Elect NaMo, BJP and NDA If You Want The Economy To Take Off

Elect NaMo...

Will 2014 be any better for the economy of India than 2013, or indeed the disastrous stagnation of the last five years, since 2008? It depends very much on the action of the voter at the general elections. Politics holds the key to the Indian economy in 2014 and beyond.

If Narendra Modi is elected prime minister, with sufficient numbers for the BJP/NDA to dominate the coalition to come, then most definitely yes, we will have a very good five years. But the less dependence there is on restive new allies, with sometimes impossible demands, the better in making up the 272 plus seats for a majority.  This will become the acid test of both survival and future economic prognosis.

Though, there may be a case not to prejudge the attitude and demands of new post-poll allies, particularly if the other parties find themselves well short of the necessary numbers. But this can happen only if the NDA racks up much more than the minimum of 2 72.  

The NDA however is expected to win, according to most responsible observers, and this is likely to immediately stimulate economic optimism, anticipatory buoyancy, followed by robust growth on the ground. But the NDA must be able to form a strong, stable, Government, without the threat of blackmail or instability from any of the constituents in the coalition.

The danger is in an inconclusive verdict, or worse. Next year is the Year of The Wooden Horse according to the Chinese Zodiac. Let us hope it brings rapid growth and cheer to a highly demoralised economy, and not extensive horse-trading in Government formation and its continued survival. Besides, a weak Government will not be able to take advantage of expected international opportunities as the West including America continues to recover slowly.

Never has the economy of this country been so badly depleted; and so dependent on the poll verdict going forward. This election outcome will be a make- or-break for the Indian economy and indeed for the NDA.

There are many reasons to change course from welfarism and populism at any cost. There is no reason to avoid making sure the work being done to alleviate the sufferings of the poor are supported with robust economic growth to pay for it!  This responsible stance will encourage new investment which has been put on hold for quite some time, by both domestic and foreign players.

It is not right to regard the question as an either/ or matter. Because, as things stand, it is a twinning of growth and expenditure that is called for. In Gujarat, the poor have benefited over NaMo’s three terms. That is why they have consistently voted for him and the BJP. Ditto is the case in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. And it will once again be so in Rajasthan, after the slide- back years under Congress. But these are all State elections recently conducted.

How will the entire country vote in the general elections? A fractured, confused verdict as in Delhi will ensure that 2014 and beyond will be no improvement on present fortunes at best. And probably lead to yet another expensive general election, a national government, a round- table coalition with prime ministers changing after a time, President’s Rule etc. This is how Italy and Israel deal with fractured verdicts, and let us hope we don’t meet the same fate. Neither of their economies are anything to emulate! Israel survives on US hand-outs, and Italy is actually bankrupt and propped up somehow because of its membership of the EU.

The other possibilities if the numbers warrant it, are all depressingly Socialist to a greater or lesser degree. Every Party, including BJP for that matter, is committed and bounden to continue with policies of welfarism and populism enacted into law and in the form of various running schemes.

But right now, this is happening as an election sop/ploy, irrespective of how the Government pays for it with massive deficit financing. So, unless growth is also encouraged side by side; we can expect  even greater deficits, more subsidies and write-offs, an even less valuable rupee, lower emphasis on business and industrial growth, lower  GDP, sovereign rating downgrades, higher borrowing costs, rampant inflation, even worse non-performing asset (NPA) figures from the PSU Banks, higher taxes both direct and indirect, less FII and FDI investment, worse agricultural output, a frozen  agenda on economic reforms, reversed liberalisation, little or no infrastructure development, and gross political instability.  This list of woe is by no means conclusive!

The only political party committed to promote growth in the economy as the means to all other ends is the BJP/NDA. Punjab recently had a huge and promising investors conference presided over by the top leadership. NaMo’s Gujarat is known for its economic growth. Mumbai’s movers and shakers are all for economic growth, no matter who runs the Maharashtra Government, however badly.

And the Congress, which does pay occasional lip-service to growth belied by the UPA record, believes it can do something, after the elections, if it can somehow win first on its welfare agenda. That a Congress win is unlikely this time, is clear to all. Still, the venerable Party cannot be underestimated, or dismissed out of hand till every vote is finally counted.

(878 words)

December  30^th, 2013

Gautam Mukherjee

Free-Lunch Politics

Free- Lunch Politics

Forty-eight or so hours away from general election-year, it is not the refreshing if theatrical politics of AAP that is worrisome, but its economics.  In the stock market at euphoric times, the going around statement is: “This time its different”. Of course, it turns out, sickeningly, further on down the road, that it is not.

The ethical questions raised by the AAP, first kicking away from erstwhile mentor Anna Hazare and his quaint anti-corruption movement, and then promptly getting into bed with the Congress to form the Delhi Government, is another nail in its too-good-to-be-true, ‘imandaari’ coffin.

But the public seems to have moved on, unconcerned with this betrayal, but fascinated by Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal’s gritty, in-your-face audacity, his ‘janta’- style ‘munnabhai’ ways. Subhash Jha, the film director, as one commentator at the Ramlila Grounds swearing- in put it, could not have scripted this reality show.

This despite newly minted Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal swearing on his children that he would do no such thing. The personal oath was however overtaken promptly by a ‘sense of the street’ referendum. And an offer of  ‘unconditional’ turned ‘conditional’ support from the Congress.  The back door entry for principle-less Congress, is still an entry.

But then, lies becoming a habit need a little time,   and the wooden-boy Pinocchio’s nose did not grow quite so long in a day. Though Arvind Kejriwal,  with his pronounced national ambitions, likes to think of his Party, and the length of days, more in terms of Rome.

The politics of AAP is now sure to energise the pan-India fray leading up to the general elections, like it or not. So, we, the people, need to remind ourselves of what this could mean for the national economy.

 Assuming, that is, given the public fascination for AAP’s engaging form of Chaupal and Block interaction, that the AAP finds its way into the Lok Sabha. And this too, with a significant, regional- party like strength.  If it doesn’t, we can soon forget about AAP both at the Centre and in Delhi post-elections. And good riddance too. But we should be so lucky!

The AAP’s constant speechifying against corruption, which it claims taints all other parties but itself, is gaining serious traction with the people at this time. Particularly after their meteoric rise to power in Delhi on the backs of the hoi polloi. An aam aadmi whirlwind of expectations that  AAP is likely to reap and disappoint at its own peril.

But how long before corruption charges come tumbling out about the AAP itself, is anybody’s guess. The public might have had a glimpse of it already from the mouth of a certain cabinet- berth denied horse called Binny, but it was not to be. Still, as a starlet said on a recent Kofee With Karan episode: ‘Raat baki hai’.

AAP as the “Congress B Team” and Congress itself, are hoping to stop the Modi-Wave in its tracks. They think they have found the antidote to Modi’s Congress bashing, and Rahul Gandhi’s inability to counter Modi.  Arvind Kejriwal is highly articulate, connects well with the masses, and is not afraid to promise the moon. But how sure -footed is he when the heat is on?

What is the BJP going to do about it all? Defensiveness and dismissiveness will not work. Nor will ordinary common-or-garden maligning. It may be time to make a few well directed promises to the gallery too. Populism, with its emotive appeal, is very difficult to counter with just the truth or solid common sense.

And it is indeed ironic that till Congress jumped on the band-wagon and granted AAP additional credibility, some people were saying they would vote for AAP in Delhi and BJP at the national level. From this inclusion, BJP has now become the prime target for both Congress and the AAP. It will be, most certainly, a make-or- break election for the BJP; but break the challenge from the AAP it must.

