Opinion Poll Favourite

Opinion Poll Favourite

A new ORG opinion poll, commissioned by the India Today Group, says the BJP led by Dr. Harsh Vardhan will form the next Delhi Government. And that it will do so on its own with 40 seats. This, on the basis of a 37% share of the popular vote which the BJP expects will surge to over 40% on the 4^th of December, and actually improve the seat tally further.

Another  recent poll, conducted by ACNielsen for ABP  News and Dainik Bhaskar gives the BJP 32 seats for sure but says it could ramp up to 40 if there is a 2%  additional vote swing in its favour. As many as 15-20 seats could be decided likewise but none of the others can hope to win outright. The BJP election campaign, no doubt encouraged by such forecasts, is all set to go into high gear over the remaining days.   

The Polio-busting medical doctor has quickly garnered the highest approval rating for the post of Chief Minister . The Congress however is staring at its deficits of blatant corruption juxtaposed with massive prices.

Unable to countenance its imminent ouster, Congress continues to boycott  discussions  on Opinion Polls calling them ‘unscientific’ and ‘wrong’. Perhaps this  is their way of shooting the messenger before going into a mighty sulk.

Bagging Delhi in addition to the states of Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, all projected as BJP wins by several polls, will go a long way to provide a boost to the BJP campaign for the Centre. And all this in prospect is already starting to boost the economy.

Nomura, the Japanese Brokerage with an international footprint, is the latest to join Goldman Sachs and CLSA in predicting a BJP victory with a coalition led by Mr. Narendra Modi. Nomura goes on to expect a fillip to the GDP post elections to 5.7%  per annum and rising from the just over 4% it is estimated to be at present.  

Mr.Montek Singh Ahluwalia at the Planning Commission has also said a GDP growth figure of 6% is not difficult to achieve, given some changes in policy. The mystery lies in why the UPA hasn’t done anything about these required changes.

But Nomura suggesting that NaMo will, is great news to look forward to, after nearly five harrowing years of  experiencing the economy being strangled to a standstill.

Most of Business and Industry is groaning under huge debt burdens, acquired in more optimistic times and now caught out in mid- stride. Debt, an essential component of leveraged growth strategies, is very difficult to service in the absence of demand and adequate sales. The policy environment, obsessed only with inflation has nevertheless failed to bring it down. That is why the rupee has lost a third of its value under UPA rule.

The real estate sector, a good barometer for what has gone wrong, is sitting on large inventories, massive debt, high interest rates and slow sales. It is painfully marking time till after the general elections. There are very few transactions despite discounts and subvention inducements, but this too is expected to start easing after the magic month of May 2014.

All of India Inc. except those who are beholden to the patronage of the UPA, are waiting for Narendra Modi, who is widely seen to be an incorruptible ‘doer’.

And this time, the Congress and its friends, bereft of any ideas beyond freebies for the poor, are expected to cool their heels in the Opposition for a very long time. Their stalwarts can sense this already and are terrified at the prospect. Nevertheless, the Congress, it is anticipated, will increasingly suffer from a leadership and policy vacuum that is evident even now. But the days of mere Socialist rhetoric without delivering the goods are truly over. 

India is a country populated largely by young people between 15 and 35 years of age who have surging aspirations and can’t be bothered with a governance that perpetuates poverty.

The UPA as it stands is expected to undergo many defections after the general elections. Conversely, the NDA ranks are poised to swell; particularly when the BJP is seen to have bagged most of the seats towards a majority figure on its own. Again, foreign observers have projected the BJP will win well over 200 seats on its own. 

The constant effort on the part of the Congress and its adherents to depict the BJP as communal is simply not working this time. This is a major strategic plank lost to the river of change for the Congress. Most Muslims, Christians and other minorities have not seen any improvement in their circumstances under UPA rule. They are now being vocal about their disappointment.

The BJP makes no bones about being an ‘equal opportunity’ entity. However, it has certainly not discriminated against the minorities and the vulnerable in all the states it runs. Even the welfare programmes and PDS initiated by the Centre are invariably better administered by the BJP ruled states!

The perceptible BJP wave is gaining real traction now. It has taken the prospective outcome in the Delhi state elections from a hung Assembly to an outright win projected in just over this month! Much of this swing is being attributed to NaMo’s growing popularity. Winning Delhi ‘city state’, as Mr. Modi puts it, will be a prestigious coup. It will come in addition to the wins at the municipal level in Delhi and help better coordination. It will also be a harbinger of the crucial surge to come for the main prize.

(925 words)

November 28^th, 2013

Gautam Mukherjee

A Social Media Revolution

A Social Media Revolution

The number of people in India with access to the Internet, particularly with the popularisation of ‘smart’ phones, has been growing exponentially. It will continue doing so, via the millions, high and humble , who are already connected by mobile telephony, even as the cost of smart phones keep coming down. Add in the spread of fibre- optics, broadband, the use of computers, tablets and so forth throughout. The jungle drums will have grown wings, the grapevine new sinews.

 Juxtaposed to the  raging debate about fallen firebrand Tarun Tejpal, tying himself up in more humiliating and hypocritical knots with every passing day; there is a remarkable keeping up with the twists and turns of the story. And also loads of derisory commentary from ordinary people.

 Almost everyone has noticed the pointed silence on l’affaire Tejpal from the Congress Party and  its camp followers. This even as the same people continue to bay for harsh action  in other  such eruptions such as  the Asaram rape case. There is a blind and polarised morality afoot, an ‘us and them’ set of rules, applied without embarrassment. Or perhaps this is what Mr. Arun Jaitley half- jokingly called “secular rape”.

Thankfully, the mainline media has, this time, joined Social Media in its outrage. But the commentary online has fuelled the opinion formation almost on par with the mainline efforts in this salacious case. It shows what it is capable of in the long run.

By way of contrast, and with every intent to smother, the highly articulate, erudite, urbane, otherwise modern and suave Union Law Minister Mr. Kapil Sibal, has been attempting to gag the Social Media for quite some time.

And this, while seeming quite happy to face the storm of protest and criticism for his efforts. But all the angry opposition to his moves has not stopped him from trying time and again to cat’s paw this attempt at blatant censorship. A censoring and taming of civil society opinion that is. And not just the reprehensible child pornography, or offensive/dangerous incitements of hatred, which should certainly be curbed.  

