobs for the masses. And Congress thought it had its winning formula with welfarism for the poor, waivers of farm loans and the like, particularly when it came to power unexpectedly after 8 years in the wilderness. And the economy be damned. It worked for them once again in 2009, confronted by a disunited, fractious, uncharismatic and confused BJP. This convinced Sonia and now Rahul Gandhi that wefarism was the best way to continue.

Of course, the Atal B ihari Vajpayee government’s achievements could not be brushed aside in 2009 either. But the BJP’s clear loss for a second time had a precious few thinking of the Gujarat Chief Minister as a potential BJP/NDA prime minister the next time around.

UPA II, led by the Leftist views of Sonia Gandhi’s extra constitutional N AC (National Advisory Council), went economically downhill almost from the start. The global economic crisis from 2008 did not help, but the singular lack of imagination and fresh ideas of our Government destroyed the economy, compounded by the massive and unprecedented corruption.

Vajpayee’s legacy stands undiminished after all this time. With its consistently high growth rates, the successful handling of the Kargil War, the efforts to improve relations with Pakistan, the achieving of nuclear weapons status, and the initiation of the Golden Quadrilateral roadways, it contrasted very favourably with the horrors of UPA II.

And good governance is still alive and well in the BJP ruled states of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh certainly, and to some extent in Karnataka, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh, while they were under BJP rule too.   And Vajpayee’s demonstrated ability to hold a large and disparate coalition together is not forgotten either.

Still, conventional wisdom, influenced by the majoritarian view of that twisted secularism, pigeon-holed Modi, for as long as it could, as a polarising figure with no appeal outside Gujarat.  So it was commonplace for Narendra Modi to be routinely vilified, demonised and abused in print and on TV. And anyone who had the temerity to back Modi was facilely labelled a Fascist.

LK Advani, the patriarch, Modi’s staunch backer in those days, knew what it felt like to be vilified. Advani had been widely blamed, without substance, for guiding the bringing down of the Babri Masjid. But today, the wheel having turned full circle, the octogenarian Advani is regarded as a moderate.

The young voter on the rolls today, is in a 65% majority, and largely unconcerned with ideology. It wants decisive leadership modernisation, infrastructure development, and economic progress above all else. This constituency of aspiration has warmed to Modi’s constant emphasis on development, growth and jobs.

The public intellectual today is witnessing a changed BJP and finding very little to complain about in any objective way. The old outrage at the ‘idea of India’ being threatened is not relevant anymore. All Gujarat’s accomplishments in the economic area are a template of what is being offered by NaMo to all the people of this country. And he is more than ready to take the Vajpayee legacy of moderation and good governance forward at the Centre.

Modi is a person who gains through the adversities he is subjected to because of his considerable personal fortitude and patience. Five years ago, there were very few advocates of a right-of-centre solution to the problems of this nation. Today it seems like an idea whose time has come.  

(911 words)

March 29^th, 2014

Gautam Mukherjee

The Modi Surge To Power

The Modi Surge to Power Will Bring Great Prosperity To India And Friends

The Economic Freedom Survey conducted recently by economist Bibek Debroy and others pointed out the most impressive fact that Gujarat has enjoyed 12%  GDP growth year on year from 2005 to 2013,  that is,for nine straight years. Of course, Narendra Modi has been Chief Minister for longer, but this year’s Survey only covered 2005 to 2013.

This spectacular economic performance is the truth of the matter, despite the Manmohan Singh PMO trying to blemish the fact by stating Gujarat’s GDP grew only at 9.52% this year.

What was the senior PMO official, one Pankaj Pachauri, the PM’s Media Advisor, no less, thinking? Where did he glean his information when the august CSO (Central Statistical Office) data is there for the referencing?

This 12% plus GDP rate, actually 12.69% for this fiscal, in Gujarat, compares favourably with the numbers from China, still the fastest growing economy in the world. If Narendra Modi and the NDA, given the opportunity by the voters of India, can turn out this kind of number nationally for the next 10 years, India could actually eliminate poverty as defined by the quixotic and out of touch Planning Commission; that too within a decade.

