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Tuesday, May 13, 2014

Time To Look Forward With Joy And Hope



Time To Look Forward With Joy And Hope

Now that the Narendra Modi led BJP/NDA has won the general election in spectacular fashion, all except for the counting on Friday May 16th  ; it is a time to look forward with joy and hope.

Every single exit poll gives the NDA the ability to form the next Government with the least projection in the region of 249 seats. But a majority of the polls indicate the numbers above the 272 half-way mark. BJP itself expects an NDA tally of over 300 seats, with the BJP component of it being about 260.

Every news channel is busy discussing the reasons behind such a showing. But nobody has the stuffing to challenge the efficacy of the Modi Wave and an NDA sweep any more.

The incoming Modi Government is likely to be tough on law and order and security. The Pakistani sponsored terrorism network around the country, and that of the Maoists, will have to be very cautious, because there will certainly be no Congress style tolerance shown. China will become a stronger partner in our development, but they will have to stop menacing us on the borders.

The 170 million plus Muslim population, the Christians, disadvantaged people such as the Tribals, have just as much reason to rejoice with this result, because Modi’s development agenda, the reason he has won, will definitely not exclude them! Now that the ugly Congress propaganda, designed to scare the minorities against Modi has fallen flat, it is time to experience why he has been elected so often in Gujarat. Modi himself has been quick to issue a statement post the last day of voting aimed at addressing and reassuring the variegated people of India.  

The stock market, surging on FII and HNI money, is confident of a stable and market-friendly NDA Government. The large and reputed foreign brokerages from around the world have long been expecting it, much to the chagrin of the UPA. Today, it is headed towards 25,000 on the top 30 stock Sensex. This represents a rise over 25 per cent in short order.

To make the revival more broad based and involve the retail investor, the Modi Government will need to take a few visionary and market-friendly economic initiatives. Irritants such as retrospective taxation are slated to be scrapped, but other specific market boosters will be necessary. Income Tax laws are also promised to be bettered.

The property market, over-leveraged and suffering, is also expected to perk up in tandem. This may also ease the pressure on the banks and their distressed loan portfolios.

Internationally, the United States, at last, is positioning itself to welcome a Modi Government. China and Japan, otherwise rivals, are ahead of the US in this, and are expected to become very important trading partners and collaborators in India’s progress.

The indigenous defence industry, with enormous potential for a country that is amongst the biggest arms purchasers in the world, long neglected because of various vested interests, is likely to receive an urgent fillip. This, involving billions in investment, will increase Indian strategic security and autonomy, improve technological prowess, and get us far better returns on resources invested.

The Modi Government is also likely to overhaul the country’s agricultural policies and infrastructure to replicate Gujarat’s 10 per cent growth rate. This will fortunately affect over 60 per cent of the Indian population, and go a long way to alleviate the poverty of millions. Modi has enigmatically spoken of increasing farmer incomes by over 50 per cent without elaborating on his plans. Perhaps it is a volume game he has in mind.

Certainly, if output is increased and wastage cut, if modern  material handling facilities are built, if high yield crops are grown more extensively, cold chains built, more mechanisation  is introduced, extensive internet based linking and better roads and rail connectivity is put in, dramatic improvements can indeed come about in agricultural efficiency. Vajpayee’s dream of linking more rivers implemented comprehensively, will prevent flood, drought, provide irrigation where it is needed, etc.. The only one doing it presently is Shivraj Chauhan in Madhya Pradesh.

Many young people have particularly voted for Modi because they expect him to deliver progress for business and industry and a robust job market to ensue. This will have to be followed through very quickly to meet expectations and deliver in abundance.

A major area of emphasis, already being targeted by FIIs is the area of India’s antiquated and bottle-necked infrastructure. Not only can it absorb massive investment by way of FDI, provide millions of jobs, and greatly contribute to the modernisation and the competitiveness of this country, we are hugely backlogged, for example, in the area of electrical power.

After the whole daisy chain of initiatives to awaken and put this nation to work is introduced, our GDP is expected to rise sharply as the accompanying investment stimulates the economy, starting something of a virtuous cycle.

But for the moment, this decisive result will, as desired, make for a strong and stable Government. In Modi, the people of India will have a prime minister with a stellar track record in governance, and with a Government able to take unfettered decisions.

The Congress tactic of trying to corner the Muslim vote as a way to stop Modi appears to have failed, with a surge in voter turnout and the splitting of the minority vote between various contenders including the BJP. Toxic talk of anticipated micro-management from the RSS in Nagpur and the hard-core Hindutva agenda being reasserted is overblown, because it the RSS that threw its weight behind a strong development oriented leader like Modi in the first place, choosing him over various alternatives.

In fact, another major plank of the long-term Congress strategy  of pitting themselves as ‘secular’ and ‘inclusive’, to the B JP’s ‘communalism’ and ‘divisive’, has patently not worked. The Modi counter-punch of pointing out the blatant ‘vote-bank’ and ‘pseudo-secular’ politics of Congress has found much greater resonance.

The Congress Party, on its part, could well be in terminal decline, and possible self-destruction mode. This is principally because of its insistence on cleaving to the Gandhis who have an outdated socialist vision and cannot seem to win elections any more. Are Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi fit to lead the country today and tomorrow with nothing to say beyond their illustrious legacy? Can they hold the party together in the Opposition? Do they have the interest and stomach for day to day stewarding?

Post Sonia Gandhi, these may become important questions that Congress is loathe to answer. But, the BJP and the NDA can probably look forward to an ineffective Opposition as a bonus.

(1,105 words)
May 13th, 2014

Gautam Mukherjee

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