The Mighty Qin
The First Emperor of China, Qin Shi Huangdi, died in 210
BCE. His son, perhaps like Congress’s own ‘Shehzada’, was unable to rule
effectively, and there was a motivated ‘popular’ uprising. Liu Bang, a man of
peasant stock, put together a fighting force and conquered Guanzhong in Shaanxi
and the Qin capital of Xianyang. He was gifted the principality of Han by his
aristocratic sponsors who had decided to overthrow the Qin. Liu Bang was
encouraged to consolidate his hold by the aristocratic Chu noblemen, who thought
themselves safe, being militarily adept, highly educated, and easily capable of
being able to control Bang.
But the Chu did not reckon with Bang’s political acumen.
After a short period of rationalisation during which Liu Bang conquered the
whole of China, using treaties, bribes and force in equal measure, and got rid
of the Chu overlords also in the bargain; he took the title of Gaozu, meaning
Emperor, and established the Han dynasty. And the Han then went on to rule
China directly for almost 400 years. In
fact, the dominant people of present day ‘Communist’ China, continue to be Han.
It is the Han, in a majority in China, who are working to change the
demographics of Tibet for example.
Is this narrative of change and consolidation in ancient
China also a parable for the changes being wrought in present day India, albeit
in a thoroughly democratic one-man-one-vote context? Are the days of Fabian and
Marxist tinged Socialism with its poor growth track record and unkept promises
about to be consigned to the dustbin of history? Is present day China, groaning under a mountain of reckless debt,
estimated at 276% of its GDP, taken on to build formidable domestic
infrastructure, now in for a period of austerity and contraction, despite its
nearly $4 trillion in foreign exchange reserves? Is India, poised at the
threshold of an exciting renaissance, going to grow fast under the next
government through accumulation of leveraged debt or the injection of a torrent
of equity?
The impending overthrow via the EVM machine of the Congress
and friends in the UPA, also has something of the epic turning point about it. There
appears to be a firm rejection of all that they stand for amongst the people in
poll after opinion poll, their spurious claims of being anti-corruption and
inclusive notwithstanding. The nature of the rejection is massive, indicating a
near majority for the BJP on its own, a routing of the Congress and its allies,
and a clear dominance of the numbers required along with its NDA allies.
The expected verdict is a decided turning away from the
vote-bank politics formula that has served Congress well for over 60 years. And
neither is there expected to be any traction to its tried and tested
characterisation of the BJP as communal and untouchable. Political parties and
parliamentarians are moving towards the B JP in substantial numbers, even in
this pre-poll season and more are expected to join up after the results are out.
The public is not convinced anymore with the Congress propagandist
maligning Narendra Modi as egoistic and dictatorial, and the B JP as intolerant
and anti-minority. And shouting itself hoarse about Godhra, crony-capitalism,
false statistics about Gujarat’s growth etc. too is not resonating with the
public.
The people seem to be bored of ideological arguments, and
far more eager to subscribe to Narendra Modi’s political message of secular and
even-handed development and empowerment of the States, checking of rampant
corruption, promise of good governance and quick decision-making.
This development plank of NaMo will have to urgently deliver
once the NDA comes to power. It must quickly promote and revive industry that
has stagnated over at least the last two years. Industry is the key reason for
the high employment generation in Gujarat, and a government that is industry
friendly the main reason that so many big business houses have made a bee-line
for Narendra Modi’s home state.
Narendra Modi as PM will therefore be in a unique and
experienced position to promote industry in all parts of the country by using
his trademark of quick decision-making and favourable terms for industrialists.
This will encourage business and industry from home and abroad to venture into
both greenfield projects as well as the expansion and modernisation of existing
industries.
The importance of generating fresh employment with 65% of
our population between the ages of 15 and 35 cannot be over emphasised. And
burgeoning industry leads to associated indirect employment, often in larger
numbers than the direct recruits in the factories themselves, for services and
inventory management, raw materials, distribution and so on. Collectively, this
needs to absorb as many people as possible from our much vaunted ‘demographic
dividend’. Our real rates of unemployment are nearly 25% amongst the eligible,
and this must be reduced drastically in order to spread the benefits of
economic growth.
The appeal of the Congress and the Left has waned because
despite the rhetoric of equality and empowerment, poverty has relentlessly
increased under its administration and made people very angry for the suffering
it has caused.
Coincidentally, with a reduction in food inflation to around
5%, it may be possible to start reducing interest rates promptly after the new
government takes over. This will stimulate the money and credit offtake markets,
and restart the cycle towards fresh investment.
The other great push has most certainly to be towards
infrastructure development, another massive employment opportunity, starting
with 24x7 electricity all over the country, adequate water supply and
irrigation, roads, ports, airports, modernisation of the railways and reviving
the moribund construction industry etc.. We have a tremendous amount to do in
the area of infrastructure before we can join the ranks of the developed
nations. Modi and the NDA will have a monumental amount of work to do to get
this country moving again.
(977 words)
March 14th
2014
Gautam Mukherjee
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