It may be a mistake to harp too much on whether AAP delivers on its promises or not. The public seems determined to give it pass marks just for trying. What matters is the perception that they want to bring about a change in the body politic, and rid it of its unresponsiveness and corruption. Politically, the time is right for the AAP to capitalise on the public frustration with how things have been going for far too long. But, this is still all politics. The economy is listing and languishing from gross neglect in the meantime.

The fact is, sadly, this country is nearly broke because of drastically slowed-down GDP growth, high deficits, higher inflation, plummeting rupee, Congress welfarism, corruption, and  vote-bank pandering. It is likely to buckle under altogether, if more Congress/ AAP  type economics is  implemented. Because, these embroideries come on top, and in addition to- audacious vote gathering populist measures, outdoing each other and stacking up to garner the people’s delight.

AAP politics has connected with the people of Delhi, particularly the poor and middle class fed up with Congress high-handedness. It has catapulted the fledgling  party into the  hot seats of power. The  700 litres of free water  is on its way soon, thanks to the remedy of a quarterly subsidy of Rs. 30 crores to be put in place.  From whence will come this subsidy?

Electricity bills too will no doubt be slashed using similar tactics, and taking ‘political’ decisions on economic matters will become the populist AAP norm. AAP deserves congratulations for promising specific relief on utility bills, for building a brilliant campaign strategy, bristle- broom and all. As a bill payer I cannot help but applaud, but know, worryingly, that there is no reality in a free lunch.

Therefore, all that AAP can do is give with one hand, and take away with the other, but thereby keep its promises!  After all, our vast array of indirect taxes are also paid by the very poor, even if they don’t pay income tax.

Once again, the country stands at the crossroads, make no mistake. The choice is between economic perdition through a populist/welfarist orgy per the Congress/ UPA, or a jerry-built third front plus perhaps the arriveste AAP. Or the long, arduous and ultimately rewarding road to becoming an economic powerhouse through Narendra Modi, the BJP and the NDA. The choice as usual, belongs to the people.

(1,064 words)

December 29^th, 2013

Gautam Mukherjee

Robbing Peter To Pay Paul

Robbing Peter To Pay Paul

One compelling reason for high prices of anything manufactured or processed in India is the tax component wrapped up in it at every stage from the raw materials onwards. It makes us singularly uncompetitive internationally, unless the exports are done on stripped- down and subsidised  basis.

The one exception is IT because, as many have pointed out, Government does not understand its ways well enough to cripple it. Besides, it is a ‘service’, a mind- based output, that got big before the taxation began. And it also benefits from the constantly weakening rupee, which is otherwise a barometer of a slowing and under-productive  economy.

This is, of course, in addition to the high prices of agricultural produce at retail level, which is at inflated double- digit percentages today, and hopefully in the nature of a temporary phenomenon.

Still, wastage, spoilage and transportation play a part in food prices, especially in the absence of much of a food- processing or packaging industry, or a cold chain, as do the vagaries of weather and crop yields. The percentages of spoilage and wastage are at a shocking between 30 and 50 per cent because of crude handling by rough and ready traders; and yet, the political will to modernise this vital sector, via multi-brand retailing, or any other route, has been largely absent. This, despite a third of the population below the poverty line, and 70% qualifying for food subsidies!

Elsewhere, half the price of a car for example, and half the price of a litre of petrol at the pump too is tax plus opaque/inefficient babu estimated expenses.  We are being told half- truths when the Government says prices must inevitably rise because of higher crude oil prices or even the fuel subsidy burden.

The Government, in fact, routinely collects money against one head and spends it, mostly without cost-effectiveness, on another. So petrol duties and notional expense charges may go to fund a welfare scheme. Punjab taxes may be spent in Mizoram. Mumbai, the business capital, and the source of much of the nation’s taxes, has always pointed this out for example. And many who live elsewhere, resent the amount of infrastructure spending done on the city-state of Delhi. The Government may not be arbitrary in all of this, but it is certainly non-transparent, and  the public has no say on how their taxes are spent.

And the Government itself is hugely expensive without a by- your- leave and quick at giving itself salary and perquisite hikes whenever it likes. It is gargantuan both in its size and operation, with dozens of cars, security men, officials and large houses at the disposal of every politician. It is, like the erstwhile USSR, in some danger of collapse under its own fiscal weight. Particularly, if the GDP is allowed to languish at around 4% per annum, instead of the necessary 8 to 9 per cent, while deficit financing and Government debt keeps spiraling upwards .

 Many observers from developed countries find the perquisites and processes of our Government much greater than what is permitted to them at home. And their numbers are very much smaller. We, by way of contrast, employ numerous people in permanent, pension paying jobs, and the numbers keep rising as State and Central ministries proliferate, along with other, satellite public –sector units (PSUs).

Most foreign diplomats like their experience of living on a lavish scale here, with India’s cheaper prices and undemanding ways, much better than in their own home countries. Also, India accords generous unilateral privileges to many of them, as has been illustrated by the recent reactions and reciprocal adjustments to the Khobragade Affair.

But for the aam aadmi, that every political entity is planning to benefit in this time of elections, the taxation and profligacy is getting to be a bit too much. Taxes, indirect at every step, plus direct ones, overlapping levies and so on, have grown onerous combined with inflation and high prices. And more new taxes are being continuously added and old ones are being further raised to new levels!

There is little evidence that the proceeds, always said to be in shortfall compared to targets and plans, are being spent efficiently by the State and Central Governments. Of course, this varies widely. The successful Sabarmati River clean up and beautification of the banks by way of promenades,  has reportedly cost a fraction of the endless crores poured into the Ganga clean- up over the years , the latter with near zero results.  

Many States are actually bankrupt and owe the Centre thousands of crores that will have to be written off. Almost everything run by the Government in the Centre or the States except for a clutch of monopolistic ‘navratnas’ and ‘mini-navratnas’ are functioning at a loss. How can this state of affairs be sustained indefinitely, with basic schooling, healthcare, security, nutrition, etc. all in a shambles, despite our high taxation?

Delhi’s AAP chief minister designate’s token refusals of government housing, cars, security and red beacons in Delhi is perhaps a move in the right direction. But it will take more than this kind of  populist playing to the gallery. Government accountability and efficiency, elimination of corruption and inordinate delay every step of the way must come. We need fiscal responsibility so that there is a balancing of budgets, some co-relationship between income and expenditure,  and decision- making that actually benefits the people, instead of various embedded vested interests.

There is also an urgent need for political parties to stop trying to fool the people with wild promises at election time, and turning their backs on them when elected. This might have worked with a largely illiterate rural audience in decades past, before satellite television, but not anymore. Today 40% of the electorate is urban. And very large numbers everywhere are young, aspirational people between the ages of 15 to 35.

To expect politicians out to win to avoid over-statement may be too much, so it needs to be borne in mind by the voter to not get swayed. Without voter discernment, the public cannot expect politicians to own up to any kind of accountability.

This is the real revolution of political maturity that the situation demands. But it is definitely a tall order in a country where the government, by and large, has become totally unresponsive.  The novice AAP may have unleashed a popular angst.

But now, it is for every political party, every bureaucrat and Government servant, to take its cue from this new reality, and change its ways towards a greater interactivity and responsiveness of governance.

 (1,097 words)

December 25^th, 2013

Gautam Mukherjee

Hail The Great Pretender!

Hail The Great Pretender!

The phenomenon AAP forming its government in Delhi  now, is being increasingly referred to as the ‘ B Team of the Congress Party’. While Mr. Kejriwal and friends are definitely in the fray for themselves using the aam aadmi as cloak to their daggers, there is something cynically and ruthlessly Stalinist about their ways.