But the attempt to stifle free electronic communication on matters of import, is actually reminiscent of Mrs Indira Gandhi’s ham-fisted Emergency manoeuvres, which were accompanied by the jailing of senior journalists to boot.

And this wanting to regulate and control a reasonably spontaneous medium is allegedly at the behest of the topmost levels of the Congress Party. How the current Government must long for the old days of AIR and Doordarshan, those convenient  newsprint shortages, the very limited numbers of papers and magazines.   

The current Minister for Information & Broadcasting, Mr. Manish Tiwari, another prominent lawyer , also appears uncomfortable with Social Media. This perhaps because it is truly democratic, can be anonymous, and is essentially uncontrollable. The I&B Minister in days of yore pretty much told the media what to do, which photographs and documentaries to show, what to write, and when. But here is the swift to react Social Media, gone all electronic and digital, using mobile telephony, tablets and computers. News or comment spread instantly on self- operated communication devices, almost free, once you’ve paid for and possess a device that can access the Internet, and a ‘plan’ that makes it work.

One part of failing in the attempt to muzzle the Social Media is the technical difficulty of stopping messaging/blogs/ tweets/whatsapp/bbm/text/You Tube/Instagram/MMS etc. via platforms, mobile networks and servers when located abroad. The other part is a desire to use the powerful medium to counter- blast  the Party and Government’s own views. This, particularly since the Opposition BJP, and its prime ministerial candidate Narendra  Modi is so adept at using it. There is also the frustration of trying and failing to suppress such communication. Lastly, it is difficult to bribe or intimidate hundreds and thousands, maybe millions of people, into submission and conformity.

Of course, laws do exist, and others are being framed,  to check abusive, false, inaccurate or intrusive use, to malign, scare- off, slander, incite etc. and this is as it should be.

But while all this portends the brave new world we live in, much of ‘old media’ finds itself compromised. Many journalistic standards have plummeted. Not only has editorial authority been subordinated to the marketing department, but ‘paid news’ has become commonplace.

There  are whisper campaigns about the allegiance of large media houses, including the alleged acceptance of large wads of cash, to highlight, debunk or ‘spike’ features on various issues in a manner that smacks of blackmail and motivated reportage.

Without naming names, most people interested in current affairs know which groups lean towards the  Leftist Congress, and which, much fewer in number, support the Right- of -Centre BJP. There are also hosts of publications and TV channels that cater to regional interests with leanings of their own.

Not only is this positioning reflected as a political preference, in analytical tonality; but the media houses are seen to be willing to run motivated, sometimes untruthful and propagandist campaigns against the opposing political formation.

The scams that matter are evidently only the ones the opponents are involved in! The victories and good news highlighted are those of the home party. The funding of the media houses and their initiatives are also rumoured to be supplemented by those whom it serves.

Some of the money obviously comes in the form of advertisements, from the Government, various State Governments, Political Parties, Government departments, private companies, individuals, educational institutions, and so on. This too is expected to extract favourable news coverage.

The fallen image of much of the mainline media also allegedly involves other clandestine amounts paid to journalists for that variation of paid news. There is also the out- and- out ‘sponsored’ item which is declared as such, but nevertheless occupies much more space or TV time than heretofore.

The only irreverent and unbridled commentary tends to be on Social Media, with wide fluctuations of unsupervised quality, though even here, various Websites, Blogs  and You Tube offerings do have their political leanings and funding from ‘interested’ sources. Others, many fora are free, and host  largely unpaid and voluntary interaction between citizens. It is this chatting, commenting, posting and joking, largely spontaneous, that is difficult to control.

It remains to be seen how the current combination of a largely ‘committed’ old media and freer, possibly less manipulated ‘new media’, add up to votes for one or the other possible formations. Or indeed the third, or multiple contenders in this forthcoming  general election. In the end, given the level of disenchantment with the incumbents, it is likely to throw up a new coalition led by the BJP.

(1,107 words)

November 26^th, 2013

Gautam Mukherjee

Braveheart

Braveheart

The just concluded cap on Iran’s nuclear weapons ambitions, while an ‘interim agreement’, is yet another demonstration of the Obama administration’s ability to defuse a crisis that had the potential to cause grievous economic harm to the world at large.

Coming  on top of the successful resolution of the Syrian ‘Chemical Weapons’ crisis, albeit with strong Russian help, the duo of foreign policy breakthroughs means an evolution to the politics of war that had plagued the Middle East of late. It also means, for India that imports over 70% of its oil, that we can expect greater stability in petroleum prices going forward with excellent portends for rupee stability and our CAD.

This breakthrough with Iran comes after a 35 year gap filled with mistrust and heaped economic sanctions, some $ 7 billion worth of which have been eased by this accord. It has been rightly characterised by CNN  as the moving of a ‘diplomatic mountain’. And if it is followed through with a comprehensive agreement in six months’ time as projected, will result in a profound shift in the contentious politics of the Middle East, with great economic spin-offs for many, including India.

This ‘Iran Nuclear Deal’, may mean the beginning of a new era of global economic prosperity after several years of slogging dog- days, ever since the economic crisis began in January 2008. And America, with an economy still in crisis itself, has had the wisdom to not indulge itself in yet another set of horrendously expensive wars in Syria and Iran. Particularly, since this time, there is no other country in a position to defray its costs either. The US which has a reputation for War being its ‘Number One Export’, has refrained, twice in a row, from adding to the stereotype. And analysts have been quick to suggest that this accord with Iran may go down in history as President Obama’s finest foreign policy success.

Domestically in America, the gung-ho militarist mood of the George W Bush era may be shelved indefinitely, and perhaps rightly so, given the less than truthful basis of the war with Iraq and its untruthful bogey of the “Weapons of Mass Destruction”.  And these are definitely economically grim times.

Not long ago, the world witnessed a confrontation when ‘Obamacare’, a medical insurance system aimed at the poor, garnered so much opposition from the Republican Party that it brought the US Government’s finances to a standstill. It threatened a default on US sovereign debt, and combined with the proposed tapering of stimulus by the US Federal Reserve Bank, may yet emerge as a crisis point once again.

This successful agreement between the Iranians, with a reputation for being tough negotiators, and the 6 world powers involved, will also result in the continued lifting of a large number of crippling economic sanctions, just as it also has in the Syrian context. Iran is itself in considerable economic distress with a quarter of its eligible people unemployed, and will be hugely benefited with its trade flows taking off afresh. This is  also good for India, with its cordial relationship with Iran, in terms of bilateral trade.

