The Wheel Of Fortune

The Wheel Of Fortune

The people who spoke or wrote of Narendra Modi as a potential prime minister five years ago were few and far between. These futurists saw the flaws in a twisted definition of an essentially self-serving and vote-bank building secularism. The inequity in this, the subversion of the constitutional intent, was lost on most, because ‘it’ was accepted as conventional wisdom having been so oft repeated. It was regarded, not just as a Nehruvian shibboleth, but the very idea of India!

So this intrepid minority spoke up in favour of another vision of a Modi defined secularism, that spoke not of victimhood and entitlement, but of equal opportunity for all without fear or favour. And this vanguard pointed out its truth and efficacy being demonstrated in the form of greater prosperity for all the people of Gujarat.

Modi stood then, as he does now, not so much for the building of the Ram Mandir at Ayodhya, or even the abolition of Article 370 in Kashmir, but surging development and growth. Gujarat was posting 12% GDP figures year on year including a 10% growth in agriculture against a national figure that languishes at between 2 to 3 % per annum.   

Modi was already the epitome of the success of a right-of-centre vision, uncluttered by religious and majoritarian overtones, that has now become quite fashionable. The old Hindutva surge after LK Advani’s Rath Yatra to Ayodhya had indeed given the BJP under Atal Bihari Vajpayee a spectacular full term in power. But the Vajpayee Government was marked by its moderation, inclusiveness, pragmatism, and tremendous economic progress. Ideology was firmly and consciously put on the back burner.

But many people, thanks to persistent and fear-mongering Congress propaganda, actually lumped Modi together with a vigorous Hindutva agenda. So, only a few saw the NaMo emphasis on development politics and efficient governance to the exclusion of other notions, at first.

The NDA lost the 2004 election, despite a brilliant innings under Prime Minister Vajpayee, because the Congress managed to portray the ‘India Shining’ poll campaign to mean a cold economic growth without jobs for the masses. And Congress thought it had its winning formula with welfarism for the poor, waivers of farm loans and the like, particularly when it came to power unexpectedly after 8 years in the wilderness. And the economy be damned. It worked for them once again in 2009, confronted by a disunited, fractious, uncharismatic and confused BJP. This convinced Sonia and now Rahul Gandhi that wefarism was the best way to continue.

Of course, the Atal B ihari Vajpayee government’s achievements could not be brushed aside in 2009 either. But the BJP’s clear loss for a second time had a precious few thinking of the Gujarat Chief Minister as a potential BJP/NDA prime minister the next time around.

UPA II, led by the Leftist views of Sonia Gandhi’s extra constitutional N AC (National Advisory Council), went economically downhill almost from the start. The global economic crisis from 2008 did not help, but the singular lack of imagination and fresh ideas of our Government destroyed the economy, compounded by the massive and unprecedented corruption.

Vajpayee’s legacy stands undiminished after all this time. With its consistently high growth rates, the successful handling of the Kargil War, the efforts to improve relations with Pakistan, the achieving of nuclear weapons status, and the initiation of the Golden Quadrilateral roadways, it contrasted very favourably with the horrors of UPA II.

And good governance is still alive and well in the BJP ruled states of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh certainly, and to some extent in Karnataka, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh, while they were under BJP rule too.   And Vajpayee’s demonstrated ability to hold a large and disparate coalition together is not forgotten either.

Still, conventional wisdom, influenced by the majoritarian view of that twisted secularism, pigeon-holed Modi, for as long as it could, as a polarising figure with no appeal outside Gujarat.  So it was commonplace for Narendra Modi to be routinely vilified, demonised and abused in print and on TV. And anyone who had the temerity to back Modi was facilely labelled a Fascist.

LK Advani, the patriarch, Modi’s staunch backer in those days, knew what it felt like to be vilified. Advani had been widely blamed, without substance, for guiding the bringing down of the Babri Masjid. But today, the wheel having turned full circle, the octogenarian Advani is regarded as a moderate.

The young voter on the rolls today, is in a 65% majority, and largely unconcerned with ideology. It wants decisive leadership modernisation, infrastructure development, and economic progress above all else. This constituency of aspiration has warmed to Modi’s constant emphasis on development, growth and jobs.

The public intellectual today is witnessing a changed BJP and finding very little to complain about in any objective way. The old outrage at the ‘idea of India’ being threatened is not relevant anymore. All Gujarat’s accomplishments in the economic area are a template of what is being offered by NaMo to all the people of this country. And he is more than ready to take the Vajpayee legacy of moderation and good governance forward at the Centre.

Modi is a person who gains through the adversities he is subjected to because of his considerable personal fortitude and patience. Five years ago, there were very few advocates of a right-of-centre solution to the problems of this nation. Today it seems like an idea whose time has come.  

(911 words)

March 29^th, 2014

Gautam Mukherjee

The Modi Surge To Power

The Modi Surge to Power Will Bring Great Prosperity To India And Friends

The Economic Freedom Survey conducted recently by economist Bibek Debroy and others pointed out the most impressive fact that Gujarat has enjoyed 12%  GDP growth year on year from 2005 to 2013,  that is,for nine straight years. Of course, Narendra Modi has been Chief Minister for longer, but this year’s Survey only covered 2005 to 2013.

This spectacular economic performance is the truth of the matter, despite the Manmohan Singh PMO trying to blemish the fact by stating Gujarat’s GDP grew only at 9.52% this year.

What was the senior PMO official, one Pankaj Pachauri, the PM’s Media Advisor, no less, thinking? Where did he glean his information when the august CSO (Central Statistical Office) data is there for the referencing?

This 12% plus GDP rate, actually 12.69% for this fiscal, in Gujarat, compares favourably with the numbers from China, still the fastest growing economy in the world. If Narendra Modi and the NDA, given the opportunity by the voters of India, can turn out this kind of number nationally for the next 10 years, India could actually eliminate poverty as defined by the quixotic and out of touch Planning Commission; that too within a decade.

This will mean the rescue and dignifying of millions of people, over 300 million, lifting them out of their hand to mouth misery. And it would be done by creating productive assets, jobs, trade, industry, agricultural modernisation and value addition, health, education, technology, and infrastructure. And not by Congress-style debilitating welfare, rooted in another era. And with no plan whatsoever on how to pay for the massive hand-outs besides resorting to ever more deficit financing which steadily bankrupts the nation.

The BJP manifesto, coming soon, after a disappointing one replete with even more welfarism from the Congress, reportedly pledges the creation of tens of millions of new jobs and up to 300 new ‘smart’ cities to house them out of.

The rudderless policy making of the UPA is illustrated by the bitter truth that it has reduced the national GDP to less than 4.5% when we need a minimum of near double digits to stay abreast of our planned economic commitments, let alone the non-budgeted expenditure. So much so, that the incumbent Finance Minister, P Chidambaram, has confided that it would have been better, in retrospect, to create jobs rather than promote massive, and very leaky, welfare programmes for the poor.

