The Congress Scorched Earth Policy

The Congress Scorched Earth Policy

Watching the reckless way in which the UPA Government is increasing welfare expenditure while income falls like a stone; one has to wonder at the underlying strategy. After all, the Congress Party heading this ruling coalition, prides itself on understanding governance better than all others. It has had cumulative decades in power.

Right-wing economist Mr. Surjit Bhalla, wrote a scathing indictment, calling the UPA’s economic management “disastrous”. This was in a recent Op-Ed piece in the Indian Express, which he ends by saying that Mrs. Sonia Gandhi who runs not only the Party but de-facto, the Government as well, may have ended up killing off the 128 year old Congress with her rampant Welfarism/Socialism.

Meanwhile, the dreadful economic facts pouring out from every survey and analysis seem to bolster Mr. Bhalla’s prognosis. Business and Industry has slowed to a near standstill, inflation including food inflation is shooting up, investment has stopped, the stock market is sinking,  the fiscal deficit has rocketed up to an all-time high, FDI has dried up, domestic demand has fallen drastically, growth has halved, exports are languishing, the rupee has depreciated at least 20%.

More relentless bad news is projected by non-partisan observers both domestic and foreign. Everyone is horrified by the profligacy except the seniors in the Government who continue to assure the public all is well and going to get better.

But is there a method in this madness? The UPA is hoping that the huge populism of the Food Bill and the Homestead Bill on top of all the subsidies and welfare programmes running presently will bring back 2009.

Then, the corruption- ridden MGNREGA caper is supposed to have delivered victory to them. So what if it has cost the nation some Rs. 1,70,000 crores with more than half the amount, Bhalla estimates it to be about $14 billion, siphoned off? Besides, the programme is faltering, only a fifth of the total spent paid out to the recipient poor in wages. It is certainly not a great success on the ground. But did it give Mrs. Gandhi UPA II?

So there is an attempt to pull off an encore.  But if UPA is shown the door in 2014, the Congress led Government may want to ensure the economy will be so ruined, that the successor Government will not last either. This particularly because of the populist compulsions of coalition politics.  The successor Government will inherit empty coffers, huge indebtedness, promises to deliver on, and an all-round fiscal mess.

This is a classic scorched earth policy, generally employed by retreating armies on the march. It says, in electoral terms, if I don’t get back in, whoever does will rue the day!

The BJP led NDA, most likely to form the next Government, is going to face huge economic challenges. Fortunately for the NDA, they are in power in a number of key states.  This will stabilise the aftermath to some extent.

In 2014, the real electoral battle is between Socialism’s non-delivery and disastrous economic performance under the UPA; and Development Economics, with a glorious track record in Gujarat, being promoted by the NDA. If this is polarisation of economic approaches, then so be it, and high time too. The bleating about growth without jobs and inclusiveness is fraudulent beyond the rhetoric.

The current UPA allies are disillusioned by the step-motherly treatment meted out to them by the Congress Party and are looking for alternatives. If the NDA makes them comfortable they may well switch sides.

Some like SP’s Mulayam Singh Yadav are not averse to the BJP while hoping to form another Third Front, but will such a front have the numbers? But who can argue with the benefits that will accrue from big ticket development?

With the advent of Mr. Narendra Modi into the parliamentary board of the BJP, it may be time for the principal Opposition to draw in more allies into the NDA.

The Trinamool Congress may be ripe, and the BJD too. Both SP and BSP could join up in principle, but only one can in practice. Ditto the equation with the DMK and the AIDMK.  Since Mr. Modi enjoys a personal equation with Ms. Jayalalithaa, the AIDMK is more likely to sign on. State by state, Modi must reach out.

Divisive issues such as the Uniform Civil Code, the abolition of Article 370 in Kashmir, Hindutva, Mandir and other majoritarian grandstanding,  needs to be replaced by Mr. Modi’s development plank converted into a battering ram. Development needs to be targeted and applied like a balm in minority heavy areas and elsewhere alike.

The Congress loves to call Mr. Modi a polarising figure. But the fact is, Gujarat’s growth has been most inclusive and more productive than in other places. This is beginning to be acknowledged by key Muslim groups in the state who are coming out in open support of Moditva.

Big, medium and small Business and Industry are solidly behind Mr. Modi. And the BJP have recently won even municipal elections in Muslim majority areas.

There is absolutely no truth in the kind of paranoid scare-mongering being promoted by the Congress in order to cling to yesterday. And Law and Order under the UPA has sunk to an all-time low while terrorism is running riot.

Some people are questioning the basic patriotism and integrity of various senior functionaries of the Congress Party and Government. The open looting that has replaced governance in a procession of scams ranging from the thievery allowed during the CWG, the multiple defence scams, the 2G Scam, the food grains scam, the water scam, the coal scam, etc. make you wonder whom this Government is actually serving? What happens to the High Command when this daylight robbery is going on?

The UPA’s nearly ten years in power finds both the country and the UPA in near ruin. How it came to this pass with supposedly competent and experienced people in the Government is quite a mystery.

The Congress Party speaks proudly of its “glue”, in the form of the inviolate and Peronistic High Command, while sneering at the BJP’s democratic  “infighting”. It only goes to show what happens when the glue itself is clueless.

Put charitably, the Congress Party is practicing the politics of nostalgia. It is hankering after a jingoistic and anachronistic throw- back to its glory days of single party near- dictatorship with appalling Soviet style Socialism.

It is now the job of today’s electorate to wake up to present-day reality, of aspirations, of modernity, of prosperity and growth, and sweep away the tired propagandists of empty promises and routine betrayal.  

(1,099 words)

March 31^st, 2013

Gautam Mukherjee