And yet, JFK came to our rescue in 1962 when the Chinese
invaded. It was probably the US show of naval muscle that
sent the Chinese scurrying back. Nixon sent in the aircraft carriers too, but this
time to menace us, during the liberation of Bangladesh. We also got the message.
Clinton summoned Nawaz Sharif from Islamabad to Camp David and threatened him
with dire consequences if the Pakistan Army and irregulars didn’t withdraw from
Kargil forthwith. Two out of three times, it was America to India’s rescue, and
the third time too, there were no adverse reactions to the birthing of Bangladesh,
in place of the erstwhile East Pakistan.
But our democracies, that of the United States and India, do
differ hugely in terms of scale. America has a much bigger land mass and many
fewer people. Ours, involves 1.30 billion souls, with 525 million voting in the
recent general elections, a number nearly double the entire American population.
America’s democracy is neither as numerous, nor so variegated. It is also
underpinned, willy-nilly, with the neo- imperialism of the biggest economy of
all, and the greatest technological and military might on earth.
Is the Modi-Obama fan-dance then about an enhanced security
cooperation and the pressures of geo-politics? One that is aimed at containing
Chinese temptations towards expansionism? Does America want to manufacture defence
equipment in India in spite of its IPR and patent reservations? What about the stalled nuclear power
equations? Only time, and tide, will tell.
Meanwhile, India is the up and coming democratic poor
cousin, come to visit, with three million of its ethnic brethren who are now US
citizens. India as an independent republic is just 69 years old, but also an ancient
civilisation, rivalled perhaps only by China for sheer antiquity. America is
just 200 years young, taking its civilisational cues from old Europe, from
whence, after all, it was spawned.
After the two World Wars, the US graduated from being considered gauche
colonials, gaining in stature from each. It rose to its undisputable preeminence,
its massive power and glory. But it is now also being challenged by an
increasingly multipolar world, in a weakened economic state, and hampered by a
tendency to be insular.
Totalitarian China, set on its ascendancy by Nixon, is
catching up, with a possibility of overtaking it in the coming decades. India is bringing up the rear, from a long
way behind. But, if all goes well, she too could be ranked very much higher in
the not too distant future. And yet, not just now, but always, there has been a
clumsiness at our mutual efforts to draw closer. It is therefore difficult to expect very much from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to America beyond a level of satisfying personal vindication on his part, pleasant ‘optics’ on all the Indian TV channels blanket covering the visit, and an evident swell of pride in the American-Indian community.
Modi’s first visit to Washington D.C. as Prime Minister also
coincides with President Obama going into his lame-duck period. And judging by
how the India-US relationship went into limbo after the warmth of George W
Bush’s second term, India can only really expect to make a proper accounting of
where things are going strategically, once the new US president assumes office
in 2016.
Modi has certainly assessed this, and spent a lot of time
meeting many people from the American business community, boosting ties with
the Indian diaspora, illustrated in some measure by permanent visas for PIOs.
He met politicians and influencers from both the Democratic and Republican Parties. He wants to tell all
those who wish to know that he will make things very much more hospitable once
he comes back home. This should attract a flow of new investment in due course,
assuming that the Americans are enthused.
Modi has evidently built a strong lobby group amongst the US
ethnic Indian community during this trip, who may succeed to keep the momentum
in bilateral initiatives going. Some have compared the emergence of the Madison
Square Garden effect to be a lobby second only to Israel’s. This too remains to
be seen as future events unfold.
But perhaps the world is changing faster than America’s
ability to control the difference. Japan is seeking a meeting of minds with
China. China likewise has made a significant overture towards India, as has
India and Japan towards each other. It is possible that the powers that be are
not looking to America for either dictation or protection any more. Old NATO is
now a little redundant, with the demise of the USSR. Russia is on its own, but
reasonably unafraid of the United States.
The alliances to be made today cannot sustain if they want
to be master-vassal treaties. What
exactly they are to become instead is hard to define, but the sharing of power
seems to be involved to an appreciable degree. America with its propensity to
leave chaos behind in its wake wherever it has chosen to force itself, or has
been welcomed in, needs to change its tack. For the most powerful country in
the world, it is surprisingly callous in the conduct of its foreign policy.
And in its commerce
and technology concerns, it must also decide to voluntarily share its knowledge
or be supplanted by those who are more willing to do so. Many of the ready to
do business without holding back, are from Europe. There is greater recognition
in the EU, that it cannot afford to not jump in. Israel, like Barkis, is also more than
willing. So is Australia. In other ways,
so is Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and yes, Iran.
It may be high time for Uncle Sam to welcome, even embrace,
this change that has come unbidden but won’t go away.
(1,097 words)September 30th,2014
Gautam Mukherjee
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