History In The Making

History In The Making

 A pattern is emerging after just four months of the new Modi-led Government. It is quite simply focused on ‘ sabka vikas’ to the exclusion of all distractions. And it is working foreign policy levers to give its vision the wings to soar. Domestic money just won’t stretch. And Narendra Modi declares he understands money and business instinctively as a Gujarati.

The regional revival of SAARC as a political vehicle signals India’s willingness to be counted afresh and to prevent China achieving a walk-over. This initiative has been rapid, almost immediate, though it looks like India must pay all the bills. And now it is Japan, China, and on to the US. The overture to Vietnam, though executed on specification by President Mukherjee, is also of a piece.

But, as usual, the visionary Narendra Modi is off and running, far ahead of the pack. Let the public realise that this is not 1962, as Modi and Jinping already have. They may both be constrained and embarrassed  a little by the blunt antics of the PLA, but this is not going to sustain.  

Our numerous domestic fearmongers  need to understand that India and China, are both nuclear powers now. But more importantly, they are the fastest growing economies in the globe despite recent slow downs. Nuclear weapons power creates a zero sum game, and everyone concerned must necessarily tread carefully.  Besides, the 1962 Chinese invasion and pull-back, was a slap in the Nehruvian face for our own provocative ‘Forward Policy’ that contradicted the high-mindedness of the ‘Panchsheel Agreement’. 

The Indian media have even misinterpreted the $20 billion investment over five years already pledged by China. They see it as reneging on the talk of $ 100 billion mentioned by the Chinese Consul in Mumbai. The fact is, there is preparatory work to be done on defence production cooperation, satellite technology transfers, nuclear power generation and so on, before more investment from China can formally come. This fresh tranche may well be announced during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s forthcoming state visit to China in 2015.

The intent of the Jinping/Modi entente cordiale for now is to change track. China will most likely overtake the US as an economic power soon, and it makes no sense for her to fight with the only other country on earth that can consolidate its bargaining power. Especially, when it lives in the same neighbourhood.

The PLA may not see things quite so clearly, fogged by its own vested interests, but it cannot stop the inevitable.  The border issues need demarcation to be sure, but it has been pending for a century. Nevertheless, both Prime Minister Modi and President Xi Jinping are determined to see it through. History unfolding will not allow either leader to be held prisoner to this impediment.

Modi, on his way to visit America as prime minister for the first time, will play the new ‘Great Game’ of shifting geopolitics when he meets President Obama and his government.   But India plainly does not want to be at the mercy of any hegemon, either from the West or East. And the best way to avoid servitude to any superior power is to befriend both sides.

In 2014 however, the stage is set for a great Asian resurgence. And this is principally to do with India and China joining hands. Japan and Australia are already realigning their priorities. India may be the junior partner today, but it has immense acknowledged potential, and not just because of its ‘demographic dividend’.

The current situation could be a replay with variations of the Nixon-Kissinger accord with Chairman Mao. It was path-breaking at the time, an improbable alliance between Capitalist America and Communist China, but it had very far reaching consequences.

Not only did it make China very rich as manufacturer to the world over the subsequent decades under Deng Xiaoping, but it also broke the back of the USSR and brought down the ‘Iron Curtain’. India too is poised  for great promotion with the help of China today. And together, India and China could well dominate global trade and commerce later in the 21^st century.

In some ways China needs India more for this purpose and knows it. We can save it from the decline of an ageing population and waning demand. The West, burnt-out with a crushing debt burden and low growth, cannot provide it sufficient succour anymore. But we, at the beginning of acche din,  certainly can.

India should not be overly afraid of the PLA now. If the PLA strangulates China’s India opportunity
despite Xi Jinping’s efforts, it will serve as a boon to Japan, Australia, West and South East Asia, Europe and the US. Either way, India will benefit, because we have become anew what we were in ancient times, the land of great opportunity and sustainable growth.

(804 words)

September 21^st, 2014
Gautam Mukherjee