Stunning and Stunned

Stunning and Stunned

The frustration with the corruption and maladministration of the UPA Government and the Congress Party has catapulted a shrill street movement to the portals of the Delhi Vidhan Sabha.

The AAP has wrested 28 seats from the stalwarts of the three-term Congress Government . And its Chief Minister of 15 years has lost by thousands of votes to a political novice.  Even while the Congress tally has fallen to a forlorn single digit.

The BJP has been left relatively unscathed, both in terms of vote share and wins, though the momentum of the negative vote against Congress has left it four short of a majority, and created a ‘hung’ Assembly.

And once there, on the threshold of power, exactly 8 seats short of a majority, the very number the Congress has been reduced to, Arvind Kejriwal and his cohorts in the AAP are at a loss about what to do with their unexpected success. They have no experience of governance whatsoever and no ability to deliver on their extravagant campaign promises. That so many people in the city state have voted for them at all is something of a sociological phenomenon that goes well beyond the merits, appeal and strategy of the Aam Aadmi Party.

The BJP has done spectacularly well in four state elections.  Two Chief Ministers, in Chattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, have won their third consecutive terms each, and a third, former CM too, has won by a landslide, the biggest ever in Rajasthan’s electoral history.

However, In Delhi, where  BJP is also the leading political entity, it  is not willing to form a minority government. Without the responsibility of governance, the AAP would find itself in its natural element sitting in the Opposition. But the BJP has no intention of affording the AAP such an opportunity. This more so, because the national elections are just five months away.

Therefore, letting the AAP denigrate it in Delhi will be harmful to the BJP’s own bright prospects of capturing power at the Centre. Sitting it out under President’s Rule for six months or so will  probably work much better for it. Of course, the same terms will be available to the AAP, other punters, and indeed the Congress Party, too. But BJP may have the advantage, if the current momentum takes it to  the top. And if the Election Commission decides to hold the two polls simultaneously in Delhi.

The AAP brass is sitting on the horns of a dilemma. If it does not offer steady and unwavering support to the BJP, inclusive of participating in the Government, it cannot be stable in the Opposition. Because the longevity of this Assembly would be deeply suspect, even if BJP did agree to form the Government.

If AAP forms the Government itself, taking Congress support, the ‘tail’, in this instance, would effectively wag the dog. It would also substantially tarnish its impossibly contrived ‘pure’ image. It would  further trash many of the very premises based on which the AAP was elected. Besides, any AAP led Government would not last an hour longer than the Congress decrees.

The BJP also cannot hope to be stable either with AAP ‘outside’ support, which can, after all, be withdrawn at any time. Likewise, even if it cobbles together four more supporters to create a razor thin majority. The public of Delhi, it seems, has effectively voided this election, except for the signal service of turfing out the over-stayed Congress Government.

But AAP may never find itself this close to enjoying power in the capital again. Six months or so from now, the situation may be very different. Every other party will take the AAP challenge far more seriously for a start. The AAP, fraying at the edges already in terms of honesty and probity, may well fall apart in the interim, as a party cannot be sustained for long on promises alone.

Mrs Kiran Bedi has rightly said that the BJP and AAP should find common ground to give meaning to the electoral verdict in Delhi. Mr. Kejriwal has held out so far, stubbornly repeating that he will have no truck with either the BJP or the Congress. But joining hands with the BJP is indeed the best option open to him towards providing the people of Delhi a stable Government.

Horse- trading of other sorts, such as Mr.  Prashant Bhushan’s demand that the BJP should guarantee the passage of a Janhit Lokpal Bill as the price of support, suffers when it is thrown out via the media. This is the contour-line of inexperience of course, and perhaps not even meant to be seriously regarded.

The point is that the BJP loses least by waiting it out to a repoll, because the prevailing wind is likely to favour its prospects. Can the AAP be quite so sure? Besides, if it wishes to make a national debut as well, it will need to raise massive resources, create infrastructure and put personnel on the ground, all of it yesterday. And without Delhi figuring in its corner, the AAP willfully returns itself to the starting gate. The chances of history repeating itself reduce sharply once the surprise factor is removed from the political arena.

The Congress Party has promised to learn from the success of the AAP. THE BJP and other parties must be doing its own rejigging. Various UPA allies are citing weak leadership and clumsy strategising as the reason for the hard fall of the Congress.  Nevertheless, this old and experienced  Party will at least try to regroup, though the Gandhi family leadership is unlikely to be relinquished. This is today probably its biggest non-negotiable problem, because the Gandhi family has stopped being able to capture the votes.

The AAP could benefit to some extent from the vacuum being created by the Congress, but Narendra Modi and the BJP has a considerable head start, and the regional parties, strong in their  respective citadels, are not likely to give way to any AAP thrust.

The main plank of corruption is well received by the public, whether Narendra Modi is citing it, or if Arvind Kejriwal is wanting to rid the nation of it instantly. But Arvind Kejriwal and his rag-tag band have no experience of governance. Their rhetoric is untested and untried. That the people of Delhi have been so ‘stunningly’ swayed by the speechifying is itself astonishing. But to expect the nation to take to the bristly broom and sweep  away all experienced governance is a doubly astounding thought.

Narendra Modi, let us remember, is not corrupt; and he certainly knows how to govern.

(1,098 words)

December 1`10^th, 2013

Gautam Mukherjee