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Monday, August 18, 2014

Reform Snowballs


 
Reform Snowballs

Stung perhaps by a growing chorus of well-wishers and detractors alike complaining about the slow pace of Reforms, the Modi Sarkar has perceptibly quickened its  pace.
Fuel subsidies are being radically reworked to benefit only the bona-fide poor and not all and sundry. This approach is also going to be applied to many of the Welfare programmes it has inherited from the UPA. The Finance Minister has highlighted the undesirability of worrying about inflation alone at the expense of growth.  This is most welcome, because a level of tolerable inflation balanced against high-growth  is going to give the best results. A recent report says an investment of $1 trillion may be required to ramp up the Modi vision of urban renewal, infrastructure enhancement and a 100 new smart cities. This thrust alone, if put to implementation, will take the GDP back up to 7 to 8 per cent per annum.

The SEZs, a more or less failed idea so far, are being woken up from their slumber. And their allergy to impediments such as the applicable dividend distribution tax etc. which has put off investors, are on their way to being repealed. When sorted out, it will serve the cause of manufacturing, employment and boosting exports.
 Narendra Modi also keeps reiterating his promise to provide 24x7 electricity to every part of the country, and he said so once again at the inauguration of a  new transmission link, the Raichur-Solapur 765 kV second circuit line, in Maharashtra.

There is, of course, a tremendous amount to be done to upgrade and enhance the ageing and creaky generation, transmission and distribution apparatus, neglected and fallen behind demand by a vast margin. But even in his recent visits to Bhutan and Nepal, power generation was very much on Prime Minister Modi’s cooperative development agenda.
This makes it a commitment rather than pleasant political rhetoric, because repeated mentions of  universal electricity availability suggests that Modi and his Government  is willing to be held accountable for its promises made in this regard.

Likewise, at the launch of the indigenously built warship  INS Kolkata, Modi underlined his commitment, yet again, to much greater defence production within the country. That this also holds enormous invest potential alongside its spin-offs of strategic advantage,  state-of-the-art technology absorbtion, employment, and possible exports ,is  downright exciting.
An interesting and unfolding story is the exclusive use of state-owned DD for all of the prime minister’s public and broadcast communication. DD has, for the Independence Day speech from Red Fort, unveiled its new and enhanced digital broadcast capabilities for flawless and modern coverage. But lurking behind this patronage from the top, is the implied effort to convert the state-owned entity into a popular media powerhouse, with professionals, content, production values and profitability to rival any of the private and international satellite TV media organisations.

 The new BJP President Amit Shah has, on his part, swiftly overhauled his team, underlining his authority, dropping the less than dynamic . The new office bearers are mostly under 50 years of age, and chosen for their tested ability to deliver winning elections.
The BJP will also shortly build itself a fine and purpose-built party headquarters in the heart of New Delhi, giving over from its Lutyen’s Bungalow perch on Ashoka Road. This signals its vastly enhanced stature as a national political party of consequence, certainly for now, but equally so for the foreseeable future.

The Independence Day announcement of a Think Tank in place of the erstwhile centrist Planning Commission, tasked to push greater autonomy and authority to the States of the Indian Union is another bold change. It was followed, a day later, by Prime Minister Modi’s  desire to see the States taking a greater hand in promoting manufacturing and exports.

Of course, nor everyone thinks what the Modi Government has done in three months is too little, including Swiss brokerage UBS, content to see the Nifty at 8,000 by December 2014 and listing the Government’s announcements with regard to Insurance, Defence production, REITS, Labour Law reform etc.. But the vast majority fully expect an ambitious level of performance from this Government, taking its pro-business, pro-growth stance for granted.
 Narendra Modi  is going to Japan at the end of this month, and the visit is expected to yield substantial economic results in terms of nuclear power cooperation and manufacturing in the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC). This while a Chinese delegation is on its way to India to kick-start two SEZs incorporating sizeable Chinese investment, currently at a paltry $1.1 billion, invested in Gujarat.

Meanwhile, India’s trade with China has grown to nearly $ 70 billion per annum, with a trade surplus of some $40 billion in China’s favour. China is well used to running such unequal trades with most countries, but is open to the idea of manufacturing in an India run by Narendra Modi.  India wants to make inroads into the Chinese market in IT and other areas, and this is likely to be agreed after President Xi’s forthcoming visit in September.
The Koreans are also keen to participate, as are the French, the Israelis, the Americans and others. Every nation worth its salt wants to trade with a country of 1.2 billion souls. But friend and foe of this Government, both want to see implementation to match Modi’s flamboyant promises.

 Narendra  Modi, the canny politician, is well aware of this, and is clearly confident of demonstrating his Government’s mettle in the weeks and months to come.

(911 words)
August 17th, 2014
Gautam Mukherjee

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