The Clamorous Ones Cometh!

The Clamorous Ones Cometh!

There is an upbeat feeling in the country as well as the economy at the prospect of a BJP led NDA coalition led by Narendra Modi in May of 2014. Everyone is waiting for rescue from the decline this country finds itself in. The India Story abroad is also all but comatose.

Some say, Congress’s steep decline has quite a lot to do with the overweening policy-making influence of the unelected and Leftist/Activist National Advisory Council (NAC) chaired by Mrs. Sonia Gandhi. But, in place of the NAC on the outside, we may be contemplating the advent of the AAP on the inside, where no doubt they can be much better controlled, even if some of their number do manage to get elected and power themselves into the Lok Sabha.

But for the moment, after the spectacular semi-final showing, the FIIs and other foreign investors are off the blocks and putting in their investment bets in the expectation of market-friendly times. The Stock Market breached all-time highs after the four assembly election results were announced on the 8^th of December, and continues to hover thereabouts, and the breadth in the market is increasing at last. Quality beaten down mid-caps and small-caps are gaining in value. The rupee too is not looking too bad, although it will probably weaken to between Rs.65 and 70 to the US dollar over the next year once the US tapering begins. The broad economy cannot help but be quite soft in 2014 in the aftermath of the disastrous economic management under the UPA.

Former Chief Economic Advisor Shankar Acharya has written in the Business Standard that he expects a GDP Growth rate of between 5.5 and 6% in 2014 even though half the year will be over by the time the new Government gets going. This is better by a full percentage point or so over the expectations for this current year.  Other parameters such as the fiscal and current account deficits, foreign exchange reserves, banking health, exports, industry, agriculture, power generation etc. will also begin to get better. Inflation, which has savaged household budgets across the nation, is also expected to moderate.

But even though Congress seems to be down, if not out, the sudden credence granted to strident name-calling in the political discourse from the highly talkative AAP is something to reckon with- particularly at this election stage. Arvind Kejriwal and friends, buoyed by their ‘stunning’ debut in the Delhi elections, loudly insist there is no difference between the Congress and the BJP; one is for povertarianism, and the other for ‘crony capitalism’, in a populist pitch reminiscent of the Peronists of Argentina.

This intemperate and reckless stance is adopted by AAP, despite its initial movement under Anna Hazare receiving a measure of support from the BJP. But then, the AAP cannot be expected to look back now. The so-called ‘honest’ political space the AAP is desperate to occupy, credentials be damned, is busy exploiting the exasperation of the public with all the burdens of UPA misrule. And there is real danger here of the remedy turning out far worse than the malady. The rag-tag inexperience of the AAP, when and if tested, is likely to quickly expose its ineptitude. Nevertheless, a significant slice of the voting public in Delhi, and potentially elsewhere, seem charmed by the simplistic AAP pitch.

Now that BJP has routed Congress in the ‘semi-finals’ they too are being harshly targeted by the AAP who have begun to mock at Narendra  Modi’s ‘decisiveness’, the ‘Gujarat model’,  etc. But the AAP is resolutely dodging any and all attempts at government formation in Delhi.  It now wants to fan out to Maharashtra, Haryana, UP and other parts instead. And there are enough would-be political arrivestes clamouring to get on the band-wagon.

The BJP must guard its flanks from the constant, articulate, if half-baked attacks from this activist cum vote- getting party. The AAP, dazzled by ambition, is now avowedly keen on becoming a pressure group in Parliament!

Whatever, one wonders, has happened to the traditional Left sought to be elbowed out like this?  And the regional parties? What are they thinking of this intrusion? SP’s Mulayam did call the AAP ‘a bubble’ but we shall have to wait and see.

Meanwhile AAP has glibly labelled all other political parties ‘old style’ and venal, while the AAP preens itself as the Answer and the ‘Alternative’!

Outrageous as this may sound, the possibility of the AAP accomplishing part of this task cannot, as things stand, be dismissed out of hand.  Arvind Kejriwal and friends have demonstrated an ability to communicate effectively with the voting public. Unlike, for example, the tongue-tied and confused rambling of Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi.

But after the debacle of the ‘semi-final’ in which junior Gandhi reportedly had a big hand, Congress is planning to announce a prime ministerial candidate other than himself. And if this person can give as good as he gets, it may confuse the picture for AAP’s ambitions while reviving spirits in the Congress camp too.

There is a perceptible yearning in the hearts of the voters to receive more responsive governance and all the established parties must retool their campaigns to suit. And economically speaking the business and industry in this country, its agriculture, infrastructure development, foreign investment and so on, all long suffering, cannot afford another populist/leftist dilution of policy. The wisdom of the voter to see through an activist street movement gone ballistic is of the essence.

(915 words)

December 12^th, 2013

Gautam Mukherjee