The passing of the
baton
The Bharatiya Janata Party has been marked by inner conflict
resulting in both losses at the hustings and popular perception. There has been
a longing on the part of its supporters for a more cohesive entity led by a
strong leader. This has been singularly elusive through almost 10 years of
sitting in the Opposition. And this following on from a bid to power in 2009
led by Mr. LK Advani that did not succeed.
Now the ruling
alliance is riddled with shortcomings and failures on multiple fronts, but
still there is a feeling that the Opposition, including the principal Opposition
which is the BJP, is unable to exploit the situation to its advantage. The frequent
polls to assess the national mood now do however show a positive outcome for
the BJP and the NDA and a consistent thumbs down to the ruling UPA in the next
general election.
The road ahead to a number of assembly elections followed by
the general elections by May 2014 latest, calls for a singular focus on the
part of the Opposition. While The Left stands some chance of clawing back West
Bengal from the Trinamool Congress; the BJP has realised its bid for power in
the general elections needs a tall leader that enthuses.
That is why the RSS and the bulk of the BJP stalwarts have
backed the elevation of Mr. Narendra Modi to the pole position on the Election
Committee. This has been achieved with a
struggle, and has been followed by the protest resignation of Mr. Advani from
all his party posts even though his resignation has not been accepted, and
talks are on to mollify him.
The central point however remains that the BJP was all set
to snatch failure and defeat from the jaws of victory if it didn’t act to unite
behind a tall leader.
And Mr. Modi is
considered to be the tallest leader by the rank and file cadres in the BJP and
the RSS, and a number of senior leaders, and they, above all else want to be
led into the general elections by him.
President Rajnath Singh has been both statesmanlike and
courageous in the face of some stalwarts of the BJP disagreeing, to take a principled stand for the good of
the BJP and beyond, for the people of this country. The same people who are
looking for a viable alternative to the discredited UPA.
Sure, the elevation of Mr. Narendra Modi could result in the
JD(U) leaving the NDA alliance. But this is expected, and will not leave the
prospects of the JD(U) in Bihar unscathed, as a recent by-election in a JD(U)
stronghold that went to Mr. Lalu Prasad’s party has demonstrated already.
And there may well be other defections or unreasonable
leveraging in return for support. But all of this will eventually have to
reckon with a core tally for the BJP in the general elections that is projected
to be enhanced because of Modi’s leadership.
The next Government will be formed after extensive
negotiations with regional parties and independents anyway, whether it is the UPA
or the NDA that ends up trying to muster the requisite numbers.
And the Third Fronters are hoping to tilt the balance in
their own favour.
So, the best bet is to try and get as many seats as possible
on one’s own. This will be the endeavour of both the Congress Party and the
BJP. After that, depending on how many more are required to get past the 272
mark, the contours of the chief contender will become clear.
But is there a shift of policy in the BJP in favour of
development politics and good governance? Elevating Mr. Narendra Modi despite
some controversies that dog his image would seem to suggest so.
And the party rank and file, like so many other BJP
enthusiasts amongst the general public, do not seem to care. They are looking
forward not back. As are many Muslims that have been used at election time and ignored thereafter by the
UPA.
Mr. Modi meanwhile has developed a track record of garnering
Muslim votes in Gujarat. There is no reason why he won’t be able to do so
around the country as well. As a proven developmentwala, Mr. Modi actually does
deliver on prosperity to all sections of the population in Gujarat, and given
the chance he is likely to do so nation-wide as well.
There are some within the BJP and the NDA who fear they will
lose their influence with Modi’s
elevation. But logically, it does not help them if they resist the will
of the majority in the Party arrived at in a democratic manner. Mr. Modi has to concentrate now on wresting
power from the UPA.
Internal squabbles have to be relegated to the back- burner
to let him concentrate on this great challenge. There are fortunately enough
senior leaders to conduct those back room negotiations to assuage the anxieties
and hurts of those who feel ignored, passed over, or even insulted. Since some
of these aggrieved people are very senior and talented they must not be let go
of. But Narendra Modi himself has to concentrate on winning as many seats as he
can first and last.
It is also true that the ruling alliance will have to contend
with a very strong orator with a proven track record over successive terms in
Gujarat. One who is also much appreciated by big business and industry for his
pragmatic support.
In an era of rampant corruption, Narendra Modi stands out
for his lack of taint throughout his tenure. This is indeed very attractive
particularly because it has grown so rare in public life.
It is true there are other good men like Mr. Chouhan in
Madhya Pradesh, Me. Raman in Chattisgarh and Mr. Parikkar in Goa. But
fortunately they all support Mr. Modi’s elevation and acknowledge his primus inter pares stature.
Our national security too is in a shambles. Narendra Modi is
on record about his desire to tighten up this aspect given the chance. He has
done what he can at state level in Gujarat, but even there, lack of authority
over central resources and so forth have hampered his best efforts.
The Congress Party as such will have to revamp its own poll
strategy now as the inexperienced Rahul Gandhi is unlikely to be able to take
on Mr. Modi and his team without considerable bolstering. But the first order
of batting is to consolidate this clarity of purpose in the BJP that has come
not a day too soon.
Gautam Mukherjee
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