Pakistan will have less leverage over the US withdrawal from land-locked Afghanistan, less hold over Afghan fighters recruited to harass India in Kashmir, and on the plus side, better economic relations itself with Iran.  Afghanistan too can develop much better diplomatic relations with its Iranian neighbour and not be quite so dependent on Pakistani good graces, or be intimidated as much by its dictates.

This ‘historic’ agreement and its implied consequences have left Israel suspicious of Iran’s sincerity to not pursue a weapons programme as pledged.  They think the Iranians may use these coming months to accelerate their uranium enrichment and weapons programme etc. The Saudis, long the beneficiaries of the US estrangement with Iran, are also not very pleased.

As a major Shia nation, amongst a large number of Sunni nations in the region, Iran is once again emerging onto the world stage as a full partner. This has been absent since the fall of the Shah Reza Pahlavi. The geopolitical situation therefore may indeed be stabilising thanks to the recent positive developments in both Syria and Iran, but, as usual, it cannot please vested interests that have been profiting from the rifts and conflicts in the region.

But, in an economically troubled world coming out of recession in painfully slow degrees, these are very good and necessary developments. Two huge crises with the potential to result in devastating wars that would have completely broken the back of the already precarious ‘energy’ economics, are on their way to fruitful benefits for many. The P5+ 1, namely the US, the UK, Russia, China, France, and Germany have pulled off a very worthwhile accord with a more practical and less ideologically driven Iran under President 

Hassan Rouhani, who rightly expects the treaty to ‘open new horizons’.

China, often seen as a military threat to India, is taking its international obligations more and more seriously, as is Russia. They are now, without a doubt, not only amongst the world’s great powers, but growing more influential by the day. They too are not inclined to be confined to being regional players anymore. This shift in priorities helps India, particularly in its strategic equation with Pakistan. China is likely to take a more defensive role to support its old ally Pakistan going forward. It is likely to discourage Pakistani aggression against India. For itself, it has been signalling a less belligerent posture with India on border talks etc. lately. This is because China stands to gain much greater dividends from leveraging its trade and industry initiatives with an India which has enormous potential.

The age of multilateralism, in which India could also play a significant role, despite its present weakness, may be well and truly dawning.

(975 words)

November 25^th, 2013

Gautam Mukherjee

Life

Life

Why is it that the several that gain their very prominence, and sometimes a very decent living to boot, from setting stridently lofty standards for others, nurse a subconscious wish to be hoisted on their own petard?  

The psychologists and ‘shrinks’ have their hypotheses of course, but the question is still worth asking. Could it be the secret urge to be brought down? Is there a desire to be ‘bad’ combined with a masochistic need to be humbled? Is it hubris, low-self esteem, a ‘fix-it’ manipulative mindset, moral bankruptcy, the corruption of power, the feeling of being ‘above the law’ or  a  delusion of invincibility?

Is it the flirtation with danger and disrepute that provides the frisson to a jaded sexual appetite? We have seen this happen, to the headline writer’s delight, time and again. The fire and brimstone preacher caught with his pants down, the craven evangelist, the flawed idealist, the ‘incorruptible’,   an otherwise charismatic politician who posts pictures of his ‘family jewels’ via mms, gay rock stars roughed up by ‘yobs’ in public toilets, film heroes caught being serviced in cars,  lurid politicians in bunga-bunga mode, wannabe ingénues snuffed out like candles.

It is an unsavoury potpourri, but more funny than tragic when one looks at the disgraced perpetrators. But then, there is the very real suffering and trauma of the victims, especially when it ends, as it does so frequently, in gruesome murder.

But, here Tehelka, long in the public’s face for its intrusive style of journalism, its ‘stings’

involving secret cameras, its flowery prose, has come a cropper.  The hidden cameras have long

been seen by many as unfair if not illegal ‘entrapment’. In addition, Tehelka’s Left-leaning tone,

largely seen as pro-Congress, positions it, somewhat superciliously, as morally superior. But now,

as the cliché would have it, its Editor is himself in the dock for a spot of moral turpitude.

Tehelka, originally set-up as a website erected on a shoe-string, but with moneyed supporters in the shadows, came to the nation’s notice by mounting a damaging, if ultimately hollow attack, on the Atal Bihari Vajpayee Government, using its trademark low-blows and aggressively intrusive means.

Then, Tehelka’s management thought nothing of attempting to trash several reputations including those of then Defence Minister George Fernandes, that of his companion Jaya Jaitley, several military personnel and others.  Subsequently, Tehelka milked the notoriety for years, collecting donations and subscriptions, portraying itself as a victim of the BJP Government’s harassment, and evading all questions on its less than ethical and credible methods, that allegedly included  ‘staged’ footage and outright ‘plants’.

Could it be that the fallen from such manufactured grace can’t endure their pedestals? Is it a burden to be taken so seriously for one’s mere sleight of hand? The inveterate finger- pointer Tarun Tejpal, is only the latest fly caught in the honey-pot. He has been a man of many parts. A journalist with India Today and Outlook, then an Editor/Writer/Impresario/BJP baiter/Congress camp follower.  

Tejpal was about, apparently indulging his James Bond fantasy in a Goa hotel lift, with, as it turns out, an unwilling young whistleblowing woman. He acted promptly to try and diffuse his ‘lapse of judgement’, but his reputation, always a little ‘sharp’, may have sprouted a new layer of question marks. The rest of Civil Society, The Goa Government, quite a few of his employees, and much of the Media, are apparently not for turning. The Congress Party is,  predictably, keeping quiet.   

In a fractious poll-season, when the dirty tricks department of the beleaguered Congress Party is in full spate looking for straws in the wind, a self-goal like this from a loyal supporter is not helpful. Today, the largely pro-government media, mindful of the nature of the flow of sarkari advertisements it lives on, is still having to grudgingly admit that the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate is gaining ground with the people across the country. The broad media does this now, but is still very eager to find and report anything to the contrary. Even if it is trivia on fumbling  of dates and facts used rhetorically by NaMo on the stump!  But fortunately the reams of bizarre Rahulisms outdo NaMos bloopers anytime.

The ground below our feet is shifting relentlessly towards the new India that NaMo wishes to usher in. We can all feel it. It is a change that will break through many certainties and assumptions of a ruling elite grown rigid and arthritic.

