Time To Look Forward
With Joy And Hope
Now that the Narendra Modi led BJP/NDA has won the general
election in spectacular fashion, all except for the counting on Friday May 16th ; it is a time to look forward with joy
and hope.
Every single exit poll gives the NDA the ability to form the
next Government with the least projection in the region of 249 seats. But a
majority of the polls indicate the numbers above the 272 half-way mark. BJP
itself expects an NDA tally of over 300 seats, with the BJP component of it
being about 260.
Every news channel is busy discussing the reasons behind
such a showing. But nobody has the stuffing to challenge the efficacy of the
Modi Wave and an NDA sweep any more.
The incoming Modi Government is likely to be tough on law
and order and security. The Pakistani sponsored terrorism network around the
country, and that of the Maoists, will have to be very cautious, because there
will certainly be no Congress style tolerance shown. China will become a
stronger partner in our development, but they will have to stop menacing us on
the borders.
The 170 million plus Muslim population, the Christians,
disadvantaged people such as the Tribals, have just as much reason to rejoice with
this result, because Modi’s development agenda, the reason he has won, will
definitely not exclude them! Now that the ugly Congress propaganda, designed to
scare the minorities against Modi has fallen flat, it is time to experience why
he has been elected so often in Gujarat. Modi himself has been quick to issue a
statement post the last day of voting aimed at addressing and reassuring the
variegated people of India.
The stock market, surging on FII and HNI money, is confident
of a stable and market-friendly NDA Government. The large and reputed foreign
brokerages from around the world have long been expecting it, much to the
chagrin of the UPA. Today, it is headed towards 25,000 on the top 30 stock
Sensex. This represents a rise over 25 per cent in short order.
To make the revival more broad based and involve the retail
investor, the Modi Government will need to take a few visionary and
market-friendly economic initiatives. Irritants such as retrospective taxation are
slated to be scrapped, but other specific market boosters will be necessary.
Income Tax laws are also promised to be bettered.
The property market, over-leveraged and suffering, is also
expected to perk up in tandem. This may also ease the pressure on the banks and
their distressed loan portfolios.
Internationally, the United States, at last, is positioning
itself to welcome a Modi Government. China and Japan, otherwise rivals, are
ahead of the US in this, and are expected to become very important trading
partners and collaborators in India’s progress.
The indigenous
defence industry, with enormous potential for a country that is amongst the
biggest arms purchasers in the world, long neglected because of various vested
interests, is likely to receive an urgent fillip. This, involving billions in
investment, will increase Indian strategic security and autonomy, improve
technological prowess, and get us far better returns on resources invested.
The Modi Government is also likely to overhaul the country’s
agricultural policies and infrastructure to replicate Gujarat’s 10 per cent
growth rate. This will fortunately affect over 60 per cent of the Indian
population, and go a long way to alleviate the poverty of millions. Modi has
enigmatically spoken of increasing farmer incomes by over 50 per cent without
elaborating on his plans. Perhaps it is a volume game he has in mind.
Certainly, if output is increased and wastage cut, if
modern material handling facilities are
built, if high yield crops are grown more extensively, cold chains built, more
mechanisation is introduced, extensive
internet based linking and better roads and rail connectivity is put in, dramatic
improvements can indeed come about in agricultural efficiency. Vajpayee’s dream
of linking more rivers implemented comprehensively, will prevent flood, drought,
provide irrigation where it is needed, etc.. The only one doing it presently is
Shivraj Chauhan in Madhya Pradesh.
Many young people have particularly voted for Modi because
they expect him to deliver progress for business and industry and a robust job
market to ensue. This will have to be followed through very quickly to meet
expectations and deliver in abundance.
A major area of
emphasis, already being targeted by FIIs is the area of India’s antiquated and
bottle-necked infrastructure. Not only can it absorb massive investment by way
of FDI, provide millions of jobs, and greatly contribute to the modernisation
and the competitiveness of this country, we are hugely backlogged, for example,
in the area of electrical power.
After the whole daisy chain of initiatives to awaken and put
this nation to work is introduced, our GDP is expected to rise sharply as the
accompanying investment stimulates the economy, starting something of a
virtuous cycle.
But for the moment, this decisive result will, as desired,
make for a strong and stable Government. In Modi, the people of India will have
a prime minister with a stellar track record in governance, and with a
Government able to take unfettered decisions.
The Congress tactic of trying to corner the Muslim vote as a
way to stop Modi appears to have failed, with a surge in voter turnout and the
splitting of the minority vote between various contenders including the BJP. Toxic
talk of anticipated micro-management from the RSS in Nagpur and the hard-core
Hindutva agenda being reasserted is overblown, because it the RSS that threw
its weight behind a strong development oriented leader like Modi in the first
place, choosing him over various alternatives.
In fact, another major plank of the long-term Congress
strategy of pitting themselves as
‘secular’ and ‘inclusive’, to the B JP’s ‘communalism’ and ‘divisive’, has
patently not worked. The Modi counter-punch of pointing out the blatant ‘vote-bank’
and ‘pseudo-secular’ politics of Congress has found much greater resonance.
The Congress Party, on its part, could well be in terminal
decline, and possible self-destruction mode. This is principally because of its
insistence on cleaving to the Gandhis who have an outdated socialist vision and
cannot seem to win elections any more. Are Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi fit to
lead the country today and tomorrow with nothing to say beyond their
illustrious legacy? Can they hold the party together in the Opposition? Do they
have the interest and stomach for day to day stewarding?
Post Sonia Gandhi, these may become important questions that
Congress is loathe to answer. But, the BJP and the NDA can probably look
forward to an ineffective Opposition as a bonus.
(1,105 words)
May 13th,
2014
Gautam Mukherjee
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