The Times They Are A Changing

The Times They Are A Changing

India is now the largest buyer of conventional weapons in the world, practically all of it on an imported basis, routine corruption scams notwithstanding. We are buying to modernise our armed forces, because we face two threats in our theatre, from Pakistan, a perennial problem,  and much more powerful China, a more mysterious  rival for domination of the region, even a counterbalance to the present world order.

Our own arms industry remains at, or near, the starting gate, despite frequent professions of intent from the Government in general and the present Defence Minister AK Anthony in particular. Meanwhile China makes its own nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers.

Union Minister AK Anthony, an abject Gandhi loyalist, whom some say could be considered for the post of PM if UPA forms the Government yet again; is sometimes called, without apparent irony, “Saint Anthony”, for being, it is said, reasonably incorruptible.

But despite his unquestioning loyalty to the Congress High Command, from which he draws his power and stability, he has succeeded in doing absolutely nothing to kick-start our own arms industry in the private sector, let alone bring it up to speed. Possibly because arms deals are amongst the biggest sources of payola for our rulers and their henchmen.

China meanwhile has just displaced the UK as the 5^th biggest arms exporter in the world, and this is principally on the back of its exports to Pakistan, which accounts for a fulsome 55% of all Chinese arms exports.  The shrinking of British stature is not surprising and of a piece with its loss of influence globally, but the sophistication and range of  the Chinese armaments industry is impressive for an essentially home grown programme.

Whether Pakistan pays for these Chinese armaments in hard currency, or even on the nail, is another matter. But China knows how to extract its pound of flesh from its client state and proxy India baiter anyway.

Besides it makes Pakistan hopelessly beholden, particularly with the US in the process of pulling out of Afghanistan.

China’s inroads into Baluchistan and a warm-water port on the Arabian Sea bordering the Gulf, POK, in the upper reaches of the Hindu Kush, and even into Afghanistan, with Pakistani good offices preceding, is a form of payment too.

There is also the diplomatic dividend of a tight alliance with the only Muslim nuclear state at present.

Having said that,  China does have its own future to think of, which calls for thinking on a much bigger scale, and out-of-the box enough to realise what worked in the 20^th century will not suffice in the 21st. In fact, this is evident already even as we are only in the second decade of the new century.

Quantum exports to the EU and the US are not what they used to be for China, and unlikely to pick up anytime soon. There is only feeble current growth, and a massive overhang of debt that threatens to collapse many of the constituent economies of the EU. The old borrow and spend model is largely discredited and is being pursued with near zero interest rates and easy monetary liquidity only to prevent seizure from sudden withdrawal. All of this applies also to the US with the proviso that it is very much bigger as an economy and more likely to be able to right itself.

Africa too cannot pay China enough in currency terms, but can, and does, hand over large tracts of natural resources that can be developed on very favourable terms. But that too costs massive money that China must provide for the infrastructure development before it can cash in.

The Iranians and other bits and pieces of the Middle East such as Syria, parts of Libya and Egypt and some of the “Jasmine” states leaning towards a radical Muslim hue, essentially hostile to the West, can buy Chinese goods and armaments. But these are largely barter deals. Most of it is in exchange for oil, but their populations, and consequently their appetites, are not too large.  So the balance of trade suffers in any case. 

Asia and the Pacific region is fragmented, over- fished by too many vendors, and that really leaves only India.

The brand new leadership in China, Li just now, and Xi  a little earlier, realise that they need to ramp up the commercial engagement with India which has a vast market of young people and huge pent up demand for very many things China is good at. And this means real confidence building measures with a country that feels inferior after the 1962 licking and ever since. But yet, we could certainly use Chinese collaboration in many areas.

Take for example our quaint railway system, fit only for a remake of “Jewel in the Crown” or  Richard Attenborough “Gandhi”. There is nothing remotely up-to-date about the Indian Railways even though it is ostensibly large enough to warrant ( debatable) a separate budget presentation every year.

   

Our infrastructure building takes forever to build, and the Chinese by contrast are experts at executing mega projects in record time.

For India, it is important not to feel militarily threatened. We have been witnessing an encirclement via our South Asian neighbours, Nepal, Sri Lanka, the unreliable and forever delinquent Pakistan, even Myanmar and Bangladesh, but it is starting to dawn on the Chinese that this policy  is not serving them very well. 

All these client states cannot fill Chinese coffers. They need China much more than China needs them. But India could enrich China, as it can all the countries of the West currently down on their luck.

This can become the basis of a very different kind of entente cordiale between the two Asian giants that account for nearly half the population of the world. 

It is no wonder then that President Xi  is looking forward to meeting our PM Manmohan Singh on the sidelines of the forthcoming BRICS Summit in Durban next week.And why President Xi and Premier Li, both representing a change of the power guard in China, have been signalling a desire to boost bilateral ties with India, which they call one of the “most important”.

It will take us Indians a long overture to trust the Chinese, because we have been there before in the Panchsheel days, only to be roundly thrashed by Chou En Lai and Mao. Besides, proxy Pakistan is in no mood to pipe down. And yet, the future demands a rapprochement that can benefit both countries much more than the present state of wariness.

(1,093 words)

March 20^th, 2013

Gautam Mukherjee