THE RISE AND RISE OF
THE BJP
The impending general
election for the 16th Lok Sabha will lead to the final goodbye for the kind of Nehruvian Socialist model
of development which has refused to let India live up to its potential. The two
exceptions to the sorry narrative of minimum growth, rampant inflation, and
dashed aspirations were the terms of PV Narasimha Rao and Atal Bihari Vajpayee,
both of whom went in for bold structural and market-friendly reforms.
Both
regimes have had the greatest impact in the economic development of India. In
an aggregated ten years, a minority Congress government and the only BJP one so
far, changed both our world view and our possibilities. But this time, we are
not just electing a BJP/NDA government, but probably putting paid to a failed
ideology along with its dynastic delivery systems.
The old Fabian cum Marxist narrative has little or no chance
of coming back, assuming and given a strong NDA Government that runs its full
term. Generation next reforms coming up will be impossible to reverse even as
the reforms of 1991-1995 and 1998-2004 have left their enduring mark. It is
thanks to these years past that India is regarded as a potential super power
and sometime capable of overtaking China in its growth and development. But it
is the next five years that will build the conviction about India’s lost
renaissance both at home and abroad.
Recent credible opinion polls give the BJP, on its own, a
seat win of anywhere between 195 to 245. Even the staunch supporters of
Congress are constrained to agree that the BJP led NDA will most likely form
the next government at the centre.
Only Rahul Gandhi insists that the opinion polls are a
‘joke’ and designed to demoralise Congress cadres, and that the Congress will
actually win 200 seats. The other fantasist is the bizarre Mr. Kejriwal who
expects AAP to win at least 100 seats to the Lok Sabha.
The halfway mark is,
of course, 272. BJP/NDA is, per all forecasts, not quite able to reach the
majority figure on its own. Leader of the Opposition in the Rajya Sabha and BJP
poll strategist Arun Jaitley, seized of the shortfall, has been exhorting the BJP cadres to try and
increase the expected vote share projected at 35% on average, by another 4%, to
make a further dramatic impact on the seat tally.
The allegedly cynical murmurs of the so called ‘160 Club’
within the B JP, reportedly not in favour of Modi as prime minister, will
hopefully be belied. Perhaps the whole concoction, is no more than Congress disinformation and propaganda. The B
JP, out of power at the centre for 10 years is not likely to harm its own
chances when they are looking better than ever before.
Despite a vastly better showing in most opinion polls, the
BJP will need to rope in more pre or post poll entities to form the government.
However, any tally above 185 on its own will place it in the pole position to
attract allies; and almost all forecasts do give it a much higher figure as on
date.
The BJP CEC and Mr.Modi’s decision
to contest from Varanasi in addition to Gujarat
will most likely increase the seat tally in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and other
areas populated by ‘Purvanchalis’. And while
the ‘Hindi heartland’ projections are looking good, the yield from the South
and West, directly and via declared and potential allies, also appears most
promising. The East and North East of India seems however to be with the
Congress still. But all in all, it is generally agreed, by all learned
observers and analysts, the ‘last mile’ towards government formation will not
be too difficult this time around.
Conversely, the huge losses expected to be suffered by the
Congress Party, projected to give up over a 100 seats from its 2009 tally of
206, and a corresponding weakening of
its allies as well as some of the regional parties as well, will bring
about seismic shifts in the political landscape. In time, it not only spells the beginning of
the end of dynastic politics, but augurs well for a consolidated two party
system of the Left and Right.
Other developments seen this time, including the presidential
notion of a prime ministerial candidate, and the promotion of the idea that
decision making in future will involve not just the centre but also the states
in the matter of resource allocations and autonomous decision making powers in particular. Merit
based political selection, that has allowed a Narendra Modi to rise high from
humble beginnings, along with a number of other BJP chief ministers, will now
irrevocably change the political discourse. The meritorious in politics will not be held
back in future because of dynastic calculations. Neither will equal opportunity
be denied to any caste, creed or religion on vote bank calculations. The
reservations route to political mileage and jobs too may be on the wane.
Still, Congress and other like-minded Socialist/Lohiaite/Vote-Bank
oriented parties may coalesce into a single party of the Left, harking back to
its mythical glory days of ‘inclusiveness’ and ‘concern’ for the poor. This
despite a dismal track record of delivering any succour to any of its target
audiences. But it is after all a free
country.
Likewise, the NDA and friends, old and new, interested in
promoting growth, development, employment, infrastructure and security amongst
other robust issues, may well unite into a single political party of the Right.
This may come about not just for ideological reasons, but due to the dictates
of viability and sustainability. The Third Front’s failure to take off
underlines the lack of traction for more than two sizeable national parties,
and the pitfalls of seeking power without a plan or philosophy. And a
fragmented polity made up of a plethora of small parties has never been able to
provide stable governance, as the Janata Dal experiments have proved in the
past.
Similarly, the pulls and tugs of coalition politics is
certainly one reason for ‘policy paralysis’ even as another has been the dual
centres of power in the UPA, a diarchy, endured by the public for 10
underperforming years.
The sharp decline in the popularity of the hugely corrupt
Congress, despite its massive welfare programmes is both significant and
notable. The debate and discussion is already shifting to masses of unsolicited
advice on what the NDA’s post-poll priorities ought to be. The expectations
from NaMo are extremely high, but there is every confidence amongst voters that
the NDA government can and will indeed deliver.
(1,095 words)
March 16th,
2014
Gautam Mukherjee
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