Narendra Modi’s GDP accomplishment by way of contrast, is downright stellar. The magnitude of such a potential achievement on the national stage, with a trebling of the current GDP, will transform this country. Besides, Gujarat qualifies as the economically freest state amongst the top 20 large states considered in the Survey, for the second year in a row, with Bihar, at the bottom of the pile. According to the Economic Freedom Survey, Bihar received a 15 fold increase in Plan spending, financed almost entirely by central transfers over the past eight years, despite being part of the NDA for most of it.

The UPA’s sorry economic management has reduced FDI to a merest trickle. And it was another UPA Minister, Jairam Ramesh, who has publicly lamented that the retrospective taxation that the UPA inflicted has done immense damage to the country’s reputation amongst foreign investors.

There is also a seemingly lopsided and selective approach to corporations accused of wrong-doing under the UPA. Of course, the judiciary is technically independent of the legislative and executive arms of government, and there is no case being made out that this is not so.

Still, it is noticeable that a man of the stature of  Subrata Roy of Sahara, rumoured to have taken a stand against the elevation of Mrs Sonia Gandhi to the prime ministership along with Mulayam Singh of the Samajwadi Party, those many years ago, continues to languish in jail for a month, with draconian strictures applied to his bail conditions.

At the same time, the layman, untutored in legal niceties, may well wonder how Vijay Mallya does not seem to  be under the lash at all. This, despite defaults on massive public debt incurred by Kingfisher Airlines under his executive watch,  and Mallya’s reportedly personal guarantees on some of it.

Likewise, not much has happened by way of retribution to the many allegedly involved in dozens of scams under UPA rule. Indeed many have been brazenly shielded, others even rewarded. The ones who were not so lucky are A Raja and Kanimozhi Karunanidhi, both of the DMK, in the context of the 2G scam.

Getting away from this mysterious morass of the past to look at a likely future, the number of Indian companies with $1 billion or more in net income has risen slightly. There are now 18 companies that qualify in FY 14. This is not a huge number in international terms, given the thousands of publicly listed companies in India, besides the privately owned ones, but augurs well nevertheless for the future.

Citibank’s Adam Gilmour, Head of Asia-Pacific Currency and Subsidiary Sales, has stated there could be a 35% rise in the value of the rupee to around Rs.40 to the US dollar, if Modi forms the next government. If Gilmour is broadly right, and many others have predicted a stronger rupee  too, it will bring more companies into the billion dollar income club. Besides, it will attract a flood of foreign investment and substantially widen and strengthen our economic foundations.

(901 words)

March 27^th, 2014

Gautam Mukherjee

Talents Vs Entitlement

Talent And Merit Vs  Sense Of Entitlement

There is a current ‘public service’ type TV advertisement for a brand of motorcycle, that exhorts the viewer to vote for the talented in the forthcoming general elections. This is in itself a departure, this new talk of talent and merit rather than the old caste, creed, religion, and rural/urban divides as determinants. This strikes a chord with some, even as a lot of boorish behaviour is on display, from our craven and quite unselfconscious netas.  

The economy, the polity, the security, indeed the urgent issues that confront the nation, are totally ignored in the melee, like a subset of parliamentary behaviour in the ‘house’ these days.

In the middle of ‘ticket’ distribution season, several prospectives are not happy when their hopes are dashed, either because they don’t get a ticket at all, or are asked to contest from a seat/constituency not to their liking. The jockeying and lobbying is intense, but the worst tantrums seem to come from  accomplished and learned elders, often former pillars, founders, master strategists and ministers of the realm etc., who should, and no doubt do, know better.

Not that it makes the blindest bit of difference to their heckling and haggling. Their naked focus is on their own place in the intended scheme of things, being of the greatest, even paramount importance, according to them. The concept of ‘service’ is only observed in the breach, and in the sonorous set speeches to the people once more important issues are settled.

 And this kind of behaviour seems uniform in party after political party, national, regional, factional, and so on.  Some of the protest may indeed be justified, as in when party supremos blatantly give tickets to their children and pliant relatives at the expense of the more deserving. But at other times there is nothing on the table but a sense of entitlement.

We are, as a consequence, witnessing a number of people, grandees and doyens amongst them, behaving petulantly, switching parties or going independent, with great energy and nimbleness, despite advanced age. A preponderance of recent aisle crossers are heading for the BJP, quite a few from Congress and leading regional parties, putting paid to earlier talk of their ‘untouchability’. But others like to fish in troubled waters, jockeying for leverage for the post poll scenario, given this era of coalitions.

Some of these new arrivals therefore, ‘parachuted in’ from all over, are also getting tickets for their perceived ‘winnability’, much to the chagrin of other ‘in situ’ hopefuls. The latter bristle, grumble and threaten,backed by their often lumpen supporters. They imply things, propagandise and preen, while their supporters go on a rampage.

The prospect of loss of power and its gravy-train of money, pelf, benefits, patronage, prestige, influence and prominence, hits the old guard the hardest because the elderly tend to be naturally reactionary and sentimental. They look back on their contributions and glory days and expect to rule the roost on the strength of these past credentials. When, and if, this fails to impress, they indulge in a torrent of disparagement of the present dispensation. It does not occur to such people to be future-oriented. Perhaps they know they have nothing more to offer.

Many of these worthies have contributed substantially to making a mess of the last general election and the one before that too. Others are stellar in their association with scams and corruption and illegalities, but even this does not stop them wanting a ticket of their choice. The implication being that they have enriched everyone up and down the line and therefore should not be singled out to carry the can on corruption at all.

Some elders, in this party or that, are known to have indulged in blatant factionalism, even betrayal, and have contributed to the losses of state governments by direct and misfired actions. Do they remember their own past shortcomings, and more importantly do they care? It is obvious they would rather rest on their laurels than dwell on the brickbats they might have earned. And they can be very thick-skinned about it too.

Other more cynically motivated moves from the old guard include trying to create and nurture pressure groups and dissidents, and actively pit one group against another. All of this, in order to internally influence and induce outcomes, and personally benefit from the power politics involved. Some even have unspoken prime ministerial and other positional ambitions as their agenda irrespective of the stated positions of their party.

These senior politicians are quick to be hurt and embittered at being overlooked or abandoned by their own protégés, despite acute displays of bad political judgement, faltering and failing administrative ability, inability to look at the broader picture, the here and now, let alone the tomorrows.

Despite the melodrama played up by the media for its newsworthiness rather than substance, there is no option for those entrusted with plotting a winning electoral strategy, but to stay the course. The threat of political disruption is real enough from such fringe elements, but buckling under pressure is fraught with unpleasant consequences.  In an ideal   world, the recalcitrant elders would have been willing to make a contribution in an advisory or non-political role. But many prefer to fight like there is no tomorrow. Change however, is by its very nature, inevitable, and cannot be held fast by the past.