The economy of India, gasping for relief is waiting for this development and marking time as best as it can.

Perhaps this sort of incident involving Tejpal is why people love sad songs. They reminds us of relentless, inexorable change, all that we have loved and lost, our betrayals and humiliations, the fading of youth, innocence, and sometimes, that ‘momentary lapse’ of what we call good sense.

In Portugal, sad songs have a traditional genre called the ‘Fado’, filled with longing and the sense of loss. It exists in the Manohar Parrikar ruled Goa too, but alas as an endangered species, in these days of homogenised global trends and a hungry tourist economy.  

The dowager Lady Grantham, in the popular fictional TV series Downton Abbey, about turn of the century British aristocracy, makes a robust remark that might be part of the answer: she says in Season 4, episode 8, ‘No life appears rewarding if you think too much about it’.  

And any fall from grace by definition is innately painful, and no less if it results in exile. The Congress Party and its hangers on must be looking at its philosophies and missteps in private, even as it packs its bags and prepares to relinquish its hold on power.  

(952 words)

November 21^st, 2013

Gautam Mukherjee

Honest Dupes

Honest Dupes

They say people who don’t break queues cannot get ahead. It explains the greedy chaos Indians can manifest faster than any flash-mobbing crowd elsewhere. Another saying says good guys finish last. In poll season this time however, thanks to the Supreme Court and a failed attempt to overrule the verdict via an ordinance, the ‘good guys’ stand a better chance because the convicts are debarred and removed from the field. Though, it doesn’t really do the trick in its entirety, because the crooks can rule by proxy via wives, sons, uncles, aunts, mistresses etc. and even technically untainted Hench- men; all of whom can stand in for them .   

Another rather famous near proverb does say that a rich man cannot enter the kingdom of heaven. In fact, that it is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle, it says. There might be truth as opposed to Socialism in this one, truly speaking, and gazing out at what is going on all around.  

Consider this. At a time when the Non-Performing Assets (NPAs) of public sector banks (PSUs), at the highest ever, are threatening to sink the banking system, it is revealed by the RBI that loans of rupees one lakh crores have been written off over the last 13 years. This means, over the whole of the current UPA regime, and a little before it too. The outstanding numbers, are even higher, closer to double this figure, at some Rs. 1, 85, 00,000 crores, principal and interest included,  but not all of it declared NPA or written-off as yet. That tends to be done at yearly rests of some Rs. 15,000 crores.

But then, declaring an outstanding amount as a bad debt actually helps the bank save taxes and  takes the pressure off trying to recover the money. Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of India Mr. KC Chakravarty, ‘flaying’ the PSU banks for this practice, calls this a ‘technical write-off’.  

Bottom line, this RBI certified figure means borrowers have walked off with Rs. 100,000 crores or more, 95% being ‘big borrowers’ from the ‘priority segment’ against lending mandated by the Government. Most , with at least a borrowing of Rs. 1 crore or above. This is a national outrage, of course, but the revelation seems to be swamped by all dimensions of other maladies.

When these borrowers do not repay an instalment of the debt and interest outstanding for at least 90 days beyond due date, it turns into an NPA. And this non-payment has resulted in the banks writing it off despite no pay- back/recovery or consequence for the borrower! What a neat way this is to embezzle millions!

The ‘big loans’ of over Rs. 1 crore, are authorised and sanctioned by the Boards of the banks, and so, incredibly, by way of excuses, there is no one down the ladder that goes out of his way to follow up for recovering the money.  And with a ‘technical write-off’ effected, there is no outstanding showing on the books of the banks either.

This is the case with the SBI, the biggest PSU bank with the largest amount of such NPAs, but smaller banks such as Bank of Maharashtra, Syndicate Bank and so on, are much more vulnerable to capsizing,  because they are listing with 30% of their loans turned bad.

No wonder then that the Government is issuing new banking licences, and hoping desperately to spread the muck all over the system, even as there is a fresh infusion of capital and a new set of debtors.

This loss, conveniently jettisoned from the books of the banks over 13 years, in aggregate, is more than the Rs. 60,000 crores worth of farmer loans written off by the UPA Government in the face of a  slew of farmer suicides. Though there too, in the waiver, there were a lot of big farmers benefited rather than the truly impoverished who never could qualify for bank loans even as they were the very core of the ‘priority segment’.

Besides, it played very well politically, and contributed to the re-election of the UPA in 2009. But this time around, on the threshold of 2014, the Bank NPAs are perceived to be of a piece with all the other corruptions and scams that seem to be riddling this government.  Could the loans be wilful and deliberate pay-offs to supporters and well-wishers using, as usual, public funds?

The Congress Party does have a tendency to apportion public money as if it were their own, and in order to obtain political mileage out of it. It is almost as if the PSU bankers are hand-in-glove with the defaulters.  But, it is also clear that in a rent-seeking regime such as we live under at present, any collusion of this kind would not be surprising. Neither is the myth-making of being the most interested in the poor and needy and the welfarism made to look as if it is coming from the party coffers.

What then is to be done about the vanished Rs. 100,000 crores?  Nothing. It is all legal and above-board.  Also, it is difficult to say how it will play.  After all, who knows who will vote for whom and why.

(874 words)

November 17^th, 2013

Gautam Mukherjee

Ask Not For Whom The Bell Tolls...

Ask Not For Whom The Bell Tolls…

Apart from demanding sympathy from the people for the sacrifice of the Gandhi family who have lost three of their members tragically, Congress has rolled out the same old pitch  about ‘Inclusiveness’, implying it somehow has a monopoly on this.

Economic innovation is, inexplicably at near zero and thus a huge disappointment coming from the Party that has been in Government for most of the time since Independence. And implementation on all fronts is even at a minus on a relative basis! Sometimes it appears that the Congress Party’s much publicised ‘concern’ for the poor needs a large pool of voters, some 300 million people at least, to stay poor in perpetuity.

The Congress Party may not have anything new to offer going into the general elections in 2014, but are certainly very keen on being re-elected. It is banking on its ‘Povertarian’ platform. Its predictable pitch includes dollops of economically damaging and badly administered Welfarism, full of more leakages and corruption than ever before.  

Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi has made quite a symbolic point of visiting villages and sleeping in the huts of the poor over the years. But as for changing things- even in his own impoverished constituency, let alone at a national level, there is very little done.