And the Congress Party is equally determined to use the AAP to serve its own purposes. This has been called a ‘marriage of convenience’ between arch-opportunists. Who will best whom, the over a century- old Congress Party or the less than a year-old AAP? And how soon? It reminds one of Mr. and Mrs. Smith, the Brad Pitt/Angelina Jolie starrer, in which both husband and wife were professional assassins, with a supari each to kill the other.

The Magsaysay winner under reference and cohorts, are ever more audacious and theatrical in their amorality compared to the conventional political parties they claim to despise whenever the mood takes them.  The corruption and murky funding in AAP, rumoured  now, will probably follow the well-travelled route of political and NGO activity in this country as the wagon progresses.

With astonishing speed, matching its rise to prominence, the AAP may be on its way to becoming just another political party, long on rhetoric and short on delivery. The honesty yearning public who voted for the AAP will have, once again, to probably look elsewhere. It has happened before with the JP Movement, The VP Singh difference, the Janata Dal experiment etc. and will, no doubt happen again. This kind of political eruption comes about whenever there is popular anger against the incumbent government. AAP just happened to catch a big wave of discontent to raise itself up into power.

But for a viable difference, this country needs Growth like oxygen for its very survival. The public needs to discern between its fascination with political posturing and tamasha, and turn its gaze. It needs to tilt towards the Narendra Modi led BJP, which at least promises growth as the engine of progress. And the BJP indeed has a track record on delivering growth, both in the States it rules, and the Centre when it was in power under AB Vajpayee.  

This country desperately needs a growth rate of 9% per annum, essential if this country is not to go under, pulled down by the rising tide of people below the laughably low poverty line. It won’t be easy to double the growth rate in a hurry, but this is essentially what India needs, in order to  address most of its ills. In fact it needs 9% GDP growth for two decades in a row like China has demonstrated  from the 1980s onwards. Business, Industry, Infrastructure are all at a near standstill because of prolonged policy drift. The India story, all but over now, needs to be resuscitated urgently.

But apart from the skullduggery, the bad- faith and outright lies, and the general protesting too much, the AAP resembles the Congress to an uncanny degree. There is  its total disregard for the economy except for a desire to reduce electricity and water prices. In economic philosophy, the AAP is blatantly populist, illustrated by a whole number of wild promises that they are being tasked to deliver on now. But for populists, least concerned about the impact on the economy, arranging for largesse and poor people pleasing measures may seem like mere administrative decisions. 

Likewise, the Congress Party has been on a wild spending spree on welfarism with all spigots gushing concern for the poor. But note that most of it has come in the months leading up to the assembly and general elections. Meanwhile, the Indian economy is down on its knees with a growth rate hovering around 4% per annum, down from over 8% when UPA took over in 2004.

The AAP also goes on endlessly about corruption while taking the support of the most corrupt government ever in the history of this country, to set itself up in office! It swears that it will pass the Janlokpal Bill on priority but to what purpose? Will it probe the CWG corruption as a first order of batting?

Of course, it wouldn’t last a moment if it begins to do any such thing. The coming days will nevertheless demand that the AAP continues to pull one rabbit out of its paper caps after another. This, even as the Congress has moved, over the 10 odd days taken while AAP conducted its referendums on whether to form government, from ‘unconditional’ support, to ‘performance’ based ‘conditional’ support, that too on a ‘time-table’!

The AAP plans to control the Congress propensity to bring down its government in Delhi with frequent mass- contact programmes. But biting the very ‘hand’ that feeds is a difficult proposition at the best of times.

This AAP style - amplified by 24x7 TV News, the Press, an Internet based Social Media, is indeed a new tactic, not tried in quite this manner since Athenian times. It is something other political parties must find ways and means to counter, by conducting more constituency level programmes themselves, addressed by senior politicians too.

But with the general elections coming up shortly, and the model code of conduct kicking in within a couple of months, the AAP may find its human and financial resources stretched. There is also the psychological strain of sustaining the split- frame of needing to sleep with your purported enemy in Delhi. Having compromised its ethics early on by teaming up with Congress, the AAP may have no choice but to ally itself with Congress as the price of its survival, for the general elections also.

At least, many in the voting public are likely to think so, irrespective of what the AAP now, and in the future, says. The surprise factor may be lost, but Congress unpopularity can be transmuted into AAP popularity instead. So, this local/state reality may be comandeered to serve at the national level too.  There could also be a lot of funding and promise in it for the AAP as the Congress B Team.

The warpage of democracy into such mutations is a consequence of fractured electoral verdicts bringing forth the compulsions of coalition politics. As long as the voting public refuses to vote decisively for one side or the other, there is every chance of policy paralysis and horse- trading becoming the norm of governance.  But who does this serve, apart from the elected representatives  that are tempted to be bought and sold to make up the numbers?

(1,093 words)

December 24^th, 2013

Gautam Mukherjee

The Good Things We Expect From AAP

The Good Things We Expect From AAP

The year-end is almost upon us and a new AAP Government is finally imminent in Delhi.  While this affects just the people in the tiny city state in terms of its current anticipated writ, the AAP style politics is acting as a catalyst to the somnolence of all other parties.  And they have every intention to spread their wings during the forthcoming national elections next year.

Narendra Modi as the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate, and Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Vasundra Raje and Raman Singh may indeed be dynamic, but the BJP as a whole has not been so. It has often been criticized for being a token Opposition Party very comfortable with the loaves and fishes of privilege.

The Delhi BJP has declined to form the Government having fallen 4 seats short of a majority. It fell short of the numbers probably because of endemic and unseemly infighting among several ambitious leaders.  The AAP got the benefit, both from the anger against the Congress and the disarray in the BJP, and was able to secure larger numbers of seats than was expected.

Congress has been a cesspit of blatant corruption, nepotism, maladministration and has presided over sharp price rises. It also continues with its age old and cynical vote bank politics going back for as long as memory serves. But even the minorities are fed up of the scaremongering and non-delivery.

 Coming to the new AAP Government, likely to be sworn in on Christmas Day and BJP patriarch Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s birthday, there is room for excitement. We, who live in Delhi, except for the privatised discoms themselves, are eagerly awaiting the 50% reduction in electricity tariff in place of the next hike Mrs.  Sheila Dikshit was threatening.

 And this hike was due apparently in view of the  Rs.16, 000 crore shortfall the discoms have been claiming between their power purchase/ distribution costs and the high tariff the groaning consumer is already paying against  astronomical bills. Something is definitely wrong but Mrs Dikshit did not ever think so. And this is not counting the diesel generating costs, especially in summer and cold spells in winter. Privatisation, in this instance, has been far from cost efficient!

The discoms, oddly enough, have suddenly stopped clamouring for a hike in rates, and are rumoured to be quite worried about their books of accounts being examined for alleged ‘fudging’. Also their sympathetic champion, former Chief Minister Mrs Shiela Dikshit, is no longer in the power seat. The AAP made this item an important election issue, as did the BJP, which promised a 30% reduction. So the Delhi Vidhan Sabha as a whole has promises to fulfill in this regard.

Mr.Kejriwal, the probable Chief Minister designate, has also promised the citizens of Delhi some respite from our soaring water bills and indeed 700 litres of water per household free every day. That our water bills are bundled with rapacious sewer maintenance charges surreptitiously introduced, that do not seem to be spent on sewer maintenance at all, is another Congress administered mystery. Certainly, every sewer pipe seems to be choked. No one has ever seen them being cleaned. And the merest downpour results in flooded roads and dirty water ingress into ground floor homes.  Bundled together, water and sewer charges have risen some1100% by one estimate!

