The
Union Budget 2015- Let’s Invite Something New
The key problem with this Government’s
soaring ambition is a lack of resources. Not only did it inherit a scorched
earth economy, but it had made a bushel full of promises. Over the last nine
months, it’s been probing the possibility of raising finances from friendly
foreign countries. There are billions in pledges. But nobody feels comfortable
if you won’t put in quite a bit of your own lolly. It makes one feel touched
and insecure. But the money required is vast. And letting the fiscal deficit
run away with you doesn’t work for anyone except America.
But the health report is suddenly good.
Growth; deficits under control, inflation contained, interest rate cuts in
prospect.
One of the hidden messages of this Union
Budget 2015, hiding in plain sight, is also an ambition. But it is to merge the
black economy with the white one, and unlock the value of the Indian obsession
with gold. If this happens, you’ve got a force multiplier that could put triple
the resources, free and clear, on the table. This is a rich country disguised
as a poor country after all.
Can it happen? A proportion of ambition
is always realisable. How much, is, of course, the difference between destiny
and fate. Economist Omkar Goswami, on the other Goswami’s show, kept hollering that
7 % of GDP , allocated to this and that, was lying unutilized in Government
coffers. This needs to be put to work, he said. I thought the Government knows
all about this, and uses this money tucked away in its biscuit tins on the
upper shelf, to take care of its shortfalls and miscalculations. It is kept unutilized
for a purpose. If Goswami knows about it, so does the Sarkar. Everyone needs discretionary money.
Having said all this, Modi and Jaitley
did a humdinger of a job with what they apparently had. They boosted infrastructure,
laid out a road map to enhance the dignity of the poor, spread the money around
over all their concerns and hobby horses, cut taxes, boosted defence, health,
education, clean energy, and encouraged India Inc. too.
Thoughtful people who don’t want to praise
this Government, ended up calling it a good budget, even a first class one.
Nobody called it big bang. Maybe Hawking has stolen that particular metaphor.
But there is a great hope in the air again. Talk of double-digit growth, low
deficits, poverty elimination. No luddite inheritance tax, no wealth tax. Cut
in corporate tax.
Sunday, the J&K Government is being
sworn in. The budget has promised it manna. A week from now, will the union
budget still contribute towards Modi’s aura dented by Kejriwal?
Nobody is accusing this budget of hot
air. Strange, considering some persist in calling it anti-poor, but not with
too much confidence. Between Prabhu’s spirited performance two days ago,
Subramanian’s nerdy assertions yesterday, and Jaitley’s hard working evidence
today, the Modi train is firmly back on track.February 28th, 2015
Gautam Mukherjee
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