The Bandwagon Effect

The Bandwagon Effect

The election drama continues in a daily soap opera with its own quota of booth capturing, intimidation by political goons, fiddling with EVMs, entering voting booths without being authorised to do so. And now, even attempting to selectively ban political rallies/appearances/events.

The apparently partisan Election Commission Returning Officer at Varanasi, an obscurity named Pranjal Yadav, tried to stop the Modi Wave/ juggernaut citing law and order apprehensions. In the same breath, he saw no difficulty in allowing Rahul Gandhi addressing rallies, conducting road shows and meeting people in the same areas, at practically the same time. Perhaps he does not think Rahul will attract anywhere near the same degree of public interest.

Still, it is like an ant trying to stop the relentless march of destiny. Realising this perhaps at the EC head quarters, it allowed the Varanasi District Magistrate to give a last minute permission to 4 out of 5 of Modi’s rallies/appearances. The road show still stays banned.

The flip flop shows the EC up as partisan says Modi, while the EC denies the charge, and says security concerns are indeed real. The BJP, feeling harassed and disrupted in terms of its organisation of the events, will sit in protest  at Varanasi and Delhi, before having Modi visit.

Narendra Modi’s victory in Varanasi, and that of an NDA majority at Delhi, meanwhile, seems imminent. But it is precisely this perception that may be leading to some fanciful and bizarre attempts at collusion and subversion. Modi, it is seen, always gains strength and political support precisely from the inept and motivated attempts of his detractors.

This Varanasi blockage has happened in the midst of a sharp season of charges of  Neech jatiism and Neech sochism, tripping off the imperial tongues of the Gandhi siblings, followed by a  slew of semantic explanations to try and defuse the resulting outrage. A tea-seller cannot, it is felt, be tolerated as a presumptive prime minister by the high caste feudalists in the Congress Party, and certainly not by the Gandhis, with their overweening sense of entitlement.

Great German political theorist Hegel might have characterised the remarkable rise of Narendra Modi as illustrative of his famous ‘march of destiny’ theory. To Hegel, it is a beneficial process of taking the progress of mankind forward, in which different nations at different times, such as Imperial Rome, Catholic Spain, Protestant Great Britain etc., assist/lead the narrative.

Meanwhile, elsewhere, in the South, the bandwagon effect in favour of the NDA is growing, with YSR Congress chief Jaganmohan Reddy unequivocally declaring his ‘options are open’, interpreted as his willingness to join/support the new rulers in Delhi.  

But ironically, Chandrababu Naidu, the BJP’s official ally, is also targeting the chief ministership of Seemandra. In Telengana, the front runner, K Chandrasekhara Rao from Telengana Rashtra Samiti, will, it appears, also turn to the BJP for the support needed from the Centre.

Still, the real sense of injury may be much deeper, both for Jaganmohan and Chandrasekhar. Congress expelled YSR’s son, despite the father being an erstwhile pillar of the Congress in Andhra Pradesh, and caused Jagan to be put him in jail for alleged corruption. And theTRS knows just how treacherous Congress can be over the years of its struggle for the birth of Telengana.

This Barkis is willing stance from Jagan, ten odd days before the counting of votes, may mean that the key state politics rivals might both end up supporting the BJP/NDA coalition.  And perhaps this will provide a further momentum and template to would be joiners. Especially those from States in  dire need of financial ‘packages’ and concessions from the Centre.

Mahratta strongman Sharad Pawar’s NCP, is uncomfortable too. The NCP has decided to give a thumbs down to the crassness of trying to launch Snoopgate. The NCP could well become a late joiner. Besides Pawar thinks that Congress now suffers from a leadership vacuum. 

Another, an artful dodger of a political party, blow hot and cold communalist/separatist, blackmailing millions out of the central government, is the NC of Kashmir. Suddenly, it too did a volte face against Snoopgate at this last- gasp stage.

Over anxious Union Minister Anand Sharma, comic in his mofussil styled delivery, has been caught out by a report under the auspices of his own ministry. In it, Narendra Modi’s Gujarat has been cited as having the best, repeat best, land acquisition policy in the nation. This not only embarrasses his own pantomime thunder, but puts a spoke in Rahul Gandhi’s rally pitch, even as he screeches that Modi gave lots of land cheap to Gautam Adani.

That Adani set up, ports, power plants, industry on it is not mentioned, nor that has the further effrontery to employ lakhs of people. Rahul Gandhi calls this crony capitalism, but says nothing about the Vadra land scamming in his own family designed to benefit himself alone. Other election planks coming apart include the lack of development in his long held constituency at Amethi.

The propaganda against BJP General Secretary and Uttar Pradesh in charge Amit Shah in the CBI probe against him in the Ishrat  Jahan case, has also come to nought. All this tumbling out just before the last day of polling is probably bad news for the Congress. It seems to be utterly failing at its attempt to stop Modi at any cost.

Perhaps the Congress, and the now low  caliber remnants of the Gandhi family, has forgotten the adage that you can fool some of the people some of the time, but not all the people all of the time.

(929 words)

May 8^th, 2014

Gautam Mukherjee