Most Delhi consumers have been paying  thousands of rupees in both water and electricity bills every month lately, and both items have now become a significant chunk of the household budget.

The big question is what will the AAP really do about these campaign promises once it forms the Government in Delhi? If it succeeds in bringing down these two tariffs, perhaps by the inevitable introduction of fresh subsidies, it will certainly earn the gratitude of Delhi’s population. This in turn will go some way to give them a boost in their ambition to emerge on the national scene as well. The people of Delhi have high hopes and if the AAP delivers, they won’t be the only ones. Conversely, they will stand exposed as loquacious, false promising politicians, no different from the rest!

None among the beneficiary aam aadmi are going to worry about how the price cuts will be squared.  But some  khaas aadmi are concerned about the viability of pulling off such reductions in tariff, if the  discoms and Delhi Jal Board books of accounts stand up to scrutiny.

But the other obsession of the AAP is likely to take priority. And this is the Janlokpal Bill. It is unclear what this will achieve in actuality when most laws, rules and regulations are flouted routinely particularly by the powerful political classes, but let us give it the benefit of the doubt. AAP also plans to regularize every unauthorized colony in Delhi left unattended in this regard by Congress.

It is also unclear how long the alliance with the venal Congress will last. Kejriwal expects it to sustain for six months, implying this is enough for the AAP to extract political mileage for the national elections and deliver on some of its promises. 

(847 words)

December 22^nd, 2013

Gautam Mukherjee

The Ugly Americans

The Ugly Americans

Twayne: “Who needs charm when you’ve got ‘em by the short hairs”- Ugly Americans- 2010.

For gratuitous insults you can’t beat the Americans. There was a famous novel (The Ugly American-1958), and movie of the same name starring Marlon Brando (1963), about the boorish behavior of Americans abroad. It was set in South East Asia, probably a fictionalised Vietnam.

It is a side of themselves that the Americans can’t seem to help or control. It does trouble some amongst them, this total lack of consideration for other people’s feelings.  JFK, a Democratic Party President like the current Black one, a beneficiary of Kennedy’s Civil Rights Movement, sent The Ugly American to all the then US Senators for them to read and sensitise themselves.  And in 2010, reflecting the same problem of obtuseness largely unchanged, you have a TV serial called The Ugly Americans; in plural. It is along the same lines, but less literary, and less geographically pointed.

And now in the Khobragade Affair in New York and other ham-handed handling and jailing of a school- girl earlier, body- searching of our former President, politicians, ambassador, actors etc.; we must adjust to the idea that Americans are willing and able to be provocatively crude and crass at home as well.

They think nothing of behaving in this inexplicable manner on shoddy homework and trumped up charges with people from an admiring and friendly nation. They insist on brazening it out instead, justifying their behavior, cheeseparing with expressions of ‘regret’, but staunchly refusing to apologise, or retreat from their confused quasi-judicial stance.

Perhaps we need to learn from others who have been systematically outraged by the Americans. It appears that the only remedy lies in treating Americans in India likewise, and handling any US rage and retaliation in a similar calibrated and desensitised manner. Some elements of the Indian media think this is a ‘conspiracy’ and deliberate act of pressure being applied on India. Why this is, if it is motivated and not just clumsy, we shall no doubt soon find out.   

The British who ran a global Empire straddling nations, cultures and races for over 200 years targeted their insolence, and knew exactly what they expected to achieve from it. At least they did, until they went into terminal decline, and gradually sank to becoming America’s ‘poodle’. So those elements of the Indian media may be proved right yet. But if this is ‘business-as-usual’, as the US suggests, then there is something very wrong in their sense of appropriate behavior.

But America manages to routinely insult and annoy people without apparently trying. The thing has become an Ugly American Syndrome. And America tries to justify it in terms of their beloved process. American management theory, a largely private sector phenomenon, is largely based on technology and process directed towards the over- arching objective of profits. In statecraft, strategic goals might well substitute profits, but only in terms of priority.

And yet, American business and industry is, and has been, failing. As has its diplomacy and administrative ability. It is only their technological ability to invent, that tremendous American R&D ingenuity, combined with massive military superiority, that is keeping it head and shoulders ahead of the rest. America doesn’t seem to care about angering people, because they feel certain they can win!

Indeed, after the cosy, chummy and somewhat collegiate ‘box-wallah’ culture of the British Raj and its aftermath, the American way, for those who remember the former style, is definitely jarring. Human beings are just another input required in the mix for American style businesses, rather than the main item. One can almost visualize people being squeezed like toothpaste or oranges, till they have nothing left in them to give. While they are retained, personnel are expected to perform against pre-set yardsticks from tight cycles of week to week, month to month and quarter to quarter, or face the music.

The whole world has become significantly Americanised to a high degree, with national characteristics subordinated to its ‘better’ profit –making ways. The Americans know best, is the prevailing thinking, given the level of success and achievement put together by essentially an immigrant culture in just 200 odd years.

After all, the US, even in decline, and with China threatening to catch up with it, is still the richest and most powerful country in the world. By way of contrast, India is probably perceived as one of the weakest and poorest, given that every country, from Mauritius and Nepal to the US, can feel free to insult and bully us at any time.

India was being flatteringly bracketed with various others for quite some time when the ‘India Story’ was in vogue; in BRICS and the G-20, but we have not kept pace. We have been losing stature throughout the last 10 years or so of UPA rule.  

Besides, India has probably failed to play the American satellite with sufficient enthusiasm, despite our current prime minister’s inordinate fondness for the US. We didn’t for example give it the large 136 fighter deal despite its intense lobbying. We are not buying its nuclear plants fast enough and laying too many indemnity conditions in case of accident. And we still have the temerity to bring up the then Union Carbide Bhopal Gas Disaster from time to time.

We have been at the receiving end of double-agent David Headley’s dastardliness in 26/11, without receiving much access to the CIA man in US custody, and very limited information- sharing to boot. Many bilateral issues receive scant reciprocity from the US. We are denied much high-technology access despite professions of a ‘special’ partnership. The old bracketing of India with Pakistan makes an occasional comeback whenever it suits the US despite the near terrorist state activity of the latter.

And now, the American State Department has chosen to favour the maid Sangeeta Richard and her family,  taking up for her salary issues, granting  her family all visas and spiriting them away to the US, to presumably give them resident status and sanctuary. And this, some three days before mounting the insulting attack on the young woman Deputy Consul General of India in New York.

And the whole thing has been conducted through one Preet Bharara, an ethnic Indian-American official with alleged political ambitions. Bharara, sometimes called ‘The Sheriff of Wall Street’, has been demonstrating a malicious zeal for targeting Indians and South Asians, including ex McKinsey boss Rajat Gupta.  Bharara has made bold to cast ‘hand in glove’ aspersions on both the Indian Police and Judiciary, without substantiating his remarks, suggesting they have been victimizing the maid and her family. Is this ethnic Indian Bharara being used as cat’s paw by higher ups in the US Government, or covering up for his own high-handedness?

Our IT industry, pro-America business houses, dependent on US business and visas, to grow, may not be very happy with this spat, but might like to remember that no business is conducted with a spirit of charity. We are hired or collaborated with because of a perceived value and need.  

Still, it is true that Infosys, amongst our biggest and best, is paying out millions of dollars in US visa- fraud fines.   So, even if we cannot do without the US, let us try to retain this new found principle of reciprocity in future, long after this Khobragade Affair passes over.