This will mean the rescue and dignifying of millions of people, over 300 million, lifting them out of their hand to mouth misery. And it would be done by creating productive assets, jobs, trade, industry, agricultural modernisation and value addition, health, education, technology, and infrastructure. And not by Congress-style debilitating welfare, rooted in another era. And with no plan whatsoever on how to pay for the massive hand-outs besides resorting to ever more deficit financing which steadily bankrupts the nation.

The BJP manifesto, coming soon, after a disappointing one replete with even more welfarism from the Congress, reportedly pledges the creation of tens of millions of new jobs and up to 300 new ‘smart’ cities to house them out of.

The rudderless policy making of the UPA is illustrated by the bitter truth that it has reduced the national GDP to less than 4.5% when we need a minimum of near double digits to stay abreast of our planned economic commitments, let alone the non-budgeted expenditure. So much so, that the incumbent Finance Minister, P Chidambaram, has confided that it would have been better, in retrospect, to create jobs rather than promote massive, and very leaky, welfare programmes for the poor.

Narendra Modi’s GDP accomplishment by way of contrast, is downright stellar. The magnitude of such a potential achievement on the national stage, with a trebling of the current GDP, will transform this country. Besides, Gujarat qualifies as the economically freest state amongst the top 20 large states considered in the Survey, for the second year in a row, with Bihar, at the bottom of the pile. According to the Economic Freedom Survey, Bihar received a 15 fold increase in Plan spending, financed almost entirely by central transfers over the past eight years, despite being part of the NDA for most of it.

The UPA’s sorry economic management has reduced FDI to a merest trickle. And it was another UPA Minister, Jairam Ramesh, who has publicly lamented that the retrospective taxation that the UPA inflicted has done immense damage to the country’s reputation amongst foreign investors.

There is also a seemingly lopsided and selective approach to corporations accused of wrong-doing under the UPA. Of course, the judiciary is technically independent of the legislative and executive arms of government, and there is no case being made out that this is not so.

Still, it is noticeable that a man of the stature of  Subrata Roy of Sahara, rumoured to have taken a stand against the elevation of Mrs Sonia Gandhi to the prime ministership along with Mulayam Singh of the Samajwadi Party, those many years ago, continues to languish in jail for a month, with draconian strictures applied to his bail conditions.

At the same time, the layman, untutored in legal niceties, may well wonder how Vijay Mallya does not seem to  be under the lash at all. This, despite defaults on massive public debt incurred by Kingfisher Airlines under his executive watch,  and Mallya’s reportedly personal guarantees on some of it.

Likewise, not much has happened by way of retribution to the many allegedly involved in dozens of scams under UPA rule. Indeed many have been brazenly shielded, others even rewarded. The ones who were not so lucky are A Raja and Kanimozhi Karunanidhi, both of the DMK, in the context of the 2G scam.

Getting away from this mysterious morass of the past to look at a likely future, the number of Indian companies with $1 billion or more in net income has risen slightly. There are now 18 companies that qualify in FY 14. This is not a huge number in international terms, given the thousands of publicly listed companies in India, besides the privately owned ones, but augurs well nevertheless for the future.

Citibank’s Adam Gilmour, Head of Asia-Pacific Currency and Subsidiary Sales, has stated there could be a 35% rise in the value of the rupee to around Rs.40 to the US dollar, if Modi forms the next government. If Gilmour is broadly right, and many others have predicted a stronger rupee  too, it will bring more companies into the billion dollar income club. Besides, it will attract a flood of foreign investment and substantially widen and strengthen our economic foundations.

(901 words)

March 27^th, 2014

Gautam Mukherjee

Talents Vs Entitlement

Talent And Merit Vs  Sense Of Entitlement

There is a current ‘public service’ type TV advertisement for a brand of motorcycle, that exhorts the viewer to vote for the talented in the forthcoming general elections. This is in itself a departure, this new talk of talent and merit rather than the old caste, creed, religion, and rural/urban divides as determinants. This strikes a chord with some, even as a lot of boorish behaviour is on display, from our craven and quite unselfconscious netas.  