(891 words)

March 23^rd 2014

Gautam Mukherjee

The Rise And Rise Of The BJP

THE RISE AND RISE OF THE BJP

The impending  general election for the 16^th Lok Sabha will lead to the final goodbye for the kind of Nehruvian Socialist model of development which has refused to let India live up to its potential. The two exceptions to the sorry narrative of minimum growth, rampant inflation, and dashed aspirations were the terms of PV Narasimha Rao and Atal Bihari Vajpayee, both of whom went in for bold structural and market-friendly reforms. 

Both regimes have had the greatest impact in the economic development of India. In an aggregated ten years, a minority Congress government and the only BJP one so far, changed both our world view and our possibilities. But this time, we are not just electing a BJP/NDA government, but probably putting paid to a failed ideology along with its dynastic delivery systems.

The old Fabian cum Marxist narrative has little or no chance of coming back, assuming and given a strong NDA Government that runs its full term. Generation next reforms coming up will be impossible to reverse even as the reforms of 1991-1995 and 1998-2004 have left their enduring mark. It is thanks to these years past that India is regarded as a potential super power and sometime capable of overtaking China in its growth and development. But it is the next five years that will build the conviction about India’s lost renaissance both at home and abroad.

Recent credible opinion polls give the BJP, on its own, a seat win of anywhere between 195 to 245. Even the staunch supporters of Congress are constrained to agree that the BJP led NDA will most likely form the next government at the centre.  

Only Rahul Gandhi insists that the opinion polls are a ‘joke’ and designed to demoralise Congress cadres, and that the Congress will actually win 200 seats. The other fantasist is the bizarre Mr. Kejriwal who expects AAP to win at least 100 seats to the Lok Sabha.

The halfway mark is, of course, 272. BJP/NDA is, per all forecasts, not quite able to reach the majority figure on its own. Leader of the Opposition in the Rajya Sabha and BJP poll strategist Arun Jaitley, seized of the shortfall,   has been exhorting the BJP cadres to try and increase the expected vote share  projected at 35% on average, by another 4%, to make a further dramatic impact on the seat tally.  

The allegedly cynical murmurs of the so called ‘160 Club’ within the B JP, reportedly not in favour of Modi as prime minister, will hopefully be belied. Perhaps the whole concoction, is no more than  Congress disinformation and propaganda. The B JP, out of power at the centre for 10 years is not likely to harm its own chances when they are looking better than ever before.

Despite a vastly better showing in most opinion polls, the BJP will need to rope in more pre or post poll entities to form the government. However, any tally above 185 on its own will place it in the pole position to attract allies; and almost all forecasts do give it a much higher figure as on date.  

The BJP CEC and Mr.Modi’s decision to   contest from Varanasi in addition to Gujarat will most likely increase the seat tally in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and other areas populated by ‘Purvanchalis’.  And while the ‘Hindi heartland’ projections are looking good, the yield from the South and West, directly and via declared and potential allies, also appears most promising. The East and North East of India seems however to be with the Congress still. But all in all, it is generally agreed, by all learned observers and analysts, the ‘last mile’ towards government formation will not be too difficult this time around.

Conversely, the huge losses expected to be suffered by the Congress Party, projected to give up over a 100 seats from its 2009 tally of 206, and a corresponding weakening of  its allies as well as some of the regional parties as well, will bring about seismic shifts in the political landscape.  In time, it not only spells the beginning of the end of dynastic politics, but augurs well for a consolidated two party system of the Left and Right.

Other developments seen this time, including the presidential notion of a prime ministerial candidate, and the promotion of the idea that decision making in future will involve not just the centre but also the states in the matter of resource allocations and autonomous   decision making powers in particular. Merit based political selection, that has allowed a Narendra Modi to rise high from humble beginnings, along with a number of other BJP chief ministers, will now irrevocably change the political discourse.  The meritorious in politics will not be held back in future because of dynastic calculations. Neither will equal opportunity be denied to any caste, creed or religion on vote bank calculations. The reservations route to political mileage and jobs too may be on the wane.

Still, Congress and other like-minded Socialist/Lohiaite/Vote-Bank oriented parties may coalesce into a single party of the Left, harking back to its mythical glory days of ‘inclusiveness’ and ‘concern’ for the poor. This despite a dismal track record of delivering any succour to any of its target audiences.  But it is after all a free country.

Likewise, the NDA and friends, old and new, interested in promoting growth, development, employment, infrastructure and security amongst other robust issues, may well unite into a single political party of the Right. This may come about not just for ideological reasons, but due to the dictates of viability and sustainability. The Third Front’s failure to take off underlines the lack of traction for more than two sizeable national parties, and the pitfalls of seeking power without a plan or philosophy. And a fragmented polity made up of a plethora of small parties has never been able to provide stable governance, as the Janata Dal experiments have proved in the past.

Similarly, the pulls and tugs of coalition politics is certainly one reason for ‘policy paralysis’ even as another has been the dual centres of power in the UPA, a diarchy, endured by the public for 10 underperforming years.  

The sharp decline in the popularity of the hugely corrupt Congress, despite its massive welfare programmes is both significant and notable. The debate and discussion is already shifting to masses of unsolicited advice on what the NDA’s post-poll priorities ought to be. The expectations from NaMo are extremely high, but there is every confidence amongst voters that the NDA government can and will indeed deliver.

(1,095 words)

March 16^th, 2014

Gautam Mukherjee

Modinomics Works: Red Carpet Not Red Tape

Modinomics Works: Red Carpet Not Red Tape

Rahul Gandhi recently executed another one of his desperate and hysterical speeches, this time in rural Gujarat, when he repeated a few talking points in common with AAP’s Arvind Kejriwal, and called Modi a ‘Watchman’ and ‘Hitler’. Shouting against big business like the Adanis and Ambanis is  both harmful and counter-productive to employment and nurture, but Congress is probably beyond caring and the upstart AAP couldn’t care less.

RG babbled on about the Congress Party,  MK Gandhi, V. Patel etc. and claimed all the progress made by his party was being claimed by the BJP. He highlighted the RTI and the Lokpal Bill. He said computers were promoted by Congress in the face of opposition from the two BJP representatives in parliament at the time, meaning Messrs Vajpayee and Advani. The outrageousness of this spurious claim eluded him, of course. 

And so he blundered on, trying to marshall his scattered thoughts long enough to sustain his ‘fiery’ speech. The scattered crowd in attendance seemed bewildered as they watched the spectacle, poker-faced but far from convinced, wondering at the rantings of the scion of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty. Still, he can’t be blamed for trying, there in the lion’s den, and in the face of utter despair.