(1,228 words)

December 19^th, 2013

Gautam Mukherjee

BOOK REVIEW: Negotiation Expert

Title:                     GETTING MORE

Author:                  STUART DIAMOND

Publisher:              PORTFOLIO PENGUIN, 2010, UK

Price:                     Rs. 399/- in India

First-Class Negotiating Advice From A Professional

Reading a book on negotiating that flat-out states, and periodically repeats, that aggression in the negotiating process will mean getting less, about 75% less actually, initially seems like a paean to superhuman reasonableness. It also seems at variation to the prevalent world of power play which works to a winner- take- all approach.

But what seems to make the effort worthwhile, is how collaboration tends to increase the size of the pie. The lone-wolf may catch prey, the book argues, but the team- wolf can hunt down bigger prey. Besides, the brute force advantage is not available to most of us, either as individuals, as part of a collective, or even as citizenry of many nations.

To illustrate this from the other end of the spectrum, Diamond cites America with its $20 trillion plus in GDP and the strongest military in the world, which still cannot ensure long-term compliance using force alone. In fact, America has lost enough protracted wars such as the one in Vietnam. And the US/NATO attacks on both Iraq and Afghanistan in recent times have been far from unqualified successes. Besides, conquest, or at an individual level, rank aggression, is invariably an unpredictable and expensive business.

So Mr. Diamond advises us to be strongly goal-oriented instead. If there are many decision-makers, for example, in a corporation, they should harmonise their goals so that objectives are not in conflict with each other. It is not as important to focus on who is right, because it, a value-judgment, can often be contentious.

 And, very interestingly, Diamond advises us to be deliberately gradual and incremental in our efforts.  He uses a baseball analogy on how a player can improve his batting averages by hitting an extra ball in one game in nine, but how this can mean much better status and monetary rewards for him. Swiftness, and attempting to push through boldly towards our objectives in one fell swoop, tends to retard if not obviate the cooperation of others, and frightens them off and away from the perceived risk.

This book, Getting More, is primarily aimed at the individual, and outlines the negotiating techniques that result in better outcomes in all sorts of situations including purchases, inter-personal relationships, job interviews, office negotiations and so on.  Mr. Diamond lays the greatest emphasis on eliciting people-to-people cooperation, and advises this is best obtained by making personal connections between people.

In other words, the substance of any argument is not going to carry the day but goodwill when sparked will. He draws a pyramid in which the content or substantive issues under discussion gets just 8%, the processes 37%, and the people-to-people cooperation 55%. This, and another ‘four-quadrant’ analytical model, more management- oriented, shows Stuart Diamond’s basic approach to negotiation.

Diamond does outline cultural differences amongst people around the world, but emphasises a common humanity that can be relied upon to resolve differences. Other tools are contextualising, what Diamond calls ‘Framing’, and using already stated corporate or personal ‘Standards’, as a reference point to achieve correct balance and perspective in any negotiation. How a question is framed or reframed can greatly improve clarity and acceptability.

Getting  More is finely detailed, romping through  many every-day negotiations between parent and child, partners, dates, arranging a holiday, making a commitment etc. as well as union and business negotiations and the like. Diamond is sometimes described as ‘the world’s best negotiator’. And the ‘More’ he writes about is not always monetary in nature. It can take in a world of intangibles and unequal values that matter to the protagonists.

Diamond stresses the need to reduce the amount of emotion that enters into a negotiation because, in his opinion, it prevents clear thinking. Sometimes it is best to do this by assuaging the feelings of the other so that calm returns to the discussions.

On matters of Trust and Ethics, the stumbling blocks in the most well-intentioned negotiations, Stuart Diamond has less room to manouevre. He tends to work around these issues, with their potential to derail the process. The suggestion is that mirroring and being sympathetic towards the self-interest of the other usually ends up serving one’s own interests too.  But, this assertion does not seem quite as convincing as many other things Diamond writes.

Stuart Diamond, the author of this book and two others, plus over 2,000 articles in newspapers and magazines, teaches a course on negotiating at Wharton Business School and has consulted/advised extensively on the subject in more than 40 countries, some under the aegis of the United Nations.  He has also taught the subject at other colleges such as Columbia, NYU, USC Berkeley, Oxford and Penn Law School.  Diamond also holds a Law Degree from Harvard, an MBA from Wharton. He was also a Pulitzer Prize winning journalist with The New York Times.

(802 words)

December 17^th, 2013

Gautam Mukherjee

Myth-Making To Glory

Myth-Making To Glory

There is a coalescing of favourable opinion  with regard to a Narendra Modi led coalition in 2014 that has the endorsement of many leaders of business and industry per recent reports, and also an increasing number of  political parties in a position to choose sides.  The DMK, badly done by in the UPA, has come out to clearly say as much after the ‘semi-final’, and there are others; in Andhra Pradesh, in Maharashtra, elsewhere, making their  new leanings known. This augurs well for the country’s economic prospects because the arch-leftism of recent policy has left us limping and listing with no hope of rescue.

Indian Express Editor-in-chief Shekhar Gupta in a recent editorial wrote words to the effect that the Congress electoral pitch is failing because it is almost entirely negative. It is what right-leaning senior journalist Tavleen Singh calls the ‘lady bountiful’ approach, with both Rahul and Sonia Gandhi positioning themselves as saviours.

 The  duo see themselves as metaphorical White Knights, but  perform a badly administered and corruption-ridden  rescue act for the poverty stricken, the sick, the destitute, the fearful, the marginalized, and anyone else that can make the rest of the population  feel guilty for breathing.   By way of contrast, three consecutive term winners in Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh also run massive welfare programmes, but these actually work and benefit the populace!

But coming back to the problem, the implication, in starched white terms, is  that ‘the dynasty’ truly feels the pain and affliction of the poor and downtrodden like no other. It is a public relations stance that runs 365 days a year, helicoptering and private jetting into every nook and cranny of the country, and is meant to transcend all day- to-day politicking, processes of governance, triumphs, set-backs et al. This is the over-arching ‘High Command’  motif.

 It is exclusively directed to the third of the population near or below our quixotically defined poverty line, and any others that slip and sink into the mire by dint of evil circumstance.  These people must know who their champions are in the sarkar, is the pitch. This is then a favourite constituency, that must always stay in absolute poverty and pain, to make Congress win in perpetuity.

This abiding concern for the most downtrodden, after all,  is not only Gandhian, as in the Mohandas Karamchand version, but, of course, commendable and beyond reproach. And possibly the reason why it occupies such a consistent place in the hearts of the mightiest in the land.

The rest of the citizenry, two-thirds or so, ranging from the lower middle classes to the stratospherically rich, faced with a deafening silence on their hopes and fears from the top, should, by implication  content themselves with all the routine national pragati designed to benefit them all.

  

But is anything  constructive being done specifically for this other two-thirds? There are myriad government initiatives surely, using our taxes, and government borrowings and World Bank/IMF money; infrastructure is being upgraded all the time, job opportunities are growing, and so on. This is the business- as- usual aspect. Never mind the efficiency, or the pace, or the accountability, but no complaints are really heeded. Our rulers are busy uplifting the poorest of the poor, or so they like to  believe.

But, this very old wine in equally old bottles, being purveyed from the days of Jawarharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi,  those go nowhere ten point programmes and five point ones; and on through the season of Rajiv Gandhi  seguing into the current dispensation, is no longer resonating with anyone.

There is next to nothing in this narrative that addresses the ideas of aspiration, nothing that promises we will catch up to the civilized world anytime soon.  So anyone who is not in dire straits, says Shekhar Gupta, is not, in a sense, included. This cannot be intentional but there it is. This tear-jerking, black and white approach, might have held the interest of an impoverished nation without hope. But not that of a potentially prosperous one, and one that has seen glimpses of, and indeed experienced a slice of, what is possible after 1991.