The economy, the polity, the security, indeed the urgent issues that confront the nation, are totally ignored in the melee, like a subset of parliamentary behaviour in the ‘house’ these days.

In the middle of ‘ticket’ distribution season, several prospectives are not happy when their hopes are dashed, either because they don’t get a ticket at all, or are asked to contest from a seat/constituency not to their liking. The jockeying and lobbying is intense, but the worst tantrums seem to come from  accomplished and learned elders, often former pillars, founders, master strategists and ministers of the realm etc., who should, and no doubt do, know better.

Not that it makes the blindest bit of difference to their heckling and haggling. Their naked focus is on their own place in the intended scheme of things, being of the greatest, even paramount importance, according to them. The concept of ‘service’ is only observed in the breach, and in the sonorous set speeches to the people once more important issues are settled.

 And this kind of behaviour seems uniform in party after political party, national, regional, factional, and so on.  Some of the protest may indeed be justified, as in when party supremos blatantly give tickets to their children and pliant relatives at the expense of the more deserving. But at other times there is nothing on the table but a sense of entitlement.

We are, as a consequence, witnessing a number of people, grandees and doyens amongst them, behaving petulantly, switching parties or going independent, with great energy and nimbleness, despite advanced age. A preponderance of recent aisle crossers are heading for the BJP, quite a few from Congress and leading regional parties, putting paid to earlier talk of their ‘untouchability’. But others like to fish in troubled waters, jockeying for leverage for the post poll scenario, given this era of coalitions.

Some of these new arrivals therefore, ‘parachuted in’ from all over, are also getting tickets for their perceived ‘winnability’, much to the chagrin of other ‘in situ’ hopefuls. The latter bristle, grumble and threaten,backed by their often lumpen supporters. They imply things, propagandise and preen, while their supporters go on a rampage.

The prospect of loss of power and its gravy-train of money, pelf, benefits, patronage, prestige, influence and prominence, hits the old guard the hardest because the elderly tend to be naturally reactionary and sentimental. They look back on their contributions and glory days and expect to rule the roost on the strength of these past credentials. When, and if, this fails to impress, they indulge in a torrent of disparagement of the present dispensation. It does not occur to such people to be future-oriented. Perhaps they know they have nothing more to offer.

Many of these worthies have contributed substantially to making a mess of the last general election and the one before that too. Others are stellar in their association with scams and corruption and illegalities, but even this does not stop them wanting a ticket of their choice. The implication being that they have enriched everyone up and down the line and therefore should not be singled out to carry the can on corruption at all.

Some elders, in this party or that, are known to have indulged in blatant factionalism, even betrayal, and have contributed to the losses of state governments by direct and misfired actions. Do they remember their own past shortcomings, and more importantly do they care? It is obvious they would rather rest on their laurels than dwell on the brickbats they might have earned. And they can be very thick-skinned about it too.

Other more cynically motivated moves from the old guard include trying to create and nurture pressure groups and dissidents, and actively pit one group against another. All of this, in order to internally influence and induce outcomes, and personally benefit from the power politics involved. Some even have unspoken prime ministerial and other positional ambitions as their agenda irrespective of the stated positions of their party.

These senior politicians are quick to be hurt and embittered at being overlooked or abandoned by their own protégés, despite acute displays of bad political judgement, faltering and failing administrative ability, inability to look at the broader picture, the here and now, let alone the tomorrows.

Despite the melodrama played up by the media for its newsworthiness rather than substance, there is no option for those entrusted with plotting a winning electoral strategy, but to stay the course. The threat of political disruption is real enough from such fringe elements, but buckling under pressure is fraught with unpleasant consequences.  In an ideal   world, the recalcitrant elders would have been willing to make a contribution in an advisory or non-political role. But many prefer to fight like there is no tomorrow. Change however, is by its very nature, inevitable, and cannot be held fast by the past.

(891 words)

March 23^rd 2014

Gautam Mukherjee