As for ‘Inclusiveness’, Congress’s own grisly record on murder and mayhem is glossed over. The most glaring is the 4,000 Sikhs killed over three days in October-end and November 1984 in the Capital of Delhi. Not so long ago, there was a bloody clash between the hordes of refugees from Bangladesh, encouraged by the Congress Party to the point of a demographic shift, and the angry native Assamese, in Congress ruled Assam. There are scores of other instances over the years, in Bihar, in UP, in then Congress ruled Gujarat, and other parts of the country. And yet, Congress thinks nothing of pointing fingers at others probably banking on public memory being short.

There is, besides this hypocrisy, a bankruptcy of new ideas, particularly modern ones. This disappoints our highly aspirational citizenry, a majority of whom are very young and many of whom are Muslim. At the same time, the international community, that had high hopes for India, is disappointed with India’s mismanagement 0f its affairs.  These high hopes have now been transferred to BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, who has a solid reformist image and a reputation both for administrative efficiency and delivering economic growth. The excitement is growing as NaMo is being received rapturously by huge crowds wherever he goes around the country.

Eminent economist and former Finance Ministry mandarin Shankar Acharya writes in the Business Standard that it is too late for the UPA to make any impact on the economy in its remaining months in power. This, just as the wholesale price index (WPI) hit over 7%, brought on by the obscene price of vegetables. The retail price index, of course, has been in double digits for more than a couple of years running, and almost everyone is feeling the pressure.

The bad news keeps pouring in on every aspect of the economy including the much vaunted Service Sector, which accounts for over 50% of the economy today. Even IT is struggling despite the fall in the value of the rupee, partly because the customers in the US and Europe are themselves in bad shape. And because we have, by and large, not learnt how to climb up the value chain of IT software throughout all the boom years gone before.

The Export sector is doing better because of the beaten down rupee, but still not very well. Besides, it accounts for around 12% of the economy. Manufacturing, where we have been falling behind for years due to dismal infrastructure support- roads, rail, power, water, land, is in the doldrums, and employment numbers, despite a large pool of qualified people, are not really growing.

Shankar Acharya implies that all of it is the consequence of previous ‘folly’ because the ‘wisdom’ of policies, if any made, is certainly not showing results. There is always a time lag. 

The prime minister may well call policy-making ‘complex’ as he did at the CBI’s 50^th Anniversary function, but the end results have been unimpressive under UPA rule.

Mr. Chidambaram’s present tenure is marked by the highly publicised VCES scheme that reprises his VDIS Scheme in a previous turn as Finance Minister. Will it succeed? Perhaps, but the yield is unlikely to put a dent in our economic woes. Apart from this initiative, by choking off gold imports, the CAD which was getting out of hand, is showing a sharp reduction, and might help the value of the rupee. Provided of course that the US does not begin tapering its stimulus which badly impacted the rupee months ago when it was expected to begin by September.

The retrospective tax provisions, sprung in a fit of high-handedness, are still on the table, despite the negative reaction of almost all would- be and existing foreign investors.

Indian born Indira Nooyi of Pepsi recently announced that her company was going to invest some 33,000/- crores up until 2020 in ‘manufacturing,  agriculture, infrastructure and innovation’, but India is no longer a ‘go to’ investment destination for most foreign companies. This, she said, is because of multiple reasons, including the economic slow-down on top of particularly high corruption, red-tape, difficult working conditions, the policy paralysis, and that retrospective tax slap administered to Vodafone.

The UPA, seen to have mismanaged the economy and reforms process, is widely expected by the foreign direct and institutional fraternity (FDI & FII) to be voted out of office in 2014.

While all macroeconomic efforts, says Acharya, is meant to reduce inflation and promote growth, the UPA has clearly failed to do either! Is it therefore any wonder that Narendra Modi and his development politics is pulling ahead of  UPA’s retrograde ideas? There is talk of a Modi Wave in the offing, and the country and the world is waiting.

(1,002 words)

November 14^th, 2013

Gautam Mukherjee

The Government's Artful Dodging

The Government’s Artful Dodging Gets Its Comeuppance

The apex of the UPA Government seems to get agitated lately whenever there is criticism coming its way - from any quarter whatsoever. It is having great difficulty with losing its grip on power after nearly 10 years. For long it has only been comfortable pointing fingers at, or condemning others, in superior and smug tones. But now, Congress in particular is smarting at every, largely justified, negative comment or assessment, given the dismal performance of the UPA. It is resentful and defensive. It does not like being at the receiving end. Its vote-bank, divide and rule politics seems to be letting it down.

This irrespective of whether the point of order is coming from an arm of the government itself, such as the CAG or the CBI. Or other agencies at large, including the FIIs, the Media, Civil Society, RTI based queries, sovereign rating agencies, or even the Judiciary! The reason for this is obviously because it has an abundance of skeletons in its commodious cupboard; and even more round and about elsewhere, to answer for.

The credibility and performance of the UPA government, the economy, India’s standing in the world, is at an all-time low. This, even as the country has begun to go into the first of a series of State Assembly elections widely being called the ‘semi-final’.

So much so, that a chronically media shy but discredited prime minister has come out personally to muddy the waters and deflect attention from some of the inconvenient work being done by the CBI.  He has also been loyally backed up by the Finance Minister, who spoke in similar sonorous but morally challenged tones but also said little beyond ruminating on the semantics, while once again warning the CBI from going too far. Desperate times call for desperate measures, even it makes the government look like it is trying its best to menace and browbeat its own- far from independent, investigative agency.

The prime minister had a pedantic alibi ready. He made a distinction between ‘errors of judgement’  presumably made in ‘good faith’, and probably wilful ‘criminal acts’, This was the stick designed to get himself off the hook along with lofty claims over policy formulation. The carrot was his promise to defend the CBI’s right to work on as a legitimate (and obedient) tool of ‘the executive’. He is obviously not too keen about the widespread call, from the CBI itself, and many others, in the Opposition, in Civil Society etc. to be made ‘autonomous’. The CBI reposted that the government decisions should not deal in ‘impropriety’, particularly when it came to national assets.   

This effort on the part of the PM is clearly an attempt to muddy the waters, even as he is allegedly involved in at least two huge scams that ministers from his allied parties have done jail time for. So he went all out to chide the CBI, at its 50^th Anniversary function, for overstepping its brief. It was a carefully crafted and choreographed, motivated and transparent misinformation offensive.