And now, we have yet another new Mother Superior on the block, the strange and strident AAP. This outfit dodges all down to earth practicality and call to work, but lectures all and sundry endlessly on corruption. It collects loads of money from the public near and far, but positions itself as  untainted. It is not interested in finding solutions that might steal its populist thunder, and holds that the entire rest of the political class is both corrupt and venal.

Both these entities, the apparently clueless Congress, and its would-be usurper, some say the B Team of the same quantity, are nothing if they are not propagandist. They are stuck on the insulting and somewhat crazy notion that they can crest to national power on the strength of this hot-air alone . It is a strategy of myth-making to glory. It has nothing to do with intended performance, real poverty alleviation, and has no use for delivering on promises.

By way of contrast, the BJP appears more credible by the day. Senior journalist MJ Akbar recently said the moment of truth may have come while Modi was addressing the Hunkar Rally in Patna soon after the several bombs at the venue went off. NaMo ignored the bombs and calmly pointed out the real enemy was poverty and not either the Hindu or the Muslim or the differences between them.

The minorities, writes Akbar, are sick of the decades of hypocrisy and tokenism. Modi’s inclusive message makes sense to  Muslims, and large numbers are coming out to vote for the BJP. The prime ministerial candidate who was expected to polarize is actually uniting the people.

This, and not the AAP brand of grand-standing, or the divisive Congress style, is the emerging new politics. It does not promote divisive vote banks, but aspirations of all the people to live a better life, in peace, prosperity, and harmony.

It is not as if the activists have achieved nothing. But it is Anna Hazare, who has not lost his way in the murkiness of ambition. He has signaled that the LokPal Bill, currently in Parliament, is now  content acceptable to him. The AAP’s Kejriwal, sees only its shortcomings, and continues to heckle. Perhaps it is a mode of address that he has mastered like none other. But the effective new politics may not have much use for the newly emerged AAP, or the age-old Congress for that matter.

   (1,092 words)

December 15^th, 2013

Gautam Mukherjee 

The Clamorous Ones Cometh!

The Clamorous Ones Cometh!

There is an upbeat feeling in the country as well as the economy at the prospect of a BJP led NDA coalition led by Narendra Modi in May of 2014. Everyone is waiting for rescue from the decline this country finds itself in. The India Story abroad is also all but comatose.

Some say, Congress’s steep decline has quite a lot to do with the overweening policy-making influence of the unelected and Leftist/Activist National Advisory Council (NAC) chaired by Mrs. Sonia Gandhi. But, in place of the NAC on the outside, we may be contemplating the advent of the AAP on the inside, where no doubt they can be much better controlled, even if some of their number do manage to get elected and power themselves into the Lok Sabha.

But for the moment, after the spectacular semi-final showing, the FIIs and other foreign investors are off the blocks and putting in their investment bets in the expectation of market-friendly times. The Stock Market breached all-time highs after the four assembly election results were announced on the 8^th of December, and continues to hover thereabouts, and the breadth in the market is increasing at last. Quality beaten down mid-caps and small-caps are gaining in value. The rupee too is not looking too bad, although it will probably weaken to between Rs.65 and 70 to the US dollar over the next year once the US tapering begins. The broad economy cannot help but be quite soft in 2014 in the aftermath of the disastrous economic management under the UPA.

Former Chief Economic Advisor Shankar Acharya has written in the Business Standard that he expects a GDP Growth rate of between 5.5 and 6% in 2014 even though half the year will be over by the time the new Government gets going. This is better by a full percentage point or so over the expectations for this current year.  Other parameters such as the fiscal and current account deficits, foreign exchange reserves, banking health, exports, industry, agriculture, power generation etc. will also begin to get better. Inflation, which has savaged household budgets across the nation, is also expected to moderate.

But even though Congress seems to be down, if not out, the sudden credence granted to strident name-calling in the political discourse from the highly talkative AAP is something to reckon with- particularly at this election stage. Arvind Kejriwal and friends, buoyed by their ‘stunning’ debut in the Delhi elections, loudly insist there is no difference between the Congress and the BJP; one is for povertarianism, and the other for ‘crony capitalism’, in a populist pitch reminiscent of the Peronists of Argentina.

This intemperate and reckless stance is adopted by AAP, despite its initial movement under Anna Hazare receiving a measure of support from the BJP. But then, the AAP cannot be expected to look back now. The so-called ‘honest’ political space the AAP is desperate to occupy, credentials be damned, is busy exploiting the exasperation of the public with all the burdens of UPA misrule. And there is real danger here of the remedy turning out far worse than the malady. The rag-tag inexperience of the AAP, when and if tested, is likely to quickly expose its ineptitude. Nevertheless, a significant slice of the voting public in Delhi, and potentially elsewhere, seem charmed by the simplistic AAP pitch.

Now that BJP has routed Congress in the ‘semi-finals’ they too are being harshly targeted by the AAP who have begun to mock at Narendra  Modi’s ‘decisiveness’, the ‘Gujarat model’,  etc. But the AAP is resolutely dodging any and all attempts at government formation in Delhi.  It now wants to fan out to Maharashtra, Haryana, UP and other parts instead. And there are enough would-be political arrivestes clamouring to get on the band-wagon.

The BJP must guard its flanks from the constant, articulate, if half-baked attacks from this activist cum vote- getting party. The AAP, dazzled by ambition, is now avowedly keen on becoming a pressure group in Parliament!

Whatever, one wonders, has happened to the traditional Left sought to be elbowed out like this?  And the regional parties? What are they thinking of this intrusion? SP’s Mulayam did call the AAP ‘a bubble’ but we shall have to wait and see.

Meanwhile AAP has glibly labelled all other political parties ‘old style’ and venal, while the AAP preens itself as the Answer and the ‘Alternative’!

Outrageous as this may sound, the possibility of the AAP accomplishing part of this task cannot, as things stand, be dismissed out of hand.  Arvind Kejriwal and friends have demonstrated an ability to communicate effectively with the voting public. Unlike, for example, the tongue-tied and confused rambling of Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi.

But after the debacle of the ‘semi-final’ in which junior Gandhi reportedly had a big hand, Congress is planning to announce a prime ministerial candidate other than himself. And if this person can give as good as he gets, it may confuse the picture for AAP’s ambitions while reviving spirits in the Congress camp too.

There is a perceptible yearning in the hearts of the voters to receive more responsive governance and all the established parties must retool their campaigns to suit. And economically speaking the business and industry in this country, its agriculture, infrastructure development, foreign investment and so on, all long suffering, cannot afford another populist/leftist dilution of policy. The wisdom of the voter to see through an activist street movement gone ballistic is of the essence.

(915 words)

December 12^th, 2013

Gautam Mukherjee

Stunning and Stunned

Stunning and Stunned

The frustration with the corruption and maladministration of the UPA Government and the Congress Party has catapulted a shrill street movement to the portals of the Delhi Vidhan Sabha.

The AAP has wrested 28 seats from the stalwarts of the three-term Congress Government . And its Chief Minister of 15 years has lost by thousands of votes to a political novice.  Even while the Congress tally has fallen to a forlorn single digit.

The BJP has been left relatively unscathed, both in terms of vote share and wins, though the momentum of the negative vote against Congress has left it four short of a majority, and created a ‘hung’ Assembly.

