Opinion Poll Favourite

Opinion Poll Favourite

A new ORG opinion poll, commissioned by the India Today Group, says the BJP led by Dr. Harsh Vardhan will form the next Delhi Government. And that it will do so on its own with 40 seats. This, on the basis of a 37% share of the popular vote which the BJP expects will surge to over 40% on the 4^th of December, and actually improve the seat tally further.

Another  recent poll, conducted by ACNielsen for ABP  News and Dainik Bhaskar gives the BJP 32 seats for sure but says it could ramp up to 40 if there is a 2%  additional vote swing in its favour. As many as 15-20 seats could be decided likewise but none of the others can hope to win outright. The BJP election campaign, no doubt encouraged by such forecasts, is all set to go into high gear over the remaining days.   

The Polio-busting medical doctor has quickly garnered the highest approval rating for the post of Chief Minister . The Congress however is staring at its deficits of blatant corruption juxtaposed with massive prices.

Unable to countenance its imminent ouster, Congress continues to boycott  discussions  on Opinion Polls calling them ‘unscientific’ and ‘wrong’. Perhaps this  is their way of shooting the messenger before going into a mighty sulk.

Bagging Delhi in addition to the states of Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, all projected as BJP wins by several polls, will go a long way to provide a boost to the BJP campaign for the Centre. And all this in prospect is already starting to boost the economy.

Nomura, the Japanese Brokerage with an international footprint, is the latest to join Goldman Sachs and CLSA in predicting a BJP victory with a coalition led by Mr. Narendra Modi. Nomura goes on to expect a fillip to the GDP post elections to 5.7%  per annum and rising from the just over 4% it is estimated to be at present.  

Mr.Montek Singh Ahluwalia at the Planning Commission has also said a GDP growth figure of 6% is not difficult to achieve, given some changes in policy. The mystery lies in why the UPA hasn’t done anything about these required changes.

But Nomura suggesting that NaMo will, is great news to look forward to, after nearly five harrowing years of  experiencing the economy being strangled to a standstill.

Most of Business and Industry is groaning under huge debt burdens, acquired in more optimistic times and now caught out in mid- stride. Debt, an essential component of leveraged growth strategies, is very difficult to service in the absence of demand and adequate sales. The policy environment, obsessed only with inflation has nevertheless failed to bring it down. That is why the rupee has lost a third of its value under UPA rule.

The real estate sector, a good barometer for what has gone wrong, is sitting on large inventories, massive debt, high interest rates and slow sales. It is painfully marking time till after the general elections. There are very few transactions despite discounts and subvention inducements, but this too is expected to start easing after the magic month of May 2014.

All of India Inc. except those who are beholden to the patronage of the UPA, are waiting for Narendra Modi, who is widely seen to be an incorruptible ‘doer’.

And this time, the Congress and its friends, bereft of any ideas beyond freebies for the poor, are expected to cool their heels in the Opposition for a very long time. Their stalwarts can sense this already and are terrified at the prospect. Nevertheless, the Congress, it is anticipated, will increasingly suffer from a leadership and policy vacuum that is evident even now. But the days of mere Socialist rhetoric without delivering the goods are truly over. 

India is a country populated largely by young people between 15 and 35 years of age who have surging aspirations and can’t be bothered with a governance that perpetuates poverty.

The UPA as it stands is expected to undergo many defections after the general elections. Conversely, the NDA ranks are poised to swell; particularly when the BJP is seen to have bagged most of the seats towards a majority figure on its own. Again, foreign observers have projected the BJP will win well over 200 seats on its own. 

The constant effort on the part of the Congress and its adherents to depict the BJP as communal is simply not working this time. This is a major strategic plank lost to the river of change for the Congress. Most Muslims, Christians and other minorities have not seen any improvement in their circumstances under UPA rule. They are now being vocal about their disappointment.

The BJP makes no bones about being an ‘equal opportunity’ entity. However, it has certainly not discriminated against the minorities and the vulnerable in all the states it runs. Even the welfare programmes and PDS initiated by the Centre are invariably better administered by the BJP ruled states!

The perceptible BJP wave is gaining real traction now. It has taken the prospective outcome in the Delhi state elections from a hung Assembly to an outright win projected in just over this month! Much of this swing is being attributed to NaMo’s growing popularity. Winning Delhi ‘city state’, as Mr. Modi puts it, will be a prestigious coup. It will come in addition to the wins at the municipal level in Delhi and help better coordination. It will also be a harbinger of the crucial surge to come for the main prize.

(925 words)

November 28^th, 2013

Gautam Mukherjee