Delhi's Own Game Of Thrones

Delhi’s Own Game Of Thrones

This Delhi election, keenly fought, for its Vidhan Sabha, is scheduled to take place on the 7^th of February. It has generated nation-wide interest because it is seen as the first real challenge to the Modi Wave, extant since the Lok Sabha campaign in 2013. And it also involves two chief ministerial candidates from Anna Hazare’s erstwhile anti-corruption movement squaring off against each other, presidential style.

It also presents a stark choice between two very different approaches. The Congress/AAP though ostensibly competing for the same prize here, are sisters under the skin. They both want to seize this electoral opportunity to return to the old socialist formula of  welfarism, subsidies and populist freebies.

They are canvassing the same vote banks, over half the population of Delhi, some ten million strong, and at the inevitable expense of infrastructure development and better facilities. Such policies can run a prosperous state into bankruptcy. This has already happened to West Bengal where the TMC complains of empty coffers  all the time. Several others, like Punjab, can barely pay their Government salaries, running huge overdrafts to do so. And these eat up most of their revenues and receipts in interest payments alone.

The much vaunted welfare plans may well be election ploys to be forgotten later, but if implemented, even in part, must necessarily be financed by huge deficits, borrowing, accounting jugglery, a begging bowl, and financial profligacy.

Nevertheless, just the hope of the old order returning to mount a challenge to the Modi Government ruling at the Centre and many of the States, has many component parts  of the  national Opposition salivating.

The AAP was, of course, running a coalition with Congress for its bizarre 49 day Delhi Government in 2013, and could easily join up with Congress again if need be. Beyond Delhi, at a national level, and in other state jousts, such as in Punjab where AAP won 4 seats in  the Lok Sabha elections, this is more than likely, with the rest of the erstwhile UPA offering moral support.

The AAP has left no stone unturned in its effort to win this time. It has dumped its essentially fraudulent principles, with alacrity and cool contempt, and made a naked bid for power. It has not hesitated to employ every low stratagem, including securing funds from dubious sources, telling outright lies on verifiable TV, crying wolf frequently at the EC. It has used deliberate slander and misinformation, employed rank character assassination, played the whining victim, and used cunning pretense. For a new political party, this rapid development into a seasoned player is surely remarkable. However, it is disappointing too, given its early portrayal of itself as an honest and upright addition to the political discourse.

The AAP, if it wins, will have to keep its flock together, but that will not be easy when the gloves are off. Its stability and staying power will definitely be put to the test.

The alternative model, that of GDP led growth and competitive development between the states, is on offer from the BJP. It pledges safety, security, fast-track development of infrastructure, modernization, and expansion of existing facilities.

After the more or less month long campaign ended on the 5^th , the BJP put out full page advertisements on the 6^th , listing the several achievements of the Modi Government for Delhi over the last eight months. It makes for quite an impressive list that won’t be lost on the thinking voter.

In the nitty-gritty of the bare knuckled numbers, the populist AAP, is fighting for its political survival. 

But if it wins, the BJP will be under pressure to match its populism across the nation. This will turn off foreign investors, harm the national economy, and hamper plans to take this country on to a high growth path.

The Congress Party, which has ruled for three consecutive terms, ever since the Union Territory of Delhi was converted into a quasi-state (without control over Delhi Police or the land mass of Delhi), is expected to capture under 10 seats in the 70 seat Assembly. For the BJP, running slightly behind the AAP in most Opinion Polls, the Congress Party’s actual showing may help it clinch a victory.

The Congress tally of actual seats, and its vote clocked, will be snatched from AAP, which  shares the same vote banks, particularly in the absence of BSP this time.

The AAP is almost certain to get the largest vote share, about 40%, but its key support base of poor Muslims, Dalits and migrant labourers, are scattered across various constituencies. Just winning the most votes may not necessarily give it the most number of winning seats, says Firstpost.

In the final analysis, BJP may be the one to form the next Government of Delhi after all.

For: NitiCentral

(797 words)

February 6^th, 2015

Gautam Mukherjee