Imagine that the CBI, long called the government’s own ‘caged parrot’ and ‘Congress Bureau of Investigation’, is now being accused by it of butting into the government’s policy-making! Ironically, it is seen as doing no wrong when it is pressuring the SP or the BSP. But now, how dare it bite the very hand that feeds!

The Opposition BJP has reacted by saying the government cannot expect to be shielded from its own corruption by diving under the eiderdown of its right to make policy. 

The prime minister seems to be trying hard to evade his prima facie involvement in the massive Coalgate and 2G scams.  He has long tried to stay aloof from the procession of rampant corruption under his watch, but lately, it is proving to be much more difficult.

Mr.Manmohan Singh also said that his government would do everything possible to defend the agency’s legitimacy, even as the  Gauhati High Court has held the CBI to be illegal. The Supreme Court has stayed the High Court’s order for now, but the controversy does cramp the government’s ability to use the CBI to bully political opponents, restive allies and others. Meanwhile, the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, says the CBI and even the  terrorist outfit, the IM, is being used against him by this self- same government.

Apart from the CAG and CBI, the Congress has also been trying to debunk negative comment and assessments against it from other quarters- in Parliament, in the Old and New Media, amongst Allies, within its own ranks and agencies, or the Opposition.  It is desperately looking for new laws to frame including one that is designed to play to the communal bogey.

It is challenging the veracity of independently commissioned Opinion Polls that say it will lose badly. It is accusing the FIIs and international brokerages that hope Mr. Narendra Modi and the BJP is voted in, with meddling in domestic politics.  Meanwhile the biggest global rating agency S&P, has threatened to lower India’s Sovereign Rating to ‘junk’ status if the right government is not elected. This is being interpreted as a hooded endorsement of Narendra Modi and the BJP. Various foreign governments are also shifting diplomatic position towards Narendra Modi. And some high profile if not electorally significant political parties such as the ever nimble National Conference, albeit with the father and son  sending out conflicting signals, and strongman Sharad Pawar’s NCP have indicated, that they may both be willing to support the NDA after the elections.

The economy, through it all, continues to languish. No reform measure has got off the ground in the last one year or more, and the rupee is under pressure once again.  One marker of the Government’s casting about for a solution is to belatedly call upon reformist Jagdish Bhagwati to add to the welfarist stance of Amartya Sen at a forthcoming seminar!

It is widely expected the BJP will win 3, if not all 4 Assembly Elections presently being held. In Delhi, even as BJP leads the polls, the spoiler effect, from the Aam Aadmi Party, could, if substantial enough, make Government formation difficult. Of course, the buzz may not translate into votes, particularly with certain worrying news items coming out about Arvind Kejriwal and his party.

When, and if, Congress and the UPA loses three out of four, or all four state elections, it will further demoralise them. But the inexorable slide down the slippery slope of power, curiously seems to be stirring up its more irrational and authoritarian tendencies rather than any significant soul- searching.

(1,100 words)

November 12^th 2013

Gautam Mukherjee

Inverting The Pyramid

Inverting The Pyramid

There’s more money to be made at the pointy top of the heap rather than at the broad bottom of the pile. The well- established marketing principle that backs this thesis talks of the virtues of high unit-value, good profit, less volume, therefore more manageability, and last but not least, reduced proportionate cost of selling. Most people at the top are easy to target and they always have the cash. All the marketer has to do is interest them in the product.

Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi may have belatedly recognised this very worthwhile resource as he takes a momentary pause from the aam aadmi he loves to champion, at least in a rhetorical sense, by his attempt to woo the captains of business. He did this recently, but as usual with a bizarre twist, he exhorted them to ‘revolt’ if they don’t like local conditions. He did not spell out how, but the Khas aadmi has been on a protest march for some time.

Mr. Gandhi may perhaps be made aware by one of his handlers that many Indian business houses are deeply disenchanted with economic policy and the stifling corruption here, and prefer to invest in expansion and markets abroad. They have been doing so, like Tata, Reliance, Mahindra and others, by buying over foreign brands along with their know-how, bouquet and goodwill. And without imposing Indian operational bosses on their foreign managements.

This thrust abroad is partially to experience less red tape and harassment from the Indian government, which has ramped up its powers to target business owners and executives, proudly threatening them with fines, retrospective taxes, arrest and and jail-time of late. And, of course, to seek higher profits in less moribund markets.

But, things are not easy abroad for Indian multinationals wrapped in the tricolour, because our country’s global image, and that of India Inc. as a consequence, has been sharply eroded during the rule of UPA II.

And there are very worthwhile successes of both foreign acquisitions and investment at the top of the line. Recent news reports state TATA paid what seemed a high 1.15 billion pounds sterling to buy Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) in 2008 from Ford, but have just turned in a profit, for this half year alone, at over 1 billion pounds!

This took JLR, and Tata Motors in tandem, to a 71% increase in profit. The profit spike comes despite Tata Motors’ tepid performance and perceived ‘desi’ quality compared to the many international brands of vehicles on offer here nowadays, and despite a dull domestic economy. Tata Motors is listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and its success, where Ford largely failed with JLR while running up massive losses, is being globally noted.

But unlike the ‘frugally engineered’ and Indian built Nano, launched just months before the JLR acquisition, which just hasn’t gained traction, the luxury segment brand acquisitions of car lover Ratan Tata, now Tata’s Chairman Emeritus, worked out very well indeed.

And the sales from the new Jaguar F Type sports car, the nifty Range Rover Sport, the beautifully designed Evoque, the well accepted Freelander, and even the full-dress Range Rover, are excellent, particularly amongst the aspirational and brand conscious Chinese.  Meanwhile, there is a new engine plant  just built, ramped up employment numbers at JLR, and plans to roll out more new models with lighter, non-corrosive aluminium bodies.

The base of the pyramid model (BOP), by way of contrast, involves, most famously, distribution of sachets of shampoo, packets of Pan Bahar and cigarettes sold in retail by the stick, and so on. Unilever, in India, has also tried adding creams and potions in miniature packs. The FMCG major was among the most enthusiastic at adopting the original Stuart Hart and the late CK Prahalad’s ‘inclusive’ formulation, first made in 2002. After all, billions of people are assumed to be the global target audience, particularly in India and Africa.