And once there, on the threshold of power, exactly 8 seats short of a majority, the very number the Congress has been reduced to, Arvind Kejriwal and his cohorts in the AAP are at a loss about what to do with their unexpected success. They have no experience of governance whatsoever and no ability to deliver on their extravagant campaign promises. That so many people in the city state have voted for them at all is something of a sociological phenomenon that goes well beyond the merits, appeal and strategy of the Aam Aadmi Party.

The BJP has done spectacularly well in four state elections.  Two Chief Ministers, in Chattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, have won their third consecutive terms each, and a third, former CM too, has won by a landslide, the biggest ever in Rajasthan’s electoral history.

However, In Delhi, where  BJP is also the leading political entity, it  is not willing to form a minority government. Without the responsibility of governance, the AAP would find itself in its natural element sitting in the Opposition. But the BJP has no intention of affording the AAP such an opportunity. This more so, because the national elections are just five months away.

Therefore, letting the AAP denigrate it in Delhi will be harmful to the BJP’s own bright prospects of capturing power at the Centre. Sitting it out under President’s Rule for six months or so will  probably work much better for it. Of course, the same terms will be available to the AAP, other punters, and indeed the Congress Party, too. But BJP may have the advantage, if the current momentum takes it to  the top. And if the Election Commission decides to hold the two polls simultaneously in Delhi.

The AAP brass is sitting on the horns of a dilemma. If it does not offer steady and unwavering support to the BJP, inclusive of participating in the Government, it cannot be stable in the Opposition. Because the longevity of this Assembly would be deeply suspect, even if BJP did agree to form the Government.

If AAP forms the Government itself, taking Congress support, the ‘tail’, in this instance, would effectively wag the dog. It would also substantially tarnish its impossibly contrived ‘pure’ image. It would  further trash many of the very premises based on which the AAP was elected. Besides, any AAP led Government would not last an hour longer than the Congress decrees.

The BJP also cannot hope to be stable either with AAP ‘outside’ support, which can, after all, be withdrawn at any time. Likewise, even if it cobbles together four more supporters to create a razor thin majority. The public of Delhi, it seems, has effectively voided this election, except for the signal service of turfing out the over-stayed Congress Government.

But AAP may never find itself this close to enjoying power in the capital again. Six months or so from now, the situation may be very different. Every other party will take the AAP challenge far more seriously for a start. The AAP, fraying at the edges already in terms of honesty and probity, may well fall apart in the interim, as a party cannot be sustained for long on promises alone.

Mrs Kiran Bedi has rightly said that the BJP and AAP should find common ground to give meaning to the electoral verdict in Delhi. Mr. Kejriwal has held out so far, stubbornly repeating that he will have no truck with either the BJP or the Congress. But joining hands with the BJP is indeed the best option open to him towards providing the people of Delhi a stable Government.

Horse- trading of other sorts, such as Mr.  Prashant Bhushan’s demand that the BJP should guarantee the passage of a Janhit Lokpal Bill as the price of support, suffers when it is thrown out via the media. This is the contour-line of inexperience of course, and perhaps not even meant to be seriously regarded.

The point is that the BJP loses least by waiting it out to a repoll, because the prevailing wind is likely to favour its prospects. Can the AAP be quite so sure? Besides, if it wishes to make a national debut as well, it will need to raise massive resources, create infrastructure and put personnel on the ground, all of it yesterday. And without Delhi figuring in its corner, the AAP willfully returns itself to the starting gate. The chances of history repeating itself reduce sharply once the surprise factor is removed from the political arena.

The Congress Party has promised to learn from the success of the AAP. THE BJP and other parties must be doing its own rejigging. Various UPA allies are citing weak leadership and clumsy strategising as the reason for the hard fall of the Congress.  Nevertheless, this old and experienced  Party will at least try to regroup, though the Gandhi family leadership is unlikely to be relinquished. This is today probably its biggest non-negotiable problem, because the Gandhi family has stopped being able to capture the votes.

The AAP could benefit to some extent from the vacuum being created by the Congress, but Narendra Modi and the BJP has a considerable head start, and the regional parties, strong in their  respective citadels, are not likely to give way to any AAP thrust.

The main plank of corruption is well received by the public, whether Narendra Modi is citing it, or if Arvind Kejriwal is wanting to rid the nation of it instantly. But Arvind Kejriwal and his rag-tag band have no experience of governance. Their rhetoric is untested and untried. That the people of Delhi have been so ‘stunningly’ swayed by the speechifying is itself astonishing. But to expect the nation to take to the bristly broom and sweep  away all experienced governance is a doubly astounding thought.

Narendra Modi, let us remember, is not corrupt; and he certainly knows how to govern.

(1,098 words)

December 1`10^th, 2013

Gautam Mukherjee

Connect and Disconnect

Connect and Disconnect

Listening to Mrs. Sonia Gandhi and her son Rahul  speaking of introspection and learning from the AAP after the humiliating drubbing the Congress has just received, one is reminded of Mr. Rajiv Gandhi’s  old  “Jeetenge ya Loosenge” speech. Vipassana, the Yoga of silence, has also acquired a bouquet afresh thanks to AAP’s Kejriwal.

There was, in all of what the mother and son said to the media, no taking of personal responsibility at all, for what Prannoy Roy of NDTV repeatedly called a ‘Congress debacle’. This despite Rahul Gandhi’s hand-picking of candidates and master-minding of strategy that led to this latest rout.

That Rajiv Gandhi speech remembered came shortly before he and his Party were shunted out from power having squandered the biggest majority anyone had ever been given in Indian parliamentary history. It was, of course at a scary variance with reality, underlined with a storm of corruption over Bofors, that has only grown since then to seemingly epic proportions.

This feeling of something in the ‘High Command’s’ political shuffle gone obsolete, something wrong with this pyramidal and imperial structure itself, that stifles, and is driving the Congress Party relentlessly towards extinction, persists.  Only now, the process towards self-destruction is accelerating.  It is in the DNA of the Congress Party, its stubborn refusal to rise to the challenge despite the words, that is under threat.  

Vice President Rahul Gandhi and his mother, Party President Sonia Gandhi, may not realize this, but the aam aadmi they professedly court has and for some time now. They see the disconnect, and are not turned by any amount of freebies, subsidies and grants. They take it but do not think it substitutes for bad governance. And the same public won’t wink at the corruption any more either. They have refused to vote for the Congress Party despite the inducements.

There is, in this out-dated style, too much echo of the ‘Rajas’ of yore addressing their ‘Prajas’, with profoundly comic whiffs of noblesse oblige.

Here is a ruling dynasty displaying with oblivious aplomb, that it does not have a clue. And many spokespersons, each chanting that state elections are not national elections. And, if these  dedicated Congress ‘Prajas’ are abroad at all, it is because they are drawn from those who eat and have eaten a great deal of Congress salt, and therefore cannot freely speak their compromised minds.

onnect and DisconnectThe main lesson from the four state Assembly Elections just concluded is the role of a direct connect between the winners and the people. It is the old Vox Populi Vox Dei axiom that the imperial Romans, Caesars and Senators all, tried so hard to remember.  

Did the AAP fluke this? There is every chance that it did, and only time will tell if they can match action to words over their years as the principal Opposition in Delhi.

The BJP, in terminal drift after years of only holding power in some states and enjoying the role of a comfortable Opposition in Delhi, was both unified and focused to the task of winning. It was done, by the galvanising influence of Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi.

This happened quickly, and acted like a tonic, ever since Modi was named to the role. Mr. Modi however, had already got to work after becoming the BJP’s Chief Election Strategist some couple of months before that, a job now given to Party President Rajnath Singh who works very well with him.  