Much as AAP and Congress may try to decry the gains, the benefits of Modinomics cannot be wished away. The dismal and graft-ridden performance of the UPA under a blind-eyed and largely mute Dhritarashtra-like Manmohan Singh, weak and worldly at the same time, is abysmal. Modinomics in Gujarat, by way of contrast, has notched up an impressive track record. Modi’s slogan of Red Carpet Not Red Tape For Investors has made Gujarat the number one go-to place for domestic and foreign industry. The famous ‘Single window system for new investors’ has done its bit too. Besides, Gujarat’s track record for ‘implementation’ along with a ‘conducive business climate’ has made the crucial difference. This ability to implement is certainly one gift that can be put to work nationally irrespective of the constraints of  a coalition government.

Of all places, Tehelka published an altogether positive article written by one Rajiv Kumar, probably the one who is the Secretary General of FICCI, on 28^th September 2013, in which he writes, amongst other laudatory things: ‘With 5 percent of the country’s population, Gujarat contributes 16 percent of India’s industrial output and 22 percent of its exports. On average, the agriculture rate of growth has been 10 percent, when the national average is 3 percent. It has reversed the trend in groundwater depletion and provides 24x7 supply of electricity to rural households. What’s more, farmers pay for the electricity consumed!’

Some quarters do continue to clamour for greater clarity on Modinomics, more out of panic than confusion, and because it has delivered far more than the inefficient Socialism practiced by Congress and the UPA. There is also a recent book released on Modinomics written by one Sameer Kochhar, but it too largely describes the Gujarat success story.

The expectation by business and industry and the surging stock markets is that many of the same winning principles will be applied nationally once the NDA is swept into power shortly. Rajiv Kumar in the same Tehelka article writes: ‘In essence, this model has investors and the state working together for the economic advancement, with the government ensuring that the benefits of growth are evenly spread and inequalities are not exacerbated. One of the consequences of this approach is to eliminate the spurious trade-off between growth and equity- both can, and must be achieved simultaneously to sustain growth’.  A Gujarat government press release could not have put it better!

 More recently, writing in Mail Today on March 2^nd 2014, Sandeep Bamzai wrote, with regard to the state of the Indian economy: ‘The rot runs deep- five straight quarters of sub-five percent growth and nearly all economic parameters in disarray’. He goes on to cite manufacturing as the most downtrodden sector, though agriculture too is in a mess. He thinks Modi will have a tough job ahead but: ‘Economic capitulation has to be righted’. Indeed!

(682 words)

March 11^th, 2014

Gautam Mukherjee

The Mighty Qin

The Mighty Qin

The First Emperor of China, Qin Shi Huangdi, died in 210 BCE. His son, perhaps like Congress’s own ‘Shehzada’, was unable to rule effectively, and there was a motivated ‘popular’ uprising. Liu Bang, a man of peasant stock, put together a fighting force and conquered Guanzhong in Shaanxi and the Qin capital of Xianyang. He was gifted the principality of Han by his aristocratic sponsors who had decided to overthrow the Qin. Liu Bang was encouraged to consolidate his hold by the aristocratic Chu noblemen, who thought themselves safe, being militarily adept, highly educated, and easily capable of being able to control Bang.

But the Chu did not reckon with Bang’s political acumen. After a short period of rationalisation during which Liu Bang conquered the whole of China, using treaties, bribes and force in equal measure, and got rid of the Chu overlords also in the bargain; he took the title of Gaozu, meaning Emperor, and established the Han dynasty. And the Han then went on to rule China directly for almost 400 years.  In fact, the dominant people of present day ‘Communist’ China, continue to be Han. It is the Han, in a majority in China, who are working to change the demographics of Tibet for example.

Is this narrative of change and consolidation in ancient China also a parable for the changes being wrought in present day India, albeit in a thoroughly democratic one-man-one-vote context? Are the days of Fabian and Marxist tinged Socialism with its poor growth track record and unkept promises about to be consigned to the dustbin of history? Is present day China,  groaning under a mountain of reckless debt, estimated at 276% of its GDP, taken on to build formidable domestic infrastructure, now in for a period of austerity and contraction, despite its nearly $4 trillion in foreign exchange reserves? Is India, poised at the threshold of an exciting renaissance, going to grow fast under the next government through accumulation of leveraged debt or the injection of a torrent of equity?

The impending overthrow via the EVM machine of the Congress and friends in the UPA, also has something of the epic turning point about it. There appears to be a firm rejection of all that they stand for amongst the people in poll after opinion poll, their spurious claims of being anti-corruption and inclusive notwithstanding. The nature of the rejection is massive, indicating a near majority for the BJP on its own, a routing of the Congress and its allies, and a clear dominance of the numbers required along with its NDA allies.

The expected verdict is a decided turning away from the vote-bank politics formula that has served Congress well for over 60 years. And neither is there expected to be any traction to its tried and tested characterisation of the BJP as communal and untouchable. Political parties and parliamentarians are moving towards the B JP in substantial numbers, even in this pre-poll season and more are expected to join up after the results are out.

The public is not convinced anymore with the Congress propagandist maligning Narendra Modi as egoistic and dictatorial, and the B JP as intolerant and anti-minority. And shouting itself hoarse about Godhra, crony-capitalism, false statistics about Gujarat’s growth etc. too is not resonating with the public.

The people seem to be bored of ideological arguments, and far more eager to subscribe to Narendra Modi’s political message of secular and even-handed development and empowerment of the States, checking of rampant corruption, promise of good governance and quick decision-making.

This development plank of NaMo will have to urgently deliver once the NDA comes to power. It must quickly promote and revive industry that has stagnated over at least the last two years. Industry is the key reason for the high employment generation in Gujarat, and a government that is industry friendly the main reason that so many big business houses have made a bee-line for Narendra Modi’s home state.

Narendra Modi as PM will therefore be in a unique and experienced position to promote industry in all parts of the country by using his trademark of quick decision-making and favourable terms for industrialists. This will encourage business and industry from home and abroad to venture into both greenfield projects as well as the expansion and modernisation of existing industries.

The importance of generating fresh employment with 65% of our population between the ages of 15 and 35 cannot be over emphasised. And burgeoning industry leads to associated indirect employment, often in larger numbers than the direct recruits in the factories themselves, for services and inventory management, raw materials, distribution and so on. Collectively, this needs to absorb as many people as possible from our much vaunted ‘demographic dividend’. Our real rates of unemployment are nearly 25% amongst the eligible, and this must be reduced drastically in order to spread the benefits of economic growth.

The appeal of the Congress and the Left has waned because despite the rhetoric of equality and empowerment, poverty has relentlessly increased under its administration and made people very angry for the suffering it has caused.

Coincidentally, with a reduction in food inflation to around 5%, it may be possible to start reducing interest rates promptly after the new government takes over. This will stimulate the money and credit offtake markets, and restart the cycle towards fresh investment.

