When Are The Big Moves Coming?

 

When Are The Big Moves Coming?

 The international investing community that has been putting its money where its mouth is, as well as the Indian voter that has given the BJP/NDA its impressive mandate, is disappointed at the apparent pace of change.

And if there are good reasons to make haste slowly, it is nevertheless very hard on a long suffering public who don’t know the reasons either way. This defensiveness against the bulk of the Left-Liberal private media, and the Congress moles being rooted out within DD and AIR, while understandable, are not being counter balanced by the messaging from the BJP spokespersons on the job.

There is a serious communications deficit from the Modi Government, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself appears to be flying below the radar, in sharp contrast to his bold and direct line to the public during the election campaign.

The contrast between before and after is making people feel orphaned, and it is no use citing the inaction and corruption of the UPA  as a blanket excuse for what appears to be ‘business as usual’ instead of the radical transformation promised.  

One hopes Prime Minister Narendra Modi is saving up some dramatic announcements and surprises for India and the world for his Independence Day speech. Certainly, the anticipation is high, stoked in no uncertain manner by NaMo himself.

 At the same time, everyone can see and appreciate the Governmental efforts to tone up the administration. And indeed it is difficult to proceed fast with  the cumbersome inter-ministerial fiefdom  system inherited, renowned for working at cross-purposes. And supported by a bureaucracy grown totally unused to hard work and time-bound programmes over the last decade. But wasn’t all this changed rapidly, days after the Modi Government assumed office?

Having said this, results so far are positive if not dramatic. The GDP is inching up, other economic parameters are improving, the Railways have been rescued from the brink, the functioning of the PSU banks is being overhauled even as the UPA scam liabilities and NPAs are threatening to overwhelm their net worth, the SAARC region regional diplomacy is stirring afresh, foreign investment limits are being raised in multiple sectors, labour laws are being modernised. But why does it still feel like so much spring-cleaning and not what the public expects from NaMo?

Announcements, while plentiful, are not going straight towards implementation, but are getting stuck and blocked in parliament or in legalese. The rump of a Congress presence, with just 44 MPs in the Lok Sabha, has nevertheless found a way to block the Government’s legislative agenda in the Rajya Sabha. There, it has 102 seats, and is successfully making common cause with some of the regional parties too.

So when will the Government call a joint session of parliament to get its laws passed? Why is the NDA Government indulging a very negative Opposition when it does not have to, and particularly when the public wants rapid progress?

Governor Raghuram Rajan at the RBI is being allowed to continue with his obsession with inflation, implying that ‘growth’ is not the central bank’s main priority. And Finance Minister Arun Jaitley is chiming in with calibrated and cautious measures for the real economy that seem much too subdued. It does not feel like enough is being done to take the economy by the scruff of its neck and catapult it to a high growth trajectory. 

This lack of big announcements and reform measures are causing impatience and disappointment in  the public’s perception of this Government. This can be very dangerous for the upcoming Assembly Elections.The loss of all three seats in recent by-elections in Uttarakhand are being interpreted by the Congress and others as early disaffection with the BJP/NDA and a reason to take heart for a gradual comeback.

Strangely, the BJP seems to want to develop a consensus with the Congress which is impossible if the latter wants to survive and revive after its electoral rout. The Modi Government is also not seen to be putting the Congress leadership under the kind of pressure it deserves for its multiple wrong-doings and scams, thereby emboldening it.

The young, at 50, Amit Shah, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s chief election strategist and possible alter-ego, was formally anointed as President of the BJP on Saturday 9^th August 2014. During his speech on the occasion, Shah promptly warned the party cadres against complacence This, in the presence of over 2,000 BJP delegates.  Shah spoke of the need to   spread BJP’s electoral dominance to the states holding elections shortly, with special emphasis on Jammu & Kashmir, Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, where he wants to propel his party into winning, and on its own. He also wants to extend its influence to the entire Eastern seaboard where the BJP has been heretofore weak or absent.  Amit Shah also continued Prime Minister Modi’s electoral theme of seeking a Congress Mukt Bharat as the 130 year old Party had grown corrupt and venal.

Prime Minister Modi, speaking on the same occasion, in classic election mode himself, referred to the pressures from the developed countries in the WTO and his government’s commitment to the poor. But neither leader, addressed the growing impatience of the voting public with the gradualism of the Modi Government. And both seem unaware of the potential damage this could do to the BJP at the hustings.

(890 words)

August 10^th, 2014

Gautam Mukherjee