But sadly, cultivating the BOP ends up being uneconomical and disconnected. This even when NGOs are brought in to assist, because NGOs, with their lack of business acumen on average, tend to be bad at selling and distribution. There has been more success, ironically enough, with the so called ‘trickle up’ effect wherein the people at the BOP ask for what they want, and those responsive to the demand, act on it.

There has been substantive challenges to the BOP theory from, among others, University of Michigan’s Aneel Karnani.  Karnani called the BOP a ‘mirage’ in 2006, and urged marketers to think of a wider value proposition instead of an ‘exploitative’ one. Mr. Gandhi should perhaps take note when he blatantly tries to exploit the ‘poor vote’ at the BOP.

Today, after a good monsoon, high ‘support prices’ for the farmer and greater disposable income in rural areas, it will be seen again, as has been clear for some years, that the customer prefers  to buy his money’s worth of quality and quantity, and is just as clued in as the urban Indian. This is noted even as marketers display their wares in highly populated venues such as the Kumbh Mela.

Therefore, rural consumer behaviour when it comes to consumer durables, two-wheelers, tractor-trailers, farm implements, seeds, fertilizers, computers, cellphones, technology of various kinds, and aspirational items like cars, even if they are meant to be utilitarian, tend to follow urban buyer dynamics. The so- called poor and illiterate are influenced and informed by satellite television now and also demand performance and durability. They do not want things aimed at them which patronise them by having low price points because of minute quantity. This is not seen by the target consumer as a principal USP. The rural audience does not want low quality ‘cheap’ goods either.  

And so, despite Ratan Tata’s fond hope, the ubiquitous rural family on a bicycle or a scooter is not very keen on jumping into the toy-like 600 cc Nano after all. No one thinks it is a serious car, notwithstanding the initial amazement around the world at the near miracle of a $2,500 value proposition.

Aspiration and perception however rejects it as a kind of parody. And just as the top-end luxury car is not well supported on India’s still uneven road and service networks, neither is the Nano, despite its claims of hardiness. Besides its propensity to self- combust has not helped matters.

A Narendra Modi value proposition is grabbing the imagination of the nation and the world not because he has come from humble origins, but because he has converted his life into a shining example of aspiration and performance second to none. The aam aadmi finds this aspiration and achievement mantra resonates with him as the gargantuan crowds at Modi’s rallies seem to suggest. Obama did likewise in America and the country raised him up, the first black candidate, to the presidency of the US.

(1,148 words)

November 10^th 2013

Gautam Mukherjee

Whose Patel Is It Anyway?

Whose Patel Is It Anyway?

The perception juggernaut is moving inexorably in favour of Prime Ministerial Candidate Narendra Modi and the BJP.  And the nation’s economic markers are converging on the intensifying political campaigning. To paraphrase the supremely popular Jug Suraiya from a recent column in the Times of India; the choice is between NaMo style growth and aspiration, or RaGa style poverty politics, and the aspiration seems to be ringing many more bells.

The fact that Modi has risen high from very humble beginnings gives both authenticity and dignity to his efforts to reach out to India’s  common man. And his modernity, market-friendliness and comfort with technology does the same for aspirational India. And everyone is enthused by the possibility of NaMo unleashing the overall potential of this country.

Mainstream Media comment and coverage too is also tilting increasingly towards the fresh and robust NaMo narrative. On the part of the people, there is a certain impatience to get through these last stagnant days of UPA rule.

The incumbent prime minister is just marking days off his dwindling calendar in office, and there is no traction at all from any of the UPA’s efforts, including a projected and substantial reduction in the CAD.  Any good news from the UPA now is seen as having come too late to save it from itself. Almost every section of business and industry, the youth of the country, and the foreign investor, even foreign governments, albeit cautiously, are just waiting for a change.

The most vocal international supporters of an anticipated Narendra Modi led government seem to be the financial community. After all, they put their money where their mouth is. These FIIs have been pouring money into the stock markets, nearly $17 billiion this year to date. And it is only the FIIs literally who have taken the Sensex and Nifty to an all-time high.

   

Paradoxically, in the absence or near absence of growth in the real economy, the rupee is beginning to tumble again.

Following on from CLSA’s Chris Wood who plumped for a Narendra Modi led government, we have Goldman Sachs upgrading India as an investment destination and endorsing Modi, and now  US billionaire investor Jim Rogers who recently said “India needs new politicians”.

Congress meanwhile is having kittens on practically every issue as it is relentlessly pushed onto the back foot by public opinion. It is expected to be under even more pressure after the so-called ‘semi-final’.

 The four coming Assembly Elections are expected to have BJP win in Chattisgarh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh. They might just pull it off in Delhi as well. This because the  spoiler Aam Aadmi Party  has begun to falter  on its civil society platform and reveal itself as just another vote bank politics player. It will be interesting to see what happens in Haryana after these elections.

On legacy matters too, there is an exposure and unravelling of Congress doublespeak. Why should the Congress leadership react with such defensiveness if any of the Independence era stalwarts are celebrated by any other party?  Are the heroes of the national struggle the exclusive province of a tired, corrupt and discredited dispensation?

After all, Congress would have us believe, over the last 66 years, that the Nehru-Gandhi family practically ‘invented’ the idea of India. Both Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi talk ad nauseam about the onerous responsibility they have shouldered as a family, portraying it, rather brazenly, as totally selfless.

Mahatma Gandhi, who mentored Nehru, and fashioned the winning strategy that gained us independence, actually gets less play. This being the ‘Father of the Nation’ and being featured on our currency notes notwithstanding!

It is ironic that this constant harping on the Nehru-Gandhi family  contribution to the nation echoes the British Raj  and Rudyard Kipling’s notions of the ‘White Man’s Burden’. If running India was  indeed a ‘burden’ for the British, it is also true that they compensated themselves very amply for their trouble.  

How much India itself gained then, or indeed now, is however, debatable, and at the crux of the problem.  In addition, much of current day vote-bank politics of the Congress also resembles the British policy of divide and rule.  And while the British ran the portfolios of revenue and law and order very well, we cannot say as much for the UPA. But the fact that Congress believes 70% of the people need to be given near free food after 66 years since independence speaks for itself.