The other great push has most certainly to be towards infrastructure development, another massive employment opportunity, starting with 24x7 electricity all over the country, adequate water supply and irrigation, roads, ports, airports, modernisation of the railways and reviving the moribund construction industry etc.. We have a tremendous amount to do in the area of infrastructure before we can join the ranks of the developed nations. Modi and the NDA will have a monumental amount of work to do to get this country moving again.

(977 words)

March 14^th 2014

Gautam Mukherjeean DynastyHHH

BOOK REVIEW: Rendered Worthless

Book Review

Title:   The Downfall  Of Money- Germany’s hyperinflation and the destruction of the middle class.

Author: Frederick Taylor

Publisher: Bloomsbury, Great Britain 2013

Price: 25 pounds sterling, Rs. 599/- in India.

Rendered Worthless

This is the 100^th anniversary of the start of the First World War, also known as the ‘Great War’. It was billed as the war to end all wars. But with its horrific loss of life, including that of nearly 70,000 Indians, amongst nearly 20 million others, along with the destruction of the pre-war economy, it effectively sowed the seeds of the Second World War just twenty years on .

It was also a time in which the German Gold Mark, worth 4.2 to the US dollar in 1914, collapsed utterly, to the extent that it was trading at over 4 trillion to the dollar by the autumn of 1923.

A big part of the problem was the war debt. Quoting  historian Frederick Taylor: ‘Germany had financed her campaign mainly by domestic war loans, with some foreign borrowing from neutrals… but she relied on foreign money far less than the Entente’. And: ‘True, the German government owed its own people vast sums, but who was going to enforce the repayment of that?’

Then, there was the heavy reparations. “Part of the problem arose from the web of inter-Allied debt… The United States had lent the European Allies around $1o billion…By the end of the war, France owed $4 billion to the United States directly, and $ 3 billion to Britain. Britain in turn owed $4.7 billion to America, while being owed $11.1 in total by the other Allied powers. Britain was… relying on getting paid by France… while France was counting on getting reparations from Germany’.

Taylor reflects on the crippling reparations bill: ‘ If we take the pre-war  gold mark/dollar rate as 4.2, then it comes out that the Allies owed America 42 billion gold marks’. When the ‘damage’ done by the German occupation of northern France is added in, an estimated 38 billion gold marks comes into play  forming a ‘running total of 80 billon gold marks’.

What could Germany, well off the gold standard since 2014, do except ‘print money’?    But this was a ‘bold’ move that shortly fuelled the hyperinflation.  The final reparations demand came out at  132 billion gold marks… and this after being slashed from 269 billion  put forward in January 1921.

The debt was divided between A, B, and C categories, with the last, about 82 billion, more or less waived. Still, Germany had to pay about 50 billion gold marks and probably thought its best course was to sharply depreciate its currency.

More and more notes were printed without being anchored in anything of value, and inflation started spiralling. Exports now began to do well on the back of the cheapening currency, even in a moribund Europe, and business started to ‘boom’. Still, the standard of living fell because of the runaway inflation.

‘Germany of the inflation was paradise for anyone who owed money’, But for creditors, for savers, investors locked into a fixed return, it was very bad. And it was understood that no German politician who did not want to be accused of ‘treachery’ should be interested in finding ways to pay reparations!

But the eventual hyper- inflation promoted by the Government also destroyed the domestic economy. The Government however was concentrating on creating employment in the post-war scenario, helping business and industry in the process, rather than the middle-class savers and b0nd holders.

But the next stage caused severe harrdship, with the mark ‘plunging like a stone’ and the economy and employment no longer growing as a result.  This remarkable season of ‘Weimar  hyperinflation’,  ended with the introduction of  the ‘Rentenmark in November 1923’. By the end of August 1924, Germany had a stable currency again. This was the Reichsmark, on par with the Rentenmark, and put the country back ‘on the gold standard’, abolished since 1914. The inflation era paper marks, traded at an official fixed rate of 1 trillion to the new currency, disappeared gradually. But with inflation stopped in its tracks, unemployment rose sharply.

In 1928, the standard of living of working Germans actually reached levels comfortably above what they were  before the War. But, austerity eventually brought on economic depression, ushering in Adolf Hitler to the Reich Chancellery in 1933. Hyperinflation in the early 1920s nurtured the seeds of Nazism.  A decade later, depression and hyperausterity brought it to power.

And now, in 2014, Germany is once again watching the results of over-leveraging and debt-fuelled growth in many parts of the EU, in which it has become the richest economy. The debtor countries in the EU today have a common currency in the Euro, and cannot, like Germany, inflate their way out of debt. And, ironically, it is Germany and France, the main lender countries, who are left holding the bag and calling for their Greek and Spanish debtors to pay up.

 (797 words)

March 10^th, 2014

Gautam Mukherjee

Sonianomics Versus Modinomics

Sonianomics Vs Modinomics

An hour long civilised debate moderated by journalist Rahul Kanwar, between Rajasthan Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje and outgoing Union Minister for Communications and IT Kapil Sibal, at the  ongoing India Today Conclave 2014; was, by no means conclusive. Civilised debates tend not to press any point. Besides, the time may be drawing near when Sonianomics, such as it is, fades from the scene, even as Modinomics spreads across the nation to take economic growth forward.

This may very well turn out to be the decisive electoral verdict on the merits and demerits of each approach. The most noticeable aspect of Sonianomics is Welfare, and the timing of a great deal of it, suggests it is aimed at garnering enough votes to win the general election for Congress and the UPA. Kapil Sibal is holding on to that hope in the face of Opinion Polls and other assessments that indicate the very opposite. He grandly said NDA has decided on its own that it will win the election, but this is in ‘the air’, but not, as yet, on ‘the ground’.

Sonianomics, by Kapil Sibal’s description, has certainly put its money down, along with its bets. Kapil Sibal said the gross budgetary support has been upped from 4.71 lakh crores in 2004 to 16.65 lakh crores in 2013. That is a roughly four-fold increase in welfare expenditure through the UPA years! But it is glaringly obvious that the money has not gone into the development of infrastructure, health, education, social justice, etc. in anywhere near similar proportion. Though the adjunct of Manmohanomics alongside, all but forgotten weeks before the election, has contributed in a muted if inadequate fashion to most of these things, the effort has been so weak that it has disappointed and angered the people. It is this inadequate development combined with massive corruption that is the stamp of the outgoing UPA Government.  

But at the Conclave, there was a palpable courtesy between the sparring partners, and an exploration of the two approaches to development espoused by the UPA and the NDA respectively. Kapil Sibal displayed a broad frustration with the widespread perception that the UPA has let the people down, when so much good work, according to him, has indeed been done by the UPA Government. However, he claimed he did not know the impact of all this good work on the people of India, as if they could not properly understand the actual situation, and how they would vote in the forthcoming election. In a roundabout way, he seemed to agree that the people were very unhappy with the UPA Government but felt, predictably, that this was undeserved.

