Ask Not For Whom The Bell Tolls…
Apart from demanding sympathy from the people for the
sacrifice of the Gandhi family who have lost three of their members tragically,
Congress has rolled out the same old pitch
about ‘Inclusiveness’, implying it somehow has a monopoly on this.
Economic innovation is, inexplicably at near zero and thus
a huge disappointment coming from the Party that has been in Government for
most of the time since Independence. And implementation on all fronts is even
at a minus on a relative basis! Sometimes it appears that the Congress Party’s
much publicised ‘concern’ for the poor needs a large pool of voters, some 300
million people at least, to stay poor in perpetuity.
The Congress Party may not have anything new to offer going
into the general elections in 2014, but are certainly very keen on being
re-elected. It is banking on its ‘Povertarian’ platform. Its predictable pitch
includes dollops of economically damaging and badly administered Welfarism,
full of more leakages and corruption than ever before.
Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi has made quite a
symbolic point of visiting villages and sleeping in the huts of the poor over
the years. But as for changing things- even in his own impoverished
constituency, let alone at a national level, there is very little done.
As for ‘Inclusiveness’, Congress’s own grisly record on
murder and mayhem is glossed over. The most glaring is the 4,000 Sikhs killed
over three days in October-end and November 1984 in the Capital of Delhi. Not
so long ago, there was a bloody clash between the hordes of refugees from
Bangladesh, encouraged by the Congress Party to the point of a demographic
shift, and the angry native Assamese, in Congress ruled Assam. There are scores
of other instances over the years, in Bihar, in UP, in then Congress ruled
Gujarat, and other parts of the country. And yet, Congress thinks nothing of
pointing fingers at others probably banking on public memory being short.
There is, besides this hypocrisy, a bankruptcy of new
ideas, particularly modern ones. This disappoints our highly aspirational
citizenry, a majority of whom are very young and many of whom are Muslim. At
the same time, the international community, that had high hopes for India, is disappointed
with India’s mismanagement 0f its affairs. These high hopes have now been transferred to
BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, who has a solid reformist
image and a reputation both for administrative efficiency and delivering
economic growth. The excitement is growing as NaMo is being received
rapturously by huge crowds wherever he goes around the country.
Eminent economist and former Finance Ministry mandarin
Shankar Acharya writes in the Business
Standard that it is too late for the UPA to make any impact on the economy
in its remaining months in power. This, just as the wholesale price index (WPI)
hit over 7%, brought on by the obscene price of vegetables. The retail price
index, of course, has been in double digits for more than a couple of years
running, and almost everyone is feeling the pressure.
The bad news keeps pouring in on every aspect of the
economy including the much vaunted Service Sector, which accounts for over 50%
of the economy today. Even IT is struggling despite the fall in the value of
the rupee, partly because the customers in the US and Europe are themselves in
bad shape. And because we have, by and large, not learnt how to climb up the
value chain of IT software throughout all the boom years gone before.
The Export sector is doing better because of the beaten
down rupee, but still not very well. Besides, it accounts for around 12% of the
economy. Manufacturing, where we have been falling behind for years due to
dismal infrastructure support- roads, rail, power, water, land, is in the
doldrums, and employment numbers, despite a large pool of qualified people, are
not really growing.
Shankar Acharya implies that all of it is the consequence
of previous ‘folly’ because the ‘wisdom’ of policies, if any made, is certainly
not showing results. There is always a time lag.
The prime minister may well
call policy-making ‘complex’ as he did at the CBI’s 50th Anniversary
function, but the end results have been unimpressive under UPA rule.
Mr. Chidambaram’s present tenure is marked by the highly
publicised VCES scheme that reprises his VDIS Scheme in a previous turn as
Finance Minister. Will it succeed? Perhaps, but the yield is unlikely to put a
dent in our economic woes. Apart from this initiative, by choking off gold
imports, the CAD which was getting out of hand, is showing a sharp reduction,
and might help the value of the rupee. Provided of course that the US does not
begin tapering its stimulus which badly impacted the rupee months ago when it
was expected to begin by September.
The retrospective tax provisions, sprung in a fit of
high-handedness, are still on the table, despite the negative reaction of
almost all would- be and existing foreign investors.
Indian born Indira Nooyi of Pepsi recently announced that
her company was going to invest some 33,000/- crores up until 2020 in
‘manufacturing, agriculture,
infrastructure and innovation’, but India is no longer a ‘go to’ investment
destination for most foreign companies. This, she said, is because of multiple
reasons, including the economic slow-down on top of particularly high
corruption, red-tape, difficult working conditions, the policy paralysis, and
that retrospective tax slap administered to Vodafone.
The UPA, seen to have mismanaged the economy and reforms
process, is widely expected by the foreign direct and institutional fraternity
(FDI & FII) to be voted out of office in 2014.
While all macroeconomic efforts, says Acharya, is meant
to reduce inflation and promote growth, the UPA has clearly failed to do
either! Is it therefore any wonder that Narendra Modi and his development
politics is pulling ahead of UPA’s
retrograde ideas? There is talk of a Modi Wave in the offing, and the country
and the world is waiting.
(1,002
words)
November
14th, 2013
Gautam
Mukherjee
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