Reform Via Joint Session Of Parliament

Reform Via Joint Session Of Parliament

The arithmetic is compelling. The 542 seat Lok Sabha plus the 245 member Rajya Sabha make 787. The NDA has 335 in the Lok Sabha, including a somewhat tenuous Shiv Sena with 18 seats. The Shiv Sena, of course, is still smarting from the humbling it had to endure from the electorate in its home state of Maharashtra, and being reduced to a junior partner in the coalition Government there.   

The problem to all legislative success for this government is in the Rajya Sabha. BJP on its own has just 46 seats there, where a majority calls for 123. Counting the Telegu Desam, Shiromani Akali Dal, the AIADMK, and somewhat hopefully, the BJD too, but minus the Shiv Sena’s 3 seats, it comes to 73.

The total of 408 is amply over the joint session majority figure required of 394. But take out the 18 Shiv Sena seats in the Lok Sabha, and the total falls to 390, and in need of some new supporters, perhaps the BJD, which has 20 in the Lok Sabha?

But since the BJD feels somewhat threatened by the BJP in its home state of Orissa, their support can be a little grudging. SP and BSP with 15 and 10 seats respectively in the Rajya Sabha, could, one or both, come to the rescue. But again, they too feel threatened by the BJP in their home state of Uttar Pradesh and are also rivals. TMC in West Bengal, firmly in the Opposition alongside the Congress, CPM, CPI, and the JD(U),  is in a near panic due to BJP inroads  made in its home state. The JD(U) and RLD combine in Bihar feel likewise.

But most irksome and frustrating for the government’s floor managers, is the fact that what would have been a shoo-in if a joint session is called, is not so certain when an NDA ally or two decide to play plays ducks and drakes.

So, it is imperative to garner some of the putative Opposition support on a consistent basis. The Centre can offer inducements of course. The AIADMK has already proved itself amenable during the Insurance Bill vote. The BJD by walking out during the same voting, can perhaps be persuaded towards a broader commitment. The SP and BSP may not refuse to cooperate, given the right incentives.

The hard core Opposition to Modi’s plans come from the Congress with its 44 seats in the Lok Sabha and its 67 in the Rajya Sabha, the JD(U), the RLD where the Nitish Kumar/Sharad Yadav/Lalu Prasad combine are viscerally opposed to Modi,  Mamata Banerjee’s TMC, and the Communists.  

The head winds to the progress of the Indian economy now consist of the unfavorable numbers in the Rajya Sabha, in tandem with developments in the world’s number one economy in the US. The latter can affect foreign investment sentiment that has been very encouraging since late 2013. This will, of course, apply to emerging markets in general including India, as international and US money flows back to the safety and trust of the US  from its trading posts  overseas.  

But since the Indian economy is picking up speed thanks to the sharp cut in its oil import costs, it will continue to receive healthy investment, but basically from those emerging market funds ear-marked for it.

The US might, it is said, raise interest rates to 0.25% to start with in June 2015, just around the corner, though other observers think it will be put off till December. But the US dollar is strengthening sharply right now, probably in anticipation, and the rupee is getting weaker.

There is however no sharp FII sell-off in the stock market, and no slow-down in fresh investments either. Presently the investments in the equity and debt markets combined are the highest ever, in the region of $ 50 billion.

And, unlike in early 2013, the Indian economy is growing. Volatility is however the order of recent days in the stock market, with some analysts predicting a correction of up to 20%. The foreign investor has greater faith in Modi’s ability and experience, to push through his reforms, than many domestic observers, in fact. The home scenario, in contrast, seems consumed by emphasis on the divisive politics of the Hindutva fringe in the Sangh Parivar.

It is imperative however, to break the legislative gridlock in parliament in a predictable manner.  It must break the so-called Opposition unity of the kind that added remarks to the prime minister’s reply to the President’s address recently. This should not be too onerous a task, because  the fragmented Opposition have nothing in common except political opportunism and a vaguely socialist bias.

The Modi Government, mindful of the socialists and their potential to create political havoc, has been careful to steer a moderate course through the shoals and rapids. It retains almost all of the UPA’s welfare programmes, even as it tries to get infrastructure and manufacturing up and running to boost GDP and create millions of new jobs.

Circumstances  have now turned positive. The WPI index has fallen over 2% minus making a case for an accelerated interest rate cut regime. The NPA’s of the banks are humungous it is true, but mostly due to stalled infrastructure projects several hundred in number. If these are restarted, the NPAs will reduce substantially.

The Government is still trying to process legislation via the normal Lok Sabha/Rajya Sabha route despite formidable challenges. This is with a view to include the opinions and objections of the Opposition. The Modi Government principally wants to promote a greater federalism, and seems committed to parliamentary process.

It is not keen on going in haste to joint sessions, because it smacks of rail-roading the Opposition. But having said that, it is apparent that Congress in particular is trying to resurrect its dwindling political fortunes by a  maximum of filibustering, street dharnas, morchas and shrill complaint.

This is all very democratic, but given its extremely corrupt track record, the Congress cannot be allowed to derail the legislative and administrative agenda of the government. And so, if joint session it must be, so be it. Indeed, there is merit in passing a number of key laws, such as the land acquisition bill, that will kick start the second stage of reforms pending since 1991, in a bunch, and as soon as possible.

Once this is done, the resultant momentum in the economy should also enlarge the government’s political space. The final result may be to render the obstruction of the Congress and some others ineffective. This could be a net benefit, but will have to be hard won.  

For:  The Pioneer

(1,103 words)

March 17^th 2015

Gautam Mukherjee