The fact that the rising star of  Modinomics was being quietly defended by a State CM, underlined the commitment of NaMo to  ‘reach to the last man in the state what is taken for granted  in Delhi’ as Ms Raje put it. Besides, Modinomics was not created or nurtured in Delhi at all. This is the first time that a State CM  has been elected as the prime ministerial candidate by his national party. A first time, when the prime-ministerial candidate knows first-hand the difficulties faced by the States.

Vasundhara Raje illustrated this by saying about 70% of the current State budget is composed of central programmes to be administered by the states. Another 20% odd of the state budget accounts for the salaries and pensions of the state employees. In the end, the Chief Minister is left with as little as 5% of the budgeted funds to spend on a discretionary basis to help his or her people. The trend of returning discretionary power and funds to the Chief Ministers and the States is a key plank of Modinomics and is being keenly anticipated by the states.   

Kapil Sibal, UPA Union Minister in different capacities for ten years now, asserted, falsely, that the welfarism of Sonianomics was funded by economic growth. This is, of course, mostly untrue. Welfare spends, though sometimes partially budgeted for, is funded through the holdall deficit mechanism. This means piling on the debt to the books of the future Government. Besides, GDP Growth has plummeted in UPA II. 

It stands at some 4.5% in this fiscal. Sibal, in order to disguise this, valiantly insisted on referring to average growth figures. The fact is, that UPA have not been able to stabilise the economy after the global down-turn of 2008.  Government Debt has been increased  exponentially, gravely stressing the nation’s financials.

So, while Modinomics, reading between the lines, tries to deliver the infrastructure dividend to the states to promote the ‘happiness quotient’ of the people as Raje put it, while promoting employment, business and industry; Sonianomics decries this approach and concentrates on massive give-aways and doles even at the constant expense of weakening the economy.

(800 words)

March 8^th 2014

Gautam Mukherjee

The Five O' Clock Shadow Phenomenon

The Five O' Clock Shadow Phenomenon

The Nixon-Kennedy Debates in the 1960s were held at the beginning of the new medium of television. Kennedy was the younger, more suave, better-looking, wore better suits, carried himself with grace, and did not scowl. Neither did he have a five o’ clock shadow. Nixon ended up looking disreputable on the black and white TVs of the time, and nobody listened to what he had to say. Kennedy put out advertisements asking if anyone would buy a second-hand car from Nixon and consolidated the smear.

And in the end, thanks also to a very well-funded campaign, his projection as a war hero, visionary author, Harvard man etc. managed to win the narrowest of victories. Later, after the Kennedy and Johnson administrations ran their course, Nixon put a lot of his visual shortcomings behind him and became President. Richard Nixon’s comprehensive makeover process was described in a seminal book called The Making Of a President. That was the beginning of the televised political campaign even as radio trotted alongside, gamely trying to keep up. 

Today, with the nine Indian general election dates announced, the model code of conduct in place, at least two aspirants for power are clearly television and social-media phenomenons. And the presence of TV, Facebook, You Tube, digital alternate media etc. is so ubiquitous, as to have become unremarkable.

Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi of the BJP is, of course, head and shoulders above the rest of the 2014 field. He fascinates the media because of his substantial oratorical skills, his Indira Gandhi-like use of local headgear, as Rajdeep Sardesai pointed out, his considerable experience and success in Gujarat, and the newness of his development message slanted towards empowering the States. Narendra Modi’s bearing, natural authority, sartorial care, grooming and tone all convey subliminal messages that project the impressive future PM.

The other TV  phenomenon is an upstart challenger with next to no governance credentials or political experience. But this one brilliantly manipulates extensive media coverage, despite little substance to his pitch. Without this media ‘oxygen’ as senior BJP leader Arun Jaitley puts it, Arvind Kejriwal and his AAP would fade very quickly. But Kejriwal knows how to keep the spotlight on himself with ever new inventions of ‘newsworthiness’.

But despite agitating his way into the national consciousness purporting to be a corruption crusader, Kejriwal’s political reality show, running under the camera’s gaze, is increasingly coming unstuck. His on-record political circus is riddled with casually sinister contradictions, bare-faced lies, camp antics begging photo opportunities, street spectacle and sound-bytes.

And in the middle of the orchestrated chaos, Kejriwal positions himself like a beggar king out to strike terror in the hearts of politicians of experience and captains of industry. He is a fanatical street agitator turned messianic pretender, grubby in sandals and sweater, coughing and smiling menacingly, spouting extravagant and far-fetched promises to cleanse the system. Meanwhile, he may well have overdone it as the Election Commission considers punishment for AAP’s illegal attacks on the BJP HQ and other offices after the promulgation of the model code of conduct.

When the last vote is counted for this election on May 16^th, it will become clear that Kejriwal and the AAP are neither larger than life, nor possessed of any substantial vision. The establishment of Lokpals and Lokyuktas is not a panacea, any more than the medieval Catholic Church’s appointment of Inquisitors and Witchfinder Generals.

Indeed the blatant attempt to appoint a partisan Lokpal on the part of the outgoing UPA Government tells one that the Lokpal may become yet another ineffective ‘caged parrot’ of an institution. In the political evolution of a democracy, probity and integrity cannot be forcibly grafted on. If we are about to unfold a proud electoral process in the midst of our venality and corruption, it is because the Election Commission, amongst our very many compromised institutions, has managed to stay unsubverted and capable of delivering the will and verdict of the people.

Meanwhile, the economy and polity is making ready for a Modi-led NDA Government. The stock market is poised at minor all-time highs in terms of the Nifty and Sensex numbers, the debt market is receiving substantial FII inflows, but the widening and deepening of everything as we surge towards adding another $1 trillion in GDP is going to begin after May 2014. We are currently told India will most probably become a $3 trillion economy by 2021; but under NaMo/ NDA stewardship there is likely to be an advance on this date.  

It is ironic and not a little sad to see that Congress is truly reduced to a party of ‘power brokers’ as Rajiv Gandhi called it in the eighties, with no cadres worth the name anymore. That is how a negligible pretender like the AAP makes such undeserved headway in the national capital, and presumes bold enough to try and strut on the national stage.

(815 words)

March 7th, 2014

Gautam Mukherjee

Book Review: A Never Before World- Rama Bijapurkar

BOOK REVIEW

Title:                     A Never-Before World…Tracking the evolution of consumer India

Author:                Rama Bijapurkar

Publisher:           Portfolio Penguin books India 2013

Price:                    Rs 699/-

 The Multiple Choices Of Consumer India

Rama Bijapurkar is a thought-leader on market strategy and the quirks of the Indian consumer. She makes every one of her points with relentless, reinforced logic and earnestness. This book, coming five years after her well received We are Like That Only on the same subject, charts the road ahead in the third decade after the commencement of liberal reforms in 1991.