Modi’s choice of a ‘clean’ Dr. Harsh Vardhan in Delhi put an end to the factional fighting in the BJP. This, combined and backed by some strenuous campaigning over the last month by most BJP stalwarts, including several rallies addressed by NaMo himself, has allowed it to just about scrape through! Delhi is a prestige election. And BJP has done well to recapture power here after 15 long years.  

The same NaMo leg- up has probably seen Dr Raman Singh to his narrow win in Chattisgarh, much hampered by the embarrassing Maoist massacre of Congress leaders in Bastar.

Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan have done BJP proud via the efforts of Mr. Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Ms. Vasundara Raje. Raje has emphatically stated that the NaMo Effect or Wave has helped her a great deal. At any rate the magnitude of her win is nothing short of spectacular. And Mr. Chouhan has displayed his characteristic humility in victory, his most commendable hat-trick of a win. Narendra Modi , on his part,certainly did not neglect MP either.

The phenomenal rise of the AAP in just nine months from scratch, launched from Anna Hazare’s activist platform, is a happening probably bigger than the party itself. Sociologists and political theorists will take time to analyse all its ingredients. Is this a new phenomenon in Indian politics or a passing thing? At present,  Mr Arvind Kejriwal and his instant band of heroes are looking just as surprised if a little more delighted than the rest of us.

Having said that, clearly the AAP has struck near gold, tapping into a rich popular seam of yearning for honesty, probity and responsiveness in governance largely absent in the political landscape. Rahul Gandhi may have said something true enough, but his fat-cat party cannot make the efforts and sacrifices of an AAP. At least an AAP on the stumps, though it was already starting to fray at the edges.

It is true that the AAP has conducted an idealistic and somewhat naïve campaign, more like a student campus election, rather than one for the national capital. But this is a direct pitch that masses of people found easy to understand and connect with. There were shades of Obama’s first term campaign in it as well. It has resonated with both the masses and a large slice of the classes too.  The word ‘stunning’ is used by commentator after commentator to describe the AAP’s success. But what comes next? And can they live up to their own professed standards?

In one very important sense, the Modi Wave nationally and the advent of the AAP onto the Delhi political scene does have something in common. NaMo connects with the people and talks about matters that both interest and concern them. He inspires and excites their aspirations. He is a wonderful orator, a doer, and people are very tired of inertia and false promises. He is honest, risen from humble beginnings, a proven quantity at governance, a business and industry favourite, strong on governance and national security. He is a patriot but very fond of technology. He thrives in adversity and has shown incredible grit.

Arvind Kejriwal is also a good speaker, who connected on corruption, electricity bills, price rise and so forth. He failed at his old politics attempt to woo Muslims. Still, he and his inexperienced cohorts have been swept into the Vidhan Sabha on the bristles of his trusty broom symbol.  Mint said these brooms can indeed fly, but we shall have to see.

The Lotus of the BJP is poised to bloom nationally. This four-state win was indeed the semi-final, though Congress is praying that there is a disconnect, and that the national elections will be different.

(1,195 words)

December 8^th, 2013

Gautam Mukherjee

The Hand's Favourite Communal Bogey

The Hand’s Favourite Communal Bogey

The Congress Party symbol is the open palm, presumably to signal transparency. But more often than not, its actions, manipulations and stratagems are the work of a surreptitious ‘hidden hand’. This serves to keep the poor forever poor, communal differences ever- alive, maligns its political opponents using fair means and foul, and even attempts to subvert the intent of the Indian Constitution itself.

Congress, true to form, is once again on the attack. This time it is to curb the power of the States in our ‘quasi-federal’ structure as laid out in the Constitution. And this sort of thing is becoming more desperate and brazen of late as its old ways of dividing and ruling are failing. The UPA, led by it, is collapsing under the sheer weight of its bad governance, its monumental corruption, and the sickeningly long list of unfulfilled promises.

And because a largely young electorate is fed up with its old- style politics as usual, in favour of Narendra Modi’s soaring vision and patriotism that appeals to their aspirations.

The UPA Government has a peculiar and decidedly cynical attitude to law and order. It does not hesitate to play politics with it though. Many find its stance inexplicably ‘soft’-particularly when it comes to Islamic terrorism. The Government also displays a dithering submissiveness when it comes to national security, often threatened by both Pakistan and China.

But even as the country is rendered insecure and vulnerable under its bad governance, the Congress, at the apex of the UPA, seems unconcerned but ever-ready to raise the old ‘secular-communal bogey’, and even  more so at election time.

The long gestating Communal Violence Bill, languishing for ten years in the works, is the latest attempt to stir unnecessary communal passions. This, months before general elections, and just as it is facing an electoral  loss in four state elections. The Congress however blandly says it is trotting the Bill out now to build ‘consensus’ on ways to protect the minorities in the face of violence.

But this is seen as bogus by many other parties. They feel the effect is more likely to further ‘polarise’ people and political view-points. The timing of the Bill’s introduction for discussion is seen as an attempt to paint any who oppose it, even in its present half-baked form, as anti-minority. Congress wants to play to the gallery and portray itself as a champion of the minorities for electoral gains.  It is thought to be yet another naked attempt to continue with the Congress’s long-standing brand of vote-bank politics.

This has come after trying to rush through an Ordinance only weeks ago which was willing to accept convicted criminals in Parliament and as candidates in elections. That effort came in the face of the express objections of even the Supreme Court! It was forced to be withdrawn on informal advice from the President of India, though Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi also attempted a dramatic turn with it.  But here is the Congress trying to twist things to suit itself once more.

BJP has reacted sharply, and wants a full-fledged debate on the Bill, as do several other parliamentary political parties. Prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi’s views on it also are very clear. Modi sees it as a rush job. He has lost no time in writing to the prime minister on the first day of the Winter Session of Parliament, calling it:  “ill-conceived, poorly drafted and a recipe for disaster”.

The SP, BSP, AIDMK, BJD, the Left and others also object to the Bill in its present form.  Mr. Sitaram Yechury of the Left thinks it is too broad in its provenance. Many others think it needs major amendments. The Left has also said it encroaches on the governance of the States of the Union, apart from creating a basis for politicising almost any difference of opinion between communities.

The Congress, in the face of this firestorm of protest, is seemingly back-tracking already, with Parliamentary Affairs Minister Kamal Nath saying it is hardly ready to be tabled, has not come yet to the Cabinet etc.  

The Congress Party, already on the back-foot for its failure to foment fear in the minds of India’s Muslim citizens this time, will push the Communal Violence Bill as far as it can. Noted Lawyer Mr. Ram Jethmalani has also sharply criticised the Bill, and called it a ‘divisive’ piece of intended legislation.  

Modi, enjoying increasing popularity with the electorate, had, in a rally in Jammu some days ago, also called for a debate on the contentious Article 370 thereby breaching the taboo on it, and Chief Minister Omar Abdullah, most threatened by the notion, has agreed to join the debate.

This, while Sunanda Pushkar, also Mrs Shashi Tharoor of the Congress Party, has expressed her support for Modi’s concerns about the interpretation and use of the Article. Congress however continues to run scared of the very notion.

The BJP has always said Article 370 should be scrapped. It quotes Jawaharlal Nehru from time to time because he said it was ‘temporary’ when it was first imposed, and that J&K should become a full-fledged state of the Union in due course.

The Congress Party needs to come to terms with the idea that it has lost its credibility, and with this  devastating fact, the old certainties are changing. This makes it very difficult for it to manipulate its desired outcomes in the remaining months it will be in power. And any amount of playing ostrich in the sand won’t make the impending ouster go away.

(928 words)

December 5^th, 2013

Gautam Mukherjee