The
Coming Of The Red Carpet
The India development juggernaut can get off to an excellent start, with nearly $100 billion slated to come in from all three countries by 2017. The first part of Modi’s strategy, of drumming up investment interest from abroad, is now definitely looking impressive.
While the world, encouraged by the policy initiatives already taken, the uptick of over a percentage point in GDP, is willing to give the Modi Government some more time to set the stage, there is much work to be done.
Freer Labour Laws, expeditious land
acquisition, provision of utilities, reduction of taxation, connectivity,
automation, efficient processing of proposals/permissions, are just some of the
things that must change. Only this will see the massive foreign and domestic
investment flows towards turning India into a dynamic manufacturing hub.
But the first signs of real and substantive
big-ticket reform needs to be seen in the coming 90 days.
Without setting such a scorching pace, otherwise second nature to the prime
minister in matters economic and administrative, this surge of international
goodwill is in danger of being wasted.
The concern that Modi won’t deliver on his
promises for any reason is probably misplaced, as the Government is set to
deregulate diesel, for example, soon after the model code of conduct, in place
for the Maharashtra and Haryana elections, lapses later this month. This will
save thousands of crores in subsidies going forward, even as a lower fuel
import bill calms inflation and aids the burgeoning current account/fiscal
deficits.
Analysts have begun to say that the Modi
Government has already laid a basis for GDP growth to surge towards 7-8 % in the
coming years, up from the near 6% projected for this fiscal.
And
more and more observers are allowing that the Modi dispensation is likely to
endure for two terms in office, or till 2024. This implies the BJP Government
will be able to substantially implement Modi’s vision for India. And since this vision is so wide-ranging, the
nation, and its place in the world, could well be very much changed, for the
better, in the coming years.
But concerns about the quality of governance the Modi
Government will be able to deliver, given the massive bureaucratic and
political inertia and corruption of the decade past, still remain. It is not
that the Modi Government is expected to slide, but the ‘system’ itself, used to
a less responsive style, may throw up its own voluntary and involuntary resistances.
Yet, most people view Narendra Modi as a
determined and transformative figure, not afraid of doing things differently
and taking a risk over it. And his track record as Chief Minister of Gujarat
certainly inspires confidence. This is not a politician who does not know how
to exercise power and deliver administrative
efficiency.
Meanwhile, the Union Council of Ministers
is also likely to be added to shortly. It will probably induct at least
one young and well-qualified ‘economy’
resource, namely Jayant Sinha, son of
veteran BJP leader Yashwant Sinha, a retired IAS man and former Finance
Minister himself.
While the Congress harps on this Government’s attitude towards
the minorities, the number of Bohra businessmen who turned up at Madison Square
Garden in New York, as well as the Muslims and Christian tribals of Gujarat who
vote for Modi, paint a very different and reassuring picture. The devastated Opposition
also routinely questions Modi’s ability to implement his plans, and suggests he
is promising much more than he can deliver.
Narendra
Modi is aware of all the skepticism. He points out however that the NDA
Government has already done more in its four and a half months in power, than the UPA
accomplished in 10 years.
It will strengthen Modi’s arm significantly
if the State Assembly elections on the 15th of October find in
favour of the BJP, rather than return a ‘hung’ verdict in the multi-cornered
contest, as the opinion polls seem to be suggesting.
This, more so, because Modi finds himself,
once again, as the chief campaigner for his party in both states. If the BJP
does well, and actually wins, it will be seen, once again, as his personal
victory. It will eliminate the blot of the lost byelections, and increase The BJP’s
legislative strength in parliament. Gautam Mukherjee
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