And, by implication, runs into a wall. Our infrastructure remains a major road-block. We have 51% more cars on Mumbai roads with hardly a road added in recent memory for example. So ‘guiltless consumption’ is hampered by an ‘abysmal delivery of public goods’. Not to mention the outgrown civic infrastructure, the filth, the pollution, the garbage, the faeces. Electricity, water, transportation etc. are lagging demand, to put it mildly. Education and health services run by the Government are of the poorest quality still. To do well in India means not really needing the Government for ‘living infrastructure’.

Bijapurkar suggests that the Indian consumer is varied within ‘a never-before’ world, and therefore a standardised approach may not work best. The point is made strenuously and provokes the reader to wonder about the truth of it. It is a sad fact that uniqueness and individuality have been assaulted, trampled on and sometimes destroyed outright by the invaders and conquerors over a half a millennium of history. 

That we have such strong flavours of cultural diversity left is a tribute to our resilience and ability to survive. 

Nevertheless, much has changed. We are influenced, in recent centuries, mainly by the hybridised, Central Asian Mughal culture, and the British that came after them. The British in particular were determined to denigrate ancient Vedic and other culture as part of their imperialist ethos. Most British colonials painted it out to be obscurantist, pagan mumbo jumbo, and thought it their Christian duty to supplant it with their ideas and their language. Since these were ideals developed by The Enlightenment and the Renaissance, it didn’t do us much harm, particularly in the context of an English speaking globalisation today. This modern education worked for us to a remarkable extent and eventually backfired on the Raj because the same liberal and egalitarian principles bred into the Independence movement.

Bijapurkar however has not written this book in the context of the last five or seven hundred years. She is analysing the state of play in Indian consumer preferences at the start of the third decade since liberalisation and the choices it has thrown up. We are, she thinks at the beginning of our consumption boom as GDP levels grow, and the Indian economy is poised to become $3 trillion worth and more. The consequent discretionary spend, the impact on choices and mobility, and the quality of life will undeniably be like ‘never-before’.

She advocates creation of ‘niche differentiated brands’ arguing that ‘a small percentage of a large number is large and niches can be quite big’. Bijapurkar points out India will be a $ 3 trillion economy by 2021. It will then be one of the top five consumer markets in the world. She says ‘matching the quality of basic living, with the quality of consumer goods people have is one of the biggest needs and opportunities in India’s consumption story of the future’. But the ‘quality of basic living’ is code for infrastructure. It is an urgent prerequisite to prevent a vital mismatch. Meanwhile, Bijapurkar is crusading here for a rethink of classifications of the volume Indian population into a more sophisticated matrix than ‘middle class’ and other.

So ‘better living amenities’ will not only spur GDP but greater sophistication in demand. It is not as if some amenities have not penetrated into the hinterland along with decent brands of FMCG goods, but the density is less. The influence of satellite TV and the advertisements it carries has had an immense impact on aspirations, brand recall, demand amongst rich and poor, rural and urban people alike.

‘In a never-before way’ says Bijapurkar, ‘India is urbanizing around its small towns and villages demonstrating urban- buying patterns and preferences’.  And ‘census towns’ are becoming ‘unofficially urbanised’ in addition to the planned efforts.

The key thing for foreign marketers to do is adapt to a high volume low margin market selling many of the same aspirational products they sell in developed markets for lower volumes and higher margins. This takes a lot of relearning and acceptance, because attempts to palm off inferior branded product on a ‘exclusively for the Indian market’ basis usually meets with stern rejection by the quality hungry population. Those, like Mercedes, who began by launching discontinued old models in India as ‘appropriate’ to our road conditions, promptly lost their place to first BMW, and then Audi. We may be Indian but we are not stupid.

 (800 words)

March 5^th, 2014

Gautam Mukherjee

Sahara's Face Blackened

Sahara’s Face Blackened

The proverbial long-arm of the law appears to have caught up with parabanking real estate mogul Subrata Roy Sahara and his diversified conglomerate. The Supreme Court, via a vehement two judge bench, heard his pleas for several hours, unmoved.  At length, it denied and disallowed any flexibility in the repayment of some Rs. 24,000 crores ‘illegally’ raised from ‘millions’ of alleged investors.

In an unusual show of exasperation, rigidity, harshness, even anger, the honourable and learned judges said Roy had been consistently lying to the apex court for one and a half years while mocking the judiciary by submitting false affidavits. It refused to believe Roy’s contention that he had in fact paid back most of the investors already, mostly in cash, as some  were often simple folk like rickshaw pullers, who are not likely to acknowledge communications from SEBI as to whether they had been paid. And people at that level often had little by way of a fixed address but were in touch with one or the other of Sahara’s army of 12 lakh staff.

It must be remembered, for context, if nothing else, that the Sahara Group, which told the Supreme  Court that it had paid back Rs. 137 lakh crore to its investors over its nearly four decades in operation, started with an investment of Rs. 2,000/-, and a scooter, in Gorakhpur, Uttar Pradesh, way back in 1978. Roy took over a near defunct chit-fund company called Sahara and remodelled it after Peerless style residuary non-banking companies that accept deposits in tiny amounts.

Roy offered to send hundreds of Sahara staff to help SEBI verify the truck-loads of repayment documentation submitted. Again, this too cut no ice with the highest court in the land, which suggested that perhaps many of the investors were fictitious. It ordered Roy and two of his directors into judicial custody in Tihar Jail in New Delhi till March 11^th  , or sooner, if an acceptable method was found on how the money was going to be repaid by ‘cheque or draft’. The visceral implication is that the Sahara Group is a huge black money cum laundering operation. It is true enough that rumours have long had it that there is a lot of politician, bureaucrat and film star money that circulates and rotates in the coffers of the Sahara Group. But, this run in with the law at the level of the apex court is an unprecedented first in 37 years.

Still, there is nearly Rs. 5,600 crores of the 24,000 crores in liquid form already with SEBI of which it has disbursed only a meagre Rs 1 crore to some investors. At the core of this case seems to be a crackdown on the Sahara Group and its extensive dealings in cash at the grassroots level, and on the fringes of the regulatory environment. SEBI, since its powers were enhanced, has had scant success with any of its investigations so far, but this time, thanks to the might of the Supreme Court joined to itself, it seems to be making its mark.      

Roy promised to furnish an irrevocable bank guarantee for the entire Rs. 24,000 crores and promised to pay back all investors still not reimbursed by selling real estate assets. But alas, even this was not accepted by the august judges of the Supreme Court who asked for a better and more reliable scheme. What is crystal clear is that Roy has lost all credibility with both SEBI and the Supreme Court, and would be best advised to comply with their wishes and put this behind him and the Sahara Group. There is, after all, no appeal to anyone except God beyond the apex court! Until a final verdict, one can’t even ask for a review!

