The Conundrum of the Weak versus the Strong

The Conundrum of the Weak versus the Strong

There seem to be several prime ministerial aspirants for the 2014 general election within the top echelons of the Congress party. Most notably, there is Finance Minister P.Chidambaram.  He denies it strenuously but he is not alone in this regard.

Should Mr. Rahul Gandhi follow his mother’s lead and refuse to accept the “poison chalice”; there will be several contenders. And what will matter most is any candidate’s equation with mother and son. But even this is nuanced in favour of Rahul, the inheritor of the dynastic mantle. So let us hope he doesn’t pick a light-weight, chosen principally for his pliability.

From the point of view of the educated middle class urban citizen, who will have a significant impact on an estimated 200 parliamentary seats in 2014, or before; this is probably a happy prospect.

This middle class has developed electoral heft. It wants to hold the Government accountable on a wide range of issues. The media too have become powerful influencers now. More than 300 million urban people listen to what they have to say, in addition to over 600 million rural folk who have gained massively from connectivity and upward mobility themselves.  The electorate is now both aware and demanding.

So to continue the day dream, you have top corporate lawyer and Harvard educated Mr. Chidambaram, of great hands-on experience of governance at the top. Or you have Urban Development and Parliamentary Affairs Minister Mr. Kamal Nath, also a Union Minister for decades now. Mr. Nath, urbane, suave, well- liked by all parliamentarians, has turned principal trouble-shooter for the UPA since the elevation of Mr. Pranab Mukherjee.  Either of them will make excellent prime ministers given the chance. They are articulate, well-educated, sophisticated and modern in outlook. They are known to favour pragmatism and reform; and are well regarded internationally.

The worry would be if a candidate was chosen by the Congress only for its unquestioning loyalty to the first family as, it was perceived, was the case with former President Pratibha Patil. That she broke the glass ceiling for gender equality into that highest if ceremonial office is something of a subsidiary benefit.

Mr. Rahul Gandhi, his elevation to No. 2 in the Congress Party hierarchy notwithstanding, may not relish the switch to power with ultimate responsibility for everything. He cannot, if PM, duck out of sight for months, but must be on the job 24x7 with the buck stopping with him.

The PMship is an altogether more thorny business than being VP of the Party. He would be at the head of an unwieldy and restive coalition. This is undoubtedly a far cry from the comfort of untrammelled power without accountability for either governance or party performance.

This has served mother, son, son-in law, and sister rather well over the last eight years of an operational Diarchy. That Diarchy has never worked in India even under the British may have a lot to do with explaining the drift in both the economy and governance that we have been witnessing. But we may be in for more of the same should the UPA form the next Government. Except that the Congress Party too may not be in the best of health under Diarchy.

Besides there is the simple, if embarrassing, dogma  of palace politics. When the UPA loses an assembly election or there is a national issue in a mess, including the prevalent massive corruption, it is never the fault of the first family. This even though the family has been more or less prominent in the election campaigning and the strategy development that precedes it.

This includes, as far as the office-bearing mother and son are concerned, the important matter of picking of candidates and the distribution of tickets. In addition there   is quite strong influence in the distribution of portfolios and posts in Government and associated bodies too. But when the results come, the first family is never criticised for the failures, but is invariably praised, fulsomely, for all successes.

There is every likelihood that Mr. Rahul Gandhi, confronted with the possibility of losing to Mr. Narendra Modi in a presidential style parliamentary election,  that must cobble together and hold a coalition, demonstrate and keep a majority etc.; may cry off. He may see wisdom in adopting the philosophical position of renunciation of the crown in favour of a proxy.

Of course, while there is a ground swell of support developing for Mr. Modi, most notably from the VHP and the Akali Dal in addition to sections of the RSS and BJP; there is no settlement of this issue as yet. And the issue of the prime ministerial candidate, with BJP’s embarrassment of riches in this regard,  is not nearly as pressing as removing BJP’s “untouchability” first.

Indeed, Mr. Nitish Kumar and JDU’s objections to Mr. Modi’s  possible candidature should be used by the BJP Parliamentary Board to sweep the “communal” image of the BJP out of the door and down the  street!

The 177 million plus Muslims of India constituting over 13 per cent of the population will exercise considerable electoral power. They are no longer automatically anyone’s captive vote bank. And they are open to being wooed by the BJP if the party and its supporting Sangh Parivar can see the wisdom in doing so.

New BJP President Rajnath Singh’s recent reaching out to the Muslim community is a clear step in the right direction. And because he is a trusted RSS lieutenant, this initial gesture holds promise of the BJP and the Sangh Parivar shifting from  its entrenched positions.

And then, there is the news of SP supremo Mr. Mulayam Singh casting his hat into the ring. This underlines the point that the regional parties may be in a position to dictate terms to the Congress and indeed the BJP, after the election.  

The Dalits who constitute about 16 per cent of the population are also turning increasingly mindful of their rights and entitlements. Together with the Muslims they account for a full third of the population. And the changing fortunes of the political parties indicate that these people cannot be used  cynically without getting anything substantial in return.

 It is therefore obvious that there is a great opportunity for any formation that offers real benefits to this massive constituency and forms a “rainbow coalition” with other groups. This is not to suggest massive doses of welfarism, but development. Only in development is there dignity and a future for the downtrodden. The remaining 66 per cent of the rich, middle class and poor of this country too are longing for good governance and development that touches all.

(1,106 words)

February 4^th, 2013

Gautam Mukherjee