Time To Seize The Day

Time To Seize The Day

Has the Modi Government suddenly grown in stature and authority? It certainly feels like it. This Budget Session of Parliament, has been, unexpectedly, one of the most productive in recent years. The Government presented a well- received budget, and managed to steer through three important laws: namely the Insurance Bill hanging fire since 2008, The Coal Bill, and the Mines and Minerals Bill.

All three are break-through milestones, highly reformist in character, and will encourage both the private sector and the foreign investor , waiting to see whether Modi would implement his promises.  They will now begin to invest and grow, instead of waiting and seeing.  

The success in passing these three reform bills in the teeth of stiff opposition from the Congress, the Left and DMK, with the  Government discovering and consolidating common ground with other sections of the Opposition, augurs well for the future.

The Land Acquisition Bill, though in the eye of noisy  protest right now, is crucial to the Government’s development plans. Therefore its strategy and tactics to push it into law will be keenly watched. But already, the perception is that the government will prevail once again, and perhaps without having to call for a joint session after all.

All this, cumulatively, along with other legislation in the pipeline, including the Black Money Bill just introduced in parliament, and the Cabinet move to induct 33% women into the police forces of the Union Territories, will serve to be gradually transformative.  

The Government, on its part, has already gained huge sums from the auctioning of coal blocks and spectrum. Likewise, immense license fees from mining, along with modernization of methods, are also expected to accrue.

The Government will use most of this money, estimated to run into many lakhs of crores, on creating new and improved infrastructure. This will be supplemented by some $15 billion expected to come in because of the enhancement of FDI in Insurance from 26% to 49%.

The various investment pledges from different countries including China, Japan and America, running at over $ 55 billion; plus the monies from developmental agencies like the World Bank, the ADB, the IMF, the new BRICS Bank etc. will also begin to contribute now.

The Indian Railways, Defence production under ‘Make in India’, Ports, Airports, Rural infrastructure, Highways, Freight corridors, joining of rivers, Solar and Nuclear Energy development etc. will all begin to happen shortly. Millions of new jobs will be created.

The repo interest rates have also been cut by 0.5% to 7.5% by the RBI, and while it is expected that this will be followed by another 0.5% cut through fiscal 2015 itself and a further 1% cut in 2016, the high street banks now need to follow suit. The continued low oil prices projected will be a great help in this regard, because it will tamp down inflation rates.

As the Government moves forward decisively on its economic agenda, it is unpopular in many quarters, and certainly in the media narrative, for its antediluvian notions on social engineering.   This jarring note takes away much of the glory from its reforms.

This country badly needs a move to Right of Centre in its economic policies, because it will usher in double digit growth, which alone can eliminate the grinding poverty faced by a third of the population. But Sabka Saath Sabka Vikaas, cannot happen unless the saffron social agenda is both inclusive, and tolerant of pluralism.

Nor will the international community feel safe and comfortable to commit long-term to an India that is contentious.  The terrorist movements around the globe may have given Muslims a bad name, but  surely there is no compelling case against the Christians,  a peaceful and beneficial minority being  targeted because of their policy of seeking conversions. All the minorities must feel, as they did in Modi’s Gujarat, that this Government is working for them also.

The Right of Centre economic progress that Modi is ushering in cannot sustain, unless this Government wins another term in 2019. The question is whether it can do this by attempting to polarize Hindu opinion.  In some places, this could yield results, but in others it will drive the undecided voter towards the Congress, or any of its friends, including the AAP going national!

But as a policy tilt, it becomes subversive against the diversity and freedom of India. The coalition Government of J&K demonstrates that the BJP is capable of flexibility. Amit Shah recently said the purpose of the BJP-PDP alliance was to ‘solve the problems of Kashmir ‘. Pakistan does not want this, of course, and hence the stepped up terrorism and border firing.   

But It is also a truism that a Right of Centre Government can often accomplish what a Left-leaning Socialist one, cannot. We need to seize the day.

(799 words)

March 21, 2015

Gautam Mukherjee