While the Supreme Court decisions cannot be questioned, a casual observer may wonder how liquor baron Vijay Mallya suffered no such personal humiliation and harsh stricture for the collapse of Kingfisher Airlines, with massive unpaid debts, thousands of unpaid employees, huge dues to the Government etc.. He is even personally liable for some of the Airlines’ debts. But, of course, every case is different, and the wheels of justice may just have not got around to the point of reckoning as yet for the King of Good Times.

And then there’s Capt. Gopinath from whom Mallya bought his low-cost airline Air Decccan and took over its debt, before that too went the way of the premium brand Kingfisher.  Sahara was better at selling off its airline before it blew too big a hole in its finances. But all of this has been regarded by the Government, the regulatory authorities and the judiciary in a reasonably dispassionate manner. It is only in this instance, albeit after giving Sahara a year and a half to comply with its strictures already that the boom has been lowered. 

Still let us remember that the Government itself routinely wastes tens of thousands of crores in failed ventures and badly structured deals. The CAG may complain but nothing happens by way of accountability for all the public money. Everyone goes scot-free. But when it came to Subrata Roy Sahara the court may have decided to set new precedents for the future. 

(872 words)

March 5^th, 2014

Gautam Mukherjee

Rajniti Nahi Kajniti

Rajniti Nahi Kajniti

This is a strange time. I almost feel like quoting the first lines of A Tale Of Two Cities, but am able to restrain the self-indulgence.  A schizophrenic Congress is synonymous with corruption; scams are coming out of its darkness like well-fed maggots, for whom this has been a very productive season indeed. But the top Congress people are probably taking their tranquilizers in order to keep their cool and focus. They abuse Modi and BJP with the same tired lines, praise proxy voodoo doll Kejriwal, keep quiet about all the other parties,  talk feelingly about the poor, democratic values ( while it runs a dynastic rule), and inclusiveness, (while it sees much less than there is to see in Muzaffarnagar for example).

The hoardings and TV shorts around the country with trite slogans like Rajniti Nahi Kajniti tells you how the advertising industry will try and service your illusion every time. But they are only doing their jobs.

The latest attempt at daylight robbery, allegedly involving an unrepentant Robert Vadra acting for DLF Ltd. once again, is for blocks of flats a kilometre away, and overlooking the Mughal Gardens at Rashtrapati Bhavan. The 22 acre property is worth about 10,000 crores in the open market, but needs to be absorbed into the President’s Estate at any nominal cost, with a smart little ordinance to get all the greed out of the way. This particularly since there is a helipad mooted and in the offing for the use of the President and others.

Meanwhile, owner DLF has managed that root of all manna in the property game, the CLU (Change of land use), for the expenditure of a few crores, between  2010 and 2012, and obtained plan sanctions too. There is a chilling account of a proposed 39 metre wall to block a view of the President’s Estate. This, to get over security objections,  presumably the better to site snipers away from the popular gaze!

The PM’s Office saw nothing wrong in this bizarre proposal. The Intelligence Bureau ditto. The Urban Development Ministry, overseen by veteran businessman cum politician Kamal Nath  passed the proposal up to 4 storeys, with a review clause to take it up to 8!

It was the President’s Secretariat that had to cry enough, since no one else is looking out for it. And DLF is as yet feigning innocence, and there is nary a peep from Vadra. Why was this 22 acre development pending fire ever since DLF bought it, dairy land, over from Keventer’s Successors in 1992? Patience, it must be noted, goes with the acquisition of great wealth.

DLF knew they had a wonderful piece of real estate and must have been waiting for a powerful agent that could make the Government do whatever it wanted. The security of the President, the Cabinet, visiting dignitaries etc. perambulating on the Rashtrapati Bhavan lawns, be damned. DLF says the hoohah is exaggerated and there are several other tall building in the area, and says the Samrat Hotel overlooks the PM’s residence. The idea being to suggest if it is good enough for the PM then why not the President and his guests?

For a commercial company to care only about its investment and returns is appropriate. But how does a Central Government, in all its oversight and institutions, blithely fall in line? And look at the timing. It is like a final grab at the buffet table despite pockets bulging; unless we are going to be treated to even more revelations in the remaining days.

Perhaps it has been cynically calculated, that all the other noise, on the Rolls Royce engine supply to HAL and kickbacks of Rs. 500 crores paid, The Westland Helicopter cancelled contract in which Italy is holding over a 1000 crores of the tax payers money, the other pending scams without number, including the telecom and mining ones, involving tens of thousands of crores, will swamp this item. Everything is awaiting judicial attention, and this will obscure, overwhelm and hide this little gift to DLF. Besides, the electioneering is intensifying to full pitch at present, and there is no room on any contender’s side to allow distractions.

And Kejriwal, who ironically came to prominence as an anti-corruption crusader, is very comfortable sitting in the lap of Congress and talking communalism as his new area of focus. Some reports say corruption and all the other ills he promised to banish actually got worse during his 49 days in office. That in itself is not surprising. Superman could not have done all that he promised in such a short time. It is his mistaking his lowly jhadoo as a magic wand a la Harry Potter that caused the mess. And it is threatening to do more of the same because he won’t leave off with his reckless rabble-rousing.

His attack on Reliance is also reportedly at the behest of Congress. Mukesh Ambani has drawn closer to Modi and the BJP, and Congress, famous for its vindictiveness, wants revenge. Kejriwal’s pro-Muslim avatar is not washing nationally, but in Delhi, the people, according to a new poll, seem to want the AAP with a 46% projected vote share and an implied thumping majority.  But like the Delhi middle class and the Three-wheeler workers,   more people may walk away from the firebrand that hobnobs with Maoists and fails to deliver. The BJP State Unit, now under the clean and well-liked Harsh Vardhan, needs to urgently strategise.

Why has UPA’s 10 years been so marred by corruption? One, both general elections in 2004 and 2009 were unexpected wins. But now, why is it clear that Congress has lost interest in growing the economy despite its pronouncements? Why does every ministry, bureaucrat, MP and MLA under the umbrella of the UPA feel free to make money now with no fear of retribution? Is it because it has become common knowledge that the Congress High Command cannot deliver the votes anymore. It is sitting on a precarious and weakened perch, hoping massive welfarism and letting all and sundry make hay while the sun shines will see it through. 

Congress certainly believes so, and considers other, equally corrupt parties, are more comfortable with its methods. And there are some powerful foreign powers, including America, who would like that very much. A weak, corrupt, malleable, insecure India can be used very well. Many major powers are not looking forward to both China and India becoming strong and difficult to manage. China is tough enough to tackle. Russia too is not for turning. A weak India can well suit the global power play.

(1,101 words)

March 4^th, 2014

Gautam Mukherjee