The hullaballoo over Narendra Modi highlighting Sardar Patel as a ‘true secularist’ as opposed to the ’pseudo secularism’ of today’s Congress is thoroughly unwarranted. The attempt to reduce Sardar Patel to a mere Congress functionary and Home Minister under Nehru is insulting to the people of this country.

Sardar Patel, despite his active support to both the Mahatma and Nehru, always stood to the political right of Jawaharlal Nehru and is therefore correct and appropriate inspiration for the BJP.  It may be speculated afresh and not for the first time, that if Patel was allowed to handle Kashmir as he did the amalgamation of the other princely states, including Hyderabad and Junagadh, there may not have been any POK today. 

Certainly the United Nations would not have been brought into what is now clearly seen as a bilateral matter. However, this is now our bed and we must lie in it.

After Narendra Modi is elected Prime Minister in 2014, Kashmir and its painful exemptions under Article 370 may well be revisited, for the security and economic benefits of solving this festering problem, given a strong enough mandate for the NDA.

Not just Vallabhbhai Patel, but every other  leader, pre and post- Independence, has been relegated to the back shelves since Independence. And every act of near neglect has been employed to reduce them in stature gradually with a callous view to rub out their memory from the public consciousness altogether.

Dr. B.R.Ambedkar has got some limited play despite the Nehru-Gandhi led Congress. This because he is a ‘Dalit’ icon, even if the term was not used in his lifetime. But Dr. Ambedkar’s   caste brethren do run  in the corridors of power today, and so they, particularly Mayawati’s BSP, saw to it that the Gandhi-Nehru combine couldn’t relegate Ambedkar to the dustbin of history.

But hardly anyone else is mentioned.  So it is rather comical when the current day Congresswallahs get upset about NaMo’s project to build the world’s biggest statue of  Sardar Patel.  Who is stopping them from building collossusses of  Jawaharlal Nehru, Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi visible from all the satellites we have become so good at hurling up to the heavens after all?

(1,107 words)

November 7^th 2013

Gautam Mukherjee

Samvat 2070 Begins On A Wing And A Prayer

Samvat 2070 Begins On A Wing And A Prayer

The Stock Market, nominally at an all-time high, is reviving on American money in a few, perhaps 15 ‘defensive’ Sensex stocks. These are stocks that benefit from rupee weakness such as Pharmaceuticals and IT.

The wider sectors of the stock market could climb ‘A wall of worry’ as Ramesh Damani, a well- known stock market veteran puts it, and become a broad-based bull market.  Damani has plumped for a Nifty level of 7,500 by next Diwali, some 25,000 on the Sensex,  and does not see a significant downside given the direction the political wind is blowing. Damani says sometimes the market starts to rise across the board in highly adverse conditions anticipating better times with uncanny prescience. This year, says Damani, Iran has out-performed impressively despite high inflation, political churn and a weak economy.

   

Our market, like others that break out, would need to believe however that good times are around the corner. This must be why the Sensex and Nifty climbed up from lows in August to all-time highs today, after over 5 years. And this could come from the underlying excitement of anticipating a Narendra Modi led central government in 2014. This is the verdict of iconic bull and billionaire investor Rakesh Jhunjhunwala  who thinks the NDA could bag as many as 240 seats this general election!

But as things stand, things are weak to worse in business and industry, in the direct equity market, in the gold and silver traditional investing community reeling also from recent losses, and in mutual funds facing massive redemptions.

The so called  ‘equity cult’, growing between the period June 2004 to January 2008 when the Sensex climbed from around 3,000 to 21,000 points, has been over for years. It has been shot through with huge losses and pessimism since the world financial meltdown in 2008, though it never fell below around 8,000 points on the Sensex.

But the sense of the FII mood is that though the Indian stock market represents some 2% of the valuation of world stock markets, it has failed to quite attract 2% of world investment through all the UPA years. This may be about to change post-elections.  

However, the big fear is how the markets, and indeed the Indian economy will react to the US Federal Reserve commencing its tapering programme  scheduled now for 2014. Will the investment flows that the Indian Government depends on to not only boost the stock market but also to manage its current account defict (CAD) manage to withstand the changes it will bring?

Even as the FIIs are investing a smattering of the massive stimulus money from the US now, which   is pushing up the Sensex numbers, the Indian institutional investor has continued to sell on every rise. There is no confidence in the stock market on the prospects of India Inc. domestically as yet. This, despite periodic attempts to talk up the market by the Finance Minister, the RBI Governor, various market veterans. The last category  have a vested interest, of course, because they are   mostly also heads of major brokerages. Still, until the retail investor returns, no bull market can sustain. But Jhunjhunwala  thinks the retail investor is bound to come as the market climbs higher.

The current malaise boils down to the fact that the Indian Government has been completely listless, confused and paralysed these last few years. The new high is being called ‘nominal’, with FIIs putting in $15 billion into a handful of stocks over  Samvat 2069 just past, while locals have sold $10 billion worth on every rise. There is no broader excitement because the bulk of equities are at figures that would aggregate to a Sensex level of 10,000 to 13,000, while a miniscule handful are outperforming based on foreign investment.

Other stock market worthies, while not blatantly rooting for a Narendra Modi led BJP government, are saying they don’t think a third-front government supported by Congress will be good for the market sentiment because its stability will be questionable for a start. Nor do they think Congress will have the numbers to lead a strong coalition afresh in 2014.

This kind of prognosis appearing from every opinion poll as well, has prompted Congress to appeal to the Election Commission to ban trend polls, calling them unrepresentative and unscientific. Of course this is because all of them have consistently been predicting a precipitous Congress decline.

Narendra Modi on the other hand is viewed as a panacea for the troubles of business and industry, for stalled GDP growth, for our weak response to terrorism and cross border infiltration, for the revival of the financial markets including the worth of the rupee, the revival of exports etc. The extent to which his vigorous campaigning on myriad issues that matter to India and Indians has influenced the market is definitely indicative of the change to come.

But of course, there are people both in India and abroad who do not want to see a strong India led by a visionary leader who is decisive and efficient. This would prevent many of these people from exploiting the troubled situation that is prevalent today, and threatens the status quo, even if it is in terminal decline. For these people, a campaign of  relentless vilification and vicious name- calling has become a staple in the hope that it will influence the voter against Narendra Modi and his apparent desire to lead the country out of the morass it finds itself in.

All in all though, Samvat 2071 should see significant gains in the stock markets.

(925 words)

November 4^th, 2013